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Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

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5 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

That seems to support the gfs version of events. Yet another waiting game though. Why do we put ourselves through this lol.

Well if I had to go to the 12th pub to get a pint on a Friday.... I probably would! 

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2 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

ECMWF Monthly goes off-piste versus it's deterministic brother into & particularly beyond Christmas. The +ve GPH/MSLP anomalies out to our NE merely intensify again towards end of month, then show signs of retrogressing 1st week Jan to lie directly to our North, with mean E flow trending more E-NE with time. Glosea likes the idea of a more blocky Jan too... but the term 'deja vu' springs to mind! Other shenanigans aside, at least Glosea strat diagnostics have been sound last few weeks, so given emergent January signals the PV may yet yield a 'surprise from aloft'. We shall see.

Interesting update...

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Looking flat with a strong PV now, will take something to rescue this one, not too bothered as long as the GEFS are of a strong showing.

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32 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

ECMWF Monthly goes off-piste versus it's deterministic brother into & particularly beyond Christmas. The +ve GPH/MSLP anomalies out to our NE merely intensify again towards end of month, then show signs of retrogressing 1st week Jan to lie directly to our North, with mean E flow trending more E-NE with time. Glosea likes the idea of a more blocky Jan too... but the term 'deja vu' springs to mind! Other shenanigans aside, at least Glosea strat diagnostics have been sound last few weeks, so given emergent January signals the PV may yet yield a 'surprise from aloft'. We shall see.

Lets just hope it's not yet another wild goose chase. 

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Some signs of a change on its way. Maybe 48 hours late, but now shaping up along the lines suggested by GP. Still too early to say the front loaded winter was wrong. 

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Week 2 is in line with the 00z eps.  The 12z is a little less stark in the trough ridge scenario but towards the end of the run it does show signs of retrogressing the high anomolies west towards Greenland from the sceuro ridge. The Atlantic trough less enthused about getting the low anomoly into Iberia but that could easily be run to run inconsistencies. 

my view of the 46 not updated as yet but week 3 already seen as per your post and it does show the evolution I've been thinking about. Perhaps moreso re the geeenland /Canada area losing low anomoly .   Even more interesting ......

Edited by bluearmy

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Amazing really after the signals for northern blocking that we have actually had the exact opposite. GFS is showing a classic Bartlett set up out to 300 hours, with high pressure being reinforced constantly by new high pressure cells. After 300 hours it goes more zonal for us but pressure remains high across a huge swathe of southern and eastern Europe with the reds and oranges surging back into the med.

Not saying it will end up like that as we have all seen rapid changes in output plenty of times before, but once uncle Barty comes to stay he's not easy to get rid of.  

 

 

 

 

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GFS Para is hugely interesting! Apologies for the one liner but off for an early one. -12 uppers into the SE by the end. 

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1 minute ago, IM NOT REALLY HERE said:

Lots of mixed messages on here again for us novices. 

 Yes, I feel for you all. Even worse than Dec 2012 ATM.  At least you're not really here so. You're alright. Sorry lol

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Just now, IM NOT REALLY HERE said:

Lots of mixed messages on here again for us novices. 

The GFS Para run is better than the current opp from day 11ish but its so far out as to be virtually irrelevant (nothing wrong whatsoever in posting it though :-) ). All the decent charts have remained out beyond day 10 and are not getting nearer.

To be absolutely clear, I'm not saying things can't change. Its just that this particular run was about as grim as it gets. The good news is that it will be replaced in a few hours!!

 

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6 minutes ago, IM NOT REALLY HERE said:

Lots of mixed messages on here again for us novices. 

Thats because the models are mixed.

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Fantastic GEFS mean at 192hrs, reflecting John Holmes' anomaly charts, gravity of high pressure around southern Norway. As far as we should be willing to look right now.

Screen Shot 2016-12-12 at 23.18.10.png

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Just now, abbie123 said:

very cold air over southern England ..:D

IMG_1335.PNG

Could do with the high about 500 miles or so further North and then by god would we be in business, -12c to -14 over a December North sea with low 520's heights - whooomphh  -  light the blue touch paper - especially with that wind - Drifts many feet deep in areas.

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Feel increasingly confident that we are in for a cold last week of December with an increasing cold Easterly. (Cold, calm and frosty Christmas perfect for walks in the country)  

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RIP Ian McCaskill... sad to see he's passed away.

Models hinting at the illusive easterly at the end of the month...

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