Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Snow?
Paul

Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

Recommended Posts

6 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

GFS 06Z still on a completely different page to the ECM ... or is it? Heights pulling back to the Atlantic, low heights back over Europe, breakthrough of low pressure into the North Sea and beyond ... ok that's as far as it goes!!

ECM1-240.GIF?08-12  gfs-0-240.png?6

The parallel continues to promote a massive storm to our north in deep FI (between Dec 20 and 24) - will be interesting to see if that verifies

What's even more remarkable is the difference between the GEFS and ECM means at T240. I usually see this as a sign of high uncertainty.

EDM1-240.GIF?08-12  gens-21-1-228.png

However, over the years I've rarely seen the GEFS mean be wrong when it produces a 1030mb high, so I'm going to side with the ideas that the Euro High at D8 will move towards a UK High by D10.

And just for fun (some of us need it after the past eight tortuous weeks) - P14 has the eye candy this morning!

gens-14-1-228.png

 

Thanks for that MWB: a much better explanation than my own 'interesting'!:good:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A Torpedo from the east on pertubation 16, heh.

gens-16-1-360.png

And still huge scatter on 13th. Same as 24 hours ago.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

Ecm op AO/NAO dive negative day 10 and interestingly the GFS also though much less pronounced

 

 

Doesn't that contradict the evolution of the ECM 00z ensembles Matt was discussing?  Wouldn't a Euro high and mid-Atlantic trough constitue a ++NAO?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Doesn't that contradict the evolution of the ECM 00z ensembles Matt was discussing?  Wouldn't a Euro high and mid-Atlantic trough constitue a ++NAO?

Yes but I'm speaking op and he's speaking ens

my point was you wouldn't usually speak op at day 10 against ens trend 

incidentally, the eps AO is fairly neutral Days 10/15 whilst the gefs not surprisingly take it negative -1/-2. The eps NAO also positive 1 to 2 in that period.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Doesn't that contradict the evolution of the ECM 00z ensembles Matt was discussing?  Wouldn't a Euro high and mid-Atlantic trough constitue a ++NAO?

I believe blue army is going by the Deterministic and others must be looking at the EPS. It is indeed true that the Deterministic puts the AO heavily negative and the AMO negative, although not as deeply as the AO. The EPS are really not agreeing though.

The GFS is more inline with its own GEFS in sending negative. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looks pretty good in 06Z GFS for coldies, if just the center of the high pressure would be like 600km more up to the north around iceland then it would bring down even colder 850hpa temperatures

High pressure.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You can only sit back and respects those that invest so much time and effort into the global drivers to be able to come up with such a detailed informative post such as Tamara's. That's not taking anything away from those that perhaps put more faith and equally as much effort into nwp operational models. 

At  the end of the day, the weather can and will make fools of us all, pros included. (not saying it has btw*)

 

 

Edited by karlos1983

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

@Tamara I could kiss you for that post ^^^^^ :D Not only written in your usual elegant style with all kinds of erudite meteorological tidbits but a razor sharp critique of the forum 'madness' so typical of this time of year. :santa-emoji:

Forum madness driven by teleconnections and forecasts leading folk up the garden path as their 'cold blocked signal' got quickly stamped on?  Indeed composites of early signs did look good.....but only as good as how much of a driver a certain tele is.  

 

BFTP

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

You can only sit back and respects those that invest so much time and effort into the global drivers to be able to come up with such a detailed informative post such as Tamara's. That's not taking anything away from those that perhaps put more faith and equally as much effort into nwp operational models. 

At  the end of the day, the weather can and will make fools of us all, pros included.

 

 

Indeed altho i cant say that i have a great understanding of tamaras,gp and sm etes posts.Ive looked and watched forecasts for 40 yrs and take what i can from watching models and looking at charts from way back and sometimes matching.I guess any forecast esp the way oct-nov have panned out with the blocking nao ete was always a tough call.Always on to a hiding to nothing it would seem esp with the longer range forecasts.Todays output still looks a minefield tbh and a brave call beyond 7-10 days is not what i would be doing altho if pushed would go dry-cool/cold  mlb set up into xmas

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Seasonality said:

The only way you can get led up the garden path is if you see a forecast as a certainty.

Indeed and well presented....but one can understand a following when presentations of forecasts are done in such depth and of what 'should' result.  Long may the attempts continue.....and the madness

 

BFTP

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Indeed and well presented....but one can understand a following when presentations of forecasts are done in such depth and of what 'should' result.  Long may the attempts continue.....and the madness

 

BFTP

Will leave this as my last reply to avoid the thread straying too off topic. I raise a glass to the attempts continuing and to the continued fun on the forum, but I do think Tamara was right to criticise the attacks which became quite vicious, petty and ill informed. On to the 12z output and what madness may ensue!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, swfc said:

Indeed altho i cant say that i have a great understanding of tamaras,gp and sm etes posts.Ive looked and watched forecasts for 40 yrs and take what i can from watching models and looking at charts from way back and sometimes matching.I guess any forecast esp the way oct-nov have panned out with the blocking nao ete was always a tough call.Always on to a hiding to nothing it would seem esp with the longer range forecasts.Todays output still looks a minefield tbh and a brave call beyond 7-10 days is not what i would be doing altho if pushed would go dry-cool/cold  mlb set up into xmas

Agreed. But if you have the capacity to be able to see the wood through the Trees then why not share that, even with caveat or two? Which I think I remember Tamara providing a few weeks back when things were looking rosy as far as December Northern Blocking was concerned. 

I think, no matter what type of long range prediction is made and by whom, if you can make the call and it doesn't quite work out, as long as you can identify what went wrong and why, then that's fantastic. That is a good platform to learn from. I once drilled a hole in my kitchen to hang a cupboard up, I can assure you, next time I will use pipe detector to save me getting wet.

Edited by karlos1983

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Great post from Ian F again, a little blip but the workings in the atmosphere sound as messed up (and exiting) as they did a few weeks ago. All ALL to play for and it also sounds like the whole of winter could see something interesting.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
43 minutes ago, Tamara said:

Recent days.....

 

Great post Tamara.

I wonder if I might trouble you to give us a clue as to what you expect the GWO and GLAAM positions to be in Christmas week?

Recent GFS Ops appear keen to raise an amplified ridge to the West towards Greenland which might give a chosen lucky few the chance of seeing the white stuff around the big day.

Do you expect angular momentum to be on the increase by then?

Thanks

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

Given that today's EC Seasonal update remains steadfast on broadscale lack of zonality J-F-M, retaining it's eagerness for marked northern +ve GPH/MSLP and drier than avg anomalies, I'm not expecting any sudden change of tact from UKMO Seasonal Team based on current op modelling mash-up. What is now very striking is the growing evidence of apparent disconnect between impending and strongly-signalled upshift in stratospheric zonal winds, versus zero evidence in EC Seasonal for it to manifest in a marked change of mean tropospheric anomalies (towards zonality). I'm trying to discover via UKMO Seasonal boffins exactly *what* forcing mechanism could be overridingly at play here, because (despite the snipers/doubters on here) it is quite irrefutable that *something* is driving these two key high-end coupled models (EC & GLOSEA) to reach similar prognoses. Fascinating enigma; fascinating times...

Interesting stuff. So is this to say that if there is a disconnect between the strat and the trop, that if a SSW does occur, that this will have a negligible effect (due to the aforementioned disconnect)?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

Interesting stuff. So is this to say that if there is a disconnect between the strat and the trop, that if a SSW does occur, that this will have a negligible effect (due to the aforementioned disconnect)?

I guess it can't hurt though? I'm not sure how long the disconnect would last? However, can the the right setup have an effect on the Strat from the Trop up if there is a disconnect?

SO MANY QUESTIONS!!!!!! 

PS I love the "Met Office Boffins" comment by Ian, made me chuckle.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks for your extremely well written post, Tamara, to the point where I believe I could understand quite a bit of your reasoning!  

"but making such predictions is made ever tougher year on year against the alarming global warming trends" .....  and I am beginning to believe that global warming has already changed our weather for ever.   What I cannot get my head round is why the UK seems always to be in a 'protected' zone of warmer air than almost any other landmass at the same latitude.  Look at this short animation and see how the UK is currently modelled to avoid all the cooler upper air which seemingly is kept away by some invisible 'force field'.  Is this the Gulf Stream?

image.png

As long as we remain protected from the coldest upper air we are not likely to enjoy many Arctic interludes.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
27 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

Given that today's EC Seasonal update remains steadfast on broadscale lack of zonality J-F-M, retaining it's eagerness for marked northern +ve GPH/MSLP and drier than avg anomalies, I'm not expecting any sudden change of tact from UKMO Seasonal Team based on current op modelling mash-up. What is now very striking is the growing evidence of apparent disconnect between impending and strongly-signalled upshift in stratospheric zonal winds, versus zero evidence in EC Seasonal for it to manifest in a marked change of mean tropospheric anomalies (towards zonality). I'm trying to discover via UKMO Seasonal boffins exactly *what* forcing mechanism could be overridingly at play here, because (despite the snipers/doubters on here) it is quite irrefutable that *something* is driving these two key high-end coupled models (EC & GLOSEA) to reach similar prognoses. Fascinating enigma; fascinating times...

There is one possible explanation for this - both the EC and glosea seasonal models are wrong. Time will tell of course but quite telling that the EC 46 dayer has shifted away from the overwhelming northern blocking signal during the last 2 updates.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...