Predictions for 2017?

[Weather-history]

For 2016, there were two hunches. We knew that we had a very strong El Niño last winter and these seem to favour a below average April for the UK and the Junes' of years ending in "6" tend to be warmer than average and this came into being. 

For 2017? 

January: mixture of unsettled and dry spells. Milder than average but not by much. 

February: coldest month of winter containing the most snowfalls and most frosts. My hunch a really cold February is around the corner within the next three years.

March: Cool, some frost and snow but one or two short warm spells as well.

April:  Not had a really cold April since 1989 anomaly wise for CET. Is one around the corner? I think so. This year? I'm going for a little bit warmer than average April

May: disappointing month, wetter than average, below average sunshine.

June: recent Junes ending in "7" have been tended to the extreme either with temperature, rainfall or sunshine butI'm going for a normal June, average, temps, rainfall.

July: warmer than average, reasonable.

August: best month of the summer in terms of warmth, sunshine, thundriest month of the summer.

September: not a bad month, dryish, reasonably sunny, a little bit warmer than average.

October: windier, wetter, month with some gales, mildish.

November: windy, wet, quite a stormy month.

December: Not as stormy as November, storminess decreases as month progresses. Fairly anticyclonic end to 2017. 

 

Total guess work on my part.

[Matthew.]

Really interested in summer 2017. I think we have some hope with a gentle neutral or El Niño, warm Atlantic Ocean hopefully, Solar not close enough to minimum yet, Positive tropical forcing influence recently. As ever we need weak zonal winds. I'm feeling positive at this early stage of a more anti-cyclonic pattern. All a guess as ever but feel like some good signs are there. The dry conditions recently will be exasperated in summer.

[Lettucing Gutted]

2017 will be a very horrible year and the hottest on record at 15.5C CET.  The Globe will average 16C making it the hottest year on record Globally.  This summer the polar jet reaches the Artic, dies and leaves a "weak polar stream" swirling around a dying Greenland PV.  The subtropical jet also reaches the Artic and replaces the dead polar jet.  A main "weak subtropical stream" swirls around the North Pole whilst an even weaker "weak subtropical stream" merges with the last "weak polar stream" swirling around the dying Greenland PV.  The African Monsoon Trough finally jumps the Sahara and Mediterranean into Europe and affects Britain and Europe from the 1000mb to the 500mb level with an outflow ridge on top to form the British Monsoon system.  The British Monsoon forms a monster Mid-Atlantic Ridge and a monster Bartlett Ridge sending heatwaves to obliterate the last of the Artic Ice.  Britain always remains mild if not very mild in winter and always remains hot if not very hot in the other seasons but swings from flood to drought so many times you just can't keep up!  Britain gets monster floods from the interaction of the British Monsoon with Spanish Plumes which also create Supercell Thunderstorms and F5 Twisters.  However Britain also gets monster droughts when ex-hurricanes and/or rare "weak stream" troughs send the monster Mid-Atlantic Ridges toppling over Britain and merging into the monster Bartlett Ridges.  I am also expecting an explosive "Methane Burp" to occur in 2017 as the warming oceans destabilise Methane Hydrates.  Combined with yet more water vapour from the warming oceans, this Methane Burp will worsen global warming more than ever this year.

January the warmest on record 9.5C

February the warmest on record 10C

March the warmest on record 12C

April the warmest on record 14C

May the warmest on record 17.5

June the warmest on record 20.5C

July the warmest on record 22C

August the warmest on record 21.5C

September the warmest on record 19C

October the warmest on record 15.5C

November the warmest on record 13C

December the warmest on record 12C

2017 will be the Bob Beamon Year of CET Warming.

Edited December 24, 2016 by Lettucing Gutted

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Jan, raging zonality, flooding worries, relentless PV, gales and above average temps

Feb, Atlantic to dominate, still flood risk, milder than average

Mar, dominated by the Atlantic, wet and windy, above average temps

Apr, change, lots of HLB, mainly northerly and easterly winds, below average temps, wet south, dry north

May, low pressure to dominate, mainly easterly winds, at times northerly, cool and below average temps

Jun, starting cool and unsettled, east/north winds, becoming warmer later, weak Atlantic systems, avg temps

Jul. perhaps a Spanish plume 4th-6th, cooler 7th, warmish month, but mainly unsettled, temps around average

Aug, warmest month of '17, maybe 2 plumes! 1st-3rd, then perhaps 22-24th, otherwise mix of sun and cloud

Sep, 2nd warmest month of '17, plume from 5th-7th, decent month

0ct, fairly settled, could be extension to 'summer, 17-19° 1st half, much cooler 2nd half

Nov, starting fairly settled, average temps, but by around 20th, signs of the zonal express, risk of flooding to end

Dec, Atlantic onslaught, gales and rain to dominate, contender of one of warmest,wettest ever

[cheese]

Scorchio summer 2017, hottest of all time, 40C as far north as Inverness.

[NeilN]

I think Jan to March will have some wintry spells intercepted with mild. Spring will have a below average March and April and a wet May. I'm also thinking we're due a proper duff summer. Think something like 1988 / 2012 - very wet and very below average. 

[cheese]

1 minute ago, nn2013 said:

I think Jan to March will have some wintry spells intercepted with mild. Spring will have a below average March and April and a wet May. I'm also thinking we're due a proper duff summer. Think something like 1988 / 2012 - very wet and very below average. 

No way - if anything we are due a proper hot summer. 2007, 2008, 2012 - that's a lot of bad summers in a short period of time. July 2013 on the other hand is the only hot summer month of the past decade.

Edited December 18, 2016 by cheese

[NeilN]

Just now, cheese said:

No way - if anything we are due a proper hot summer. 2007, 2008, 2012 - that's a lot of bad summers in a short period of time.

I dunno what it is cheese, but I think we're due something like those three. I mean I could be totally wrong and 1976's record goes. 

[Lettucing Gutted]

31 minutes ago, nn2013 said:

I dunno what it is cheese, but I think we're due something like those three. I mean I could be totally wrong and 1976's record goes. 

I find it remarkable that in the early years of this century we have already broken the spring and autumn warm seasonal CET records, yet summer and winter have not yet done the same.

[LetItSnow!]

My totally random prediction for 2017...

January will see below average temperatures and rainfall, the best of the wintry weather occurring in the second half of the month.

February continues to the dry theme, maybe even very dry with high pressure close by. Probably a fair bit colder than average, with a large deal of frosty sunshine though there will be some snow at times.

March sees it turn milder and wetter, although some colder weather could be possible early in the month. Possible very mild spell later on.

April sees a flip back to cooler than average temps, perhaps significantly colder than average with a risk of snow, even to lower levels further south. Very wet.

May keeps it cool and unsettled, possibly another very wet month. 

June sees some periods of warm and settled weather, but then turns very unsettled towards the end of the month. Above average temperatures, but not overly so.

July sees low pressure totally take control giving quite a dismal month, probably the coolest since 1988 and also very wet.

August sees it turn warmer and drier, though temperatures only average to slightly above average. Probably quite dry.

September is probably the most settled month of the extended summer, quite warm at times with a heatwave or two. Significantly drier than average.

October sees some settled weather early on before turning very wet and stormy as the month progresses. Near average temperatures.

November keeps it very unsettled with rain and gales battering the country, especially the north and Scotland. Significantly milder than average.

December turns it less stormy, but still fairly unsettled with westerly winds dominating. Colder later on. Milder and slightly wetter than average. 

Edited December 19, 2016 by LetItSnow!

[Relativistic]

19 hours ago, cheese said:

No way - if anything we are due a proper hot summer. 2007, 2008, 2012 - that's a lot of bad summers in a short period of time. July 2013 on the other hand is the only hot summer month of the past decade.

Would disagree. Summer 2013 was very hot here in the south-east, 2014 was hot and very thundery, and 2016 was very warm throughout (May to September) with frequent plumes bringing 30C+ plus. Since I took an interest in the weather, Summer 2016 was the first time that 30C was breached in July, August, and September (multiple times during each of those months, might I add).

As for 2017, here are my guesses...

January: Generally dominated by south-westerlies from an Azores high influence. Very mild minima, maxima around the 10-12C mark for most places. A lack of frost.

February: A continuation of January, until the final third, when a monster Scandi high sets in. Bitter easterlies will meet Atlantic storms to create blizzard conditions in some areas, with drifts up the sides of houses.

March: The Scandi block persists, bringing more snow and bitterly cold temperatures. The final third of the month sees a thaw set in.

April: A typical April with changeable conditions, sunshine and showers, hail at times. Occasional warm shots.

May: Cool, cloudy, and damp, much like May 2013.

June: Starting off very cool from a stream of northerlies, but warm shots later on.

July: Mixed and overall average in terms of temperatures, sunshine, and rainfall.

August: Warmer than average and thundery in many places. Wetter than average.

September: Warm to start and a freak storm mid-month, before returning to more normal late-September conditions.

October: Anticyclonic and cool, the first frosts of the season in many places. Sunnier and drier than average, with some notably cold minima.

November: Another anticyclonic month, similar to November 2016. Plenty of frost.

December: Atlantic kicks in, storms abound. Wet, windy, and very mild.

 

Total guesswork, but probably as good as most other LRFs.

Edited December 19, 2016 by Relativistic

[cheese]

Just now, Relativistic said:

Would disagree. Summer 2013 was very hot here in the south-east, 2014 was hot and very thundery, and 2016 was very warm throughout (May to September) with frequent plumes bringing 30C+ plus. Since I took an interest in the weather, Summer 2016 was the first time that 30C was breached in July, August, and September (multiple times during each of those months, might I add).

Those summers were definitely warm, but not hot. 

[cheeky_monkey]

32 minutes ago, cheese said:

Those summers were definitely warm, but not hot. 

I would agree about 2014 & 16 neither were hot summers..warm with some short lived hot spells thrown in..but not in the same class of a proper hot summer..where heat is sustained for long periods of times..im not sure about summer 2017..it has the potential to be a hot one..really depends how spring pans out.

[Optimus Prime]

I did quite well with 2016's prediction back in 2015. Only mistake I made was going for a rather cold December. Looks like the annual CET will be similar to 2015.

2017;

January; Probably becoming more settled and colder as the month progresses after a mild start. Overall a little colder than normal. Perhaps the first sub 3.0c month since March 2013

February; Probably mild and cyclonic but not exceptional

March; Warmer than average and settled. Similar to 2003

April; Warm and settled

May; Near normal temperatures

June; Cool

July; Cool

August; Very warm

September; Slightly warmer than average

October; Cold

November; Slightly mild

December; Mild

This will be the coolest year since 2013

[Relativistic]

6 hours ago, cheese said:

Those summers were definitely warm, but not hot. 

I guess it depends on opinion. July 2013 felt very hot at the time, most days had maxima in the upper 20Cs, with some 30C+ days in there too (1st August saw 34C I think in Oxfordshire). It was also a top 10 July for the CET.

Lots of heat records were broken in Summer 2016, admittedly all during short, sharp plumes (of which there were many).

From my perspective it may have felt hotter because I spent all of those Summers in the south-east. Not at all unusual to have markedly higher temperatures than the rest of the country during Summer.

[cheese]

48 minutes ago, Relativistic said:

I guess it depends on opinion. July 2013 felt very hot at the time, most days had maxima in the upper 20Cs, with some 30C+ days in there too (1st August saw 34C I think in Oxfordshire). It was also a top 10 July for the CET.

Lots of heat records were broken in Summer 2016, admittedly all during short, sharp plumes (of which there were many).

From my perspective it may have felt hotter because I spent all of those Summers in the south-east. Not at all unusual to have markedly higher temperatures than the rest of the country during Summer.

It doesn't matter where in the country you were living - none of those summers were hot. July 2013 was a hot month but June and August were not. 

 

Edited December 19, 2016 by cheese

[Relativistic]

16 hours ago, cheese said:

It doesn't matter where in the country you were living - none of those summers were hot. July 2013 was a hot month but June and August were not. 

 

Sigh, you never change. Other people simply cannot have opinions that differ from your own.

Your idea of a hot Summer (where all three Summer months are hot) is absolutely insane. Summer 2006, one of the hottest in recorded history, wouldn't fit this definition; August 2006 was not a hot month by any measure.

It's like saying that a Winter can only be said to be cold if December, January and February are all very cold months themselves. And that very rarely happens.

Your expectations are terribly unrealistic. We are not overdue a hot Summer if that is your definition. We never are. Such occurrences are extremely rare. And it's delusional to think otherwise.

 

*** EDIT ***

Since August 2013 does not fall into the hot category, with a CET anomaly of +1.1C relative to the standard 1961-90 average, then perhaps we should define a hot month as one where the anomaly is +1.5C or greater. In CET history, there have been just three Summers where all three months exceeded this anomaly: 1826, 1976, and 2003. That speaks for itself.

Edited December 20, 2016 by Relativistic

[Matthew.]

If we have any  months like the following I would be overjoyed:

August 2003

July 2006

April 2007

April 2011

March 2012

July 2013

April 2015. 

Would prefer these in summer but if it has to be spring so be it.

 

Edited December 21, 2016 by Matthew Wilson

[Guest]

May June July August September hot hot hot ! Bring on global warming!

[cheese]

On 12/20/2016 at 08:30, Relativistic said:

Sigh, you never change. Other people simply cannot have opinions that differ from your own.

Your idea of a hot Summer (where all three Summer months are hot) is absolutely insane. Summer 2006, one of the hottest in recorded history, wouldn't fit this definition; August 2006 was not a hot month by any measure.

It's like saying that a Winter can only be said to be cold if December, January and February are all very cold months themselves. And that very rarely happens.

Your expectations are terribly unrealistic. We are not overdue a hot Summer if that is your definition. We never are. Such occurrences are extremely rare. And it's delusional to think otherwise.

You are going to have to point me towards the post I made where I claimed all 3 months have to be hot in order for a summer to be hot. Otherwise, you are attributing words to me that I never said. 

Summer 2013 was 0.8C above the 1981-2010 average. It was a warm summer, but not a hot summer. 

Edited December 21, 2016 by cheese

[Relativistic]

Posted twice for some reason, see the post below.

Edited December 22, 2016 by Relativistic

[Relativistic]

11 hours ago, cheese said:

You are going to have to point me towards the post I made where I claimed all 3 months have to be hot in order for a summer to be hot. Otherwise, you are attributing words to me that I never said. 

Here.

On 19/12/2016 at 17:18, cheese said:

It doesn't matter where in the country you were living - none of those summers were hot. July 2013 was a hot month but June and August were not. 

 

It sounds to me that that was strongly implied here. Of course, there could have been a terrible misunderstanding, but I fail to see what else you could mean by this?

11 hours ago, cheese said:

Summer 2013 was 0.8C above the 1981-2010 average. It was a warm summer, but not a hot summer. 

There is plenty of analysis you could do here, but at 45th warmest on record since 1659, you would expect a Summer as hot or hotter than 2013 once every 8 years. Given that 2003 and 2006 were not long before that, and that 2016 was even hotter at 39th warmest, it still stands that it's pretty unreasonable to say that we are due a hotter one next year. You could argue that it's unfair to compare to years during the LIA, but since 1900 you only expect a 2013-or-hotter Summer once every 7 years.

If we're talking really hot Summers, like an overall average of 17C+, then since 1900 you can expect one every 17 years. The last was 2006.

Edited December 22, 2016 by Relativistic

[Matthew.]

3 hours ago, Relativistic said:

Here.

It sounds to me that that was strongly implied here. Of course, there could have been a terrible misunderstanding, but I fail to see what else you could mean by this?

There is plenty of analysis you could do here, but at 45th warmest on record since 1659, you would expect a Summer as hot or hotter than 2013 once every 8 years. Given that 2003 and 2006 were not long before that, and that 2016 was even hotter at 39th warmest, it still stands that it's pretty unreasonable to say that we are due a hotter one next year. You could argue that it's unfair to compare to years during the LIA, but since 1900 you only expect a 2013-or-hotter Summer once every 7 years.

If we're talking really hot Summers, like an overall average of 17C+, then since 1900 you can expect one every 17 years. The last was 2006.

According to the Manchester summer index 2013 was outstanding, much better than 2016. The bonus of this index is that accounts for sun, rain also. Up above 2003, 2006 also. 

[lassie23]

Another hot, humid summer for the south, followed by a mild winter, so new year, old weather.

[cheese]

3 hours ago, Relativistic said:

Here.

It sounds to me that that was strongly implied here. Of course, there could have been a terrible misunderstanding, but I fail to see what else you could mean by this?

There is plenty of analysis you could do here, but at 45th warmest on record since 1659, you would expect a Summer as hot or hotter than 2013 once every 8 years. Given that 2003 and 2006 were not long before that, and that 2016 was even hotter at 39th warmest, it still stands that it's pretty unreasonable to say that we are due a hotter one next year. You could argue that it's unfair to compare to years during the LIA, but since 1900 you only expect a 2013-or-hotter Summer once every 7 years.

If we're talking really hot Summers, like an overall average of 17C+, then since 1900 you can expect one every 17 years. The last was 2006.

The implication was that both June and July 2006 were notably above average. In 2013, only July was notably above average. In 2016, no summer months were notably above average.

Your analysis is interesting - so thanks. I was mostly basing my comment on the past 25 or so years. The 1989-2006 period seemed to have more warm and hot summers than the 2007-now period.

Edited December 22, 2016 by cheese