Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go


Paul

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Maidstone ❄kent❄
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Snow & Snow.
  • Location: Maidstone ❄kent❄
15 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

gfs-5-138.png?12gfs-0-138.png?12?12

Undercut possible? 

How many times have I read that on here over the last few years but it never happens unfortunately but like you say it does look possible and it's well over due to happen. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill

850s profile across Europe massively different on this run by t210...

gfs-1-216.png?6  gfs-1-210.png?12

If that verifies I hope no one was going to Greece or Turkey for a (pre) Xmas break. :rofl::cold:

Edited by Ravelin
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

12Z not as amplified as the 06z so the chance of a few short Northerly type incursions prior to day 10 looks unlikely for now.

Yep, not the best run so far but it will be interesting to see in the ENS are still hinted at some for of blocking, we need to start seeing some more cold runs.

Edited by Ali1977
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
28 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

Third consecutive run where the GFS(P) wants to blow us away...

gfsnh-0-384-19.png

Might have to re-name it 'Dirty Harry'....

Would I be right in thinking this chart would deliver strong winds and wintry showers with heavy rain,sleet and snow on bands and developments?.

Not that it will come to fruition.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
9 minutes ago, Ravelin said:

850s profile across Europe massively different on this run by t210...

gfs-1-216.png?6  gfs-1-210.png?12

If that verifies I hope no one was going to Greece or Turkey for a (pre) Xmas break. :rofl::cold:

 

Ice days for southern Italy if that comes off

Rtavn19217.gif

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
3 minutes ago, joggs said:

Would I be right in thinking this chart would deliver strong winds and wintry showers with heavy rain,sleet and snow on bands and developments?.

Not that it will come to fruition.

Pretty much. It would probably get colder and more wintry as it progressed as well

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The trough disruption at the end of next week achieves two things. A couple of cut off upper lows Iberia and NW Africa way who do a Little flag waving with the arm of the eastern trough that brought a little nip to the eastern Mediterranean and paves the way for the next complex cold upper trough to spew forth from Canada and initiate the next amplification round. The ecm it is not

gfs_z500a_natl_33.pnggfs_uv250_natl_40.png


EDIT

Part 2 of the GFS should only be viewed after the watershed and even then only after strong drink taken/

Edited by knocker
  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex

I personally wouldn't get overly hung by the opps tonight given the differences. To further illustrate the point the GEFS that are rolling out are all over the place by day 5. By day 7 a couple are on the verge of going very cold.  Seems that our old friend Shannon Entropy is back in town :cc_confused:

Edit: By 192 Scandi high is the biggest cluster. Big changes in this suite.

 

Edited by Jason M
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales

The longer range looks not as good on GFS as a few previous runs with the Atlantic ridge and low heights in Europe not showing in FI.

But it looks better in the mid term. Still a chance of an easterly for me at around day 8.

Quite a few GEFS members agree...

 

IMG_3246.PNG

IMG_3247.PNG

IMG_3248.PNG

IMG_3249.PNG

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
22 minutes ago, Jason M said:

I personally wouldn't get overly hung by the opps tonight given the differences. To further illustrate the point the GEFS that are rolling out are all over the place by day 5. By day 7 a couple are on the verge of going very cold.  Seems that our old friend Shannon Entropy is back in town :cc_confused:

Edit: By 192 Scandi high is the biggest cluster. Big changes in this suite.

 

 
 
 
 
 
 

Jason, I'm bumping this from earlier as you and I are clearly as one with our thoughts on this as are a number of other netweather members.

Over to the ECM to make some sense of the impending pattern change (as I'm calling it) post the 13th December, yep D5 no sooner, no later. No concerns my end just yet in my hunt for pre-Christmas cold, I think it might sneak up on us all rather quickly as did the recent extreme Temperature changes. One day 0c in parts of Scotland, next day night on 17c.

Edited by gottolovethisweather
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

To sum up the GFS briefly, interesting start goes downhill and ends up very poor looking for cold prospects.

I nearly fell off my chair when I saw its T120hrs as that develops another Scandi ridge but then no undercut and that bowling ball low runs east and flattens it.

Interestingly  here if you make a hybrid of the UKMO/GFS with the latter downstream but the former upstream you'd have a better chance of the undercut because the UKMO is more amplified upstream.

Hard to know whats going to happen with the ECM given its earlier marked change from yesterday evening.

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone

The phantom scandi high that has been showing since november, time to move on from this scenario its had its day best to look for low heights to form in Europe and let them stubborn heights to are south east to drain into the atlantic and help to amplify the Alantic ridge.

Wasting away winter with the scandi scenario am afraid right now. Best to look west.

Edited by booferking
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

Control looking good to me. Just cherry picking though but how much would this forum give for this set up (non coldies aside)

IMG_3738.PNG

And the best ENS award too.

IMG_3739.PNG

Edited by Ali1977
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

Looks like something is afoot as early on as t72 on the GFS12z. Quite a subtle evolution from the 00z and 6z. But the little ridge over the uk at 78 looks to give us a small chance at a Scandi ridge developing as we move through to 120, and with the Euro high abating somewhat in strength the undercut is not out of the question, a little shortwave ejecting south east from the main Atlantic trough would be lovely. Doesn't quite get there on the op but certainly not without potential!!

78

GFSOPEU12_78_1.png

114

GFSOPEU12_114_1.png

120

GFSOPEU12_120_1.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

High pressure and mild air are never far away from GEM this afternoon the south would see the longest periods of dry weather whilst further north and west you would be more prone to some wetter and winder conditions at times

gemnh-0-102.png?12gemnh-0-144.png?12gemnh-0-192.png?12gemnh-0-240.png?12

gemnh-1-102.png?12gemnh-1-144.png?12gemnh-1-192.png?12gemnh-1-240.png?12

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

hgt300.png hgt300.png

Very amusing - and further reason not to pay much attention to how flat things become a few days alter. The smell of bull-doings that comes with those charts is downright nauseating.

Meanwhile UKMO wins Olympic Gold for the speed of that secondary low crossing the N. Atlantic days 5-6. Highly undesirable as in the case of GFS a slower progression of that feature is what keeps the broad trough more or less stationary while the two lows dance around each other.

ALL_emean_phase_full.gif

UKMO is crazy fast with the MJO projection too, so I'm inclined to view it with some skepticism.

Funnily enough, the EC ens. stay furthest away from phase 4 activity - less flattening favoured - but don't really go for 3 either - less mid-lat block favoured - which makes the tropical component inconclusive. No wonder they were so spread out this morning!

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
11 minutes ago, booferking said:

The phantom scandi high that has been showing since november, time to move on from this scenario its had its day best to look for low heights to form in Europe and let them stubborn heights to are south east to drain into the atlantic and help to amplify the Alantic ridge.

Wasting away winter with the scandi scenario am afraid right now. Best to look west.

I'm not disagreeing with you, we've been here before with the outputs and I just want rid of that wretched Euro high as its shown no inclination to retrogress. Much depends on what the ECM does because its NH pattern on the 00hrs was so different from this evenings GFS run. The ECM cuts some positive heights much further in towards Greenland which helps to force the jet further south.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
11 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Control looking good to me. Just cherry picking though but how much would this forum give for this set up (non coldies aside)

IMG_3738.PNG

And the best ENS award too.

IMG_3739.PNG

I'm not that picky, but I wouldn't kick those out of bed. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Slightly envious of my Greek colleague going home for Xmas by the time this happens for SE Europe

IMG_0015.PNG

with regards to the Scandi high, there's only one way that's going with most of the jet energy going over the top, though the upside is that we may see a chillier continental flow tail end of next week as the high to the NE sinks south.

with the low heights expanding in the polar regions to our N and NW, it will always be a struggle to sustain a ridge over Nern Europe when there's a split flow, unless there is more energy undercutting the ridge over SW Europe and less in the northern arm.

 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
Just now, nick sussex said:

I'm not disagreeing with you, we've been here before with the outputs and I just want rid of that wretched Euro high as its shown no inclination to retrogress. Much depends on what the ECM does because its NH pattern on the 00hrs was so different from this evenings GFS run. The ECM cuts some positive heights much further in towards Greenland which helps to force the jet further south.

Sorry if you thought that was meant for you i just meant it in general going forward this is the best way forward, I just got in from a golf outing looked at the GFS never read any posts from above.:):santa-emoji:

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...