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Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

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5 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

Somebody posted a NOAA discussion about this way back in the autumn; was it you? They were saying the models predicted mild but their take was that it might not be correct due to some other parameter. Trouble is, I cannot remember what it was causing them to doubt the seasonal output. Maybe you can .. might give some pointer as to what the problem has been.

Well what they said was that the NWP was in conflict with the normal temp composites they would expect with a negative AO. So the composites said cold but the NWP suggested not cold.

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PV a fair bit weaker to our NNW onnthis run compared to last as well as more of an aleution ridge which may meet any decent shot of WAA. Latest run bottom.

Could this help with a quicker evolution of some heights I wonder.

IMG_3734.PNG

IMG_3735.PNG

Not so good at day 9, big high heading over the UK , it's where it goes from there!!

Edited by Ali1977
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Another interesting day 12 and beyond coming - PV leaving America and heading to Siberia. Ian's comment above isn't saying something cold could happen, so for me I'm still thinking we could get the proper cold in for Xmas.

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Pv migrating again later on  its like a game of tennis this year with the vortex.:D

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Not without interest hemispherically in the latter stages once again

gfsnh-0-324.png?18

One of these times we'll filter that cold to the E/NE our way!

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2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Not without interest hemispherically in the latter stages once again

gfsnh-0-324.png?18

One of these times we'll filter that cold to the E/NE our way!

We sure as hell will on a run, but can we do it in reality and can we do it this winter? and can we get a brutal dumping as a result?

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Well Fergie's post there is among the finest examples of 'it's all to play for!' that I've seen this year.

History tells us that sudden increase in zonal flow can be well overblown so there's plenty of reason to remain hopeful for a colder, drier outcome next week than recent det. runs have shown (even the ECM 12z lets a weakening front across from the west midweek).

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21 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

.What does seem highly likely is a protracted period now unfolding of model volatility and marked swings between differing extremes, given the very fine balance now abundantly clear in extended range output. 

So all bets are off basically, anything can happen which must be potentially good news for coldies looking for snow:cold-emoji:

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I've been watching this avidly over the last couple of weeks and you can tell something is a foot by the number of blocking highs we've seen thus far reflected in the below ave Nov CET. A front loaded winter doesn't have to be snow and ice. Dry, cold sunny weather will produce the same net effect and this looks on the cards for the next 3/4 weeks at least (after this mild blip)

I thought I had come across most weather terms and then Fergie throws "Hovmoeller plots" into the mix. What the hell are they ? 

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6 minutes ago, Cleeve Hill said:

I've been watching this avidly over the last couple of weeks and you can tell something is a foot by the number of blocking highs we've seen thus far reflected in the below ave Nov CET. A front loaded winter doesn't have to be snow and ice. Dry, cold sunny weather will produce the same net effect and this looks on the cards for the next 3/4 weeks at least (after this mild blip)

I thought I had come across most weather terms and then Fergie throws "Hovmoeller plots" into the mix. What the hell are they ? 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hovmöller_diagram

I know some of the words. 

 

Edited by SN0WM4N
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1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

I don't know about Hovmoeller plots, but I think a lot of people have been driven to losing said plot over the past couple of weeks!

I looked it up......."A Hovmöller diagram is a commonly used way of plotting meteorological data to highlight the role of waves. The axes of a Hovmöller diagram are typically longitude or latitude (abscissa or x-axis) and time (ordinate or y-axis) with the value of some field represented through color or shading."

Now I will have to read that again and think about it for a few days before I can tell you what it means! :)

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This chart below is nothing new it's been showing for several days now. The only difference to see is this size of the high pressure rising to 1050mb. Which if it pulls of would be slow and stubborn to shift... these are the types of high pressures I like to see and the formation of the Greenland high.

Happy model watching it has been a trend on the last few runs and the High pressure seems to be growing in MB. 

16122106_0718.gif

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2 hours ago, snowbunting said:

6 depressions/lows deflected to the north of the Uk on the gfs 12z when in recent years they would have nailed the western isles. 

I cannot agree with you on this one Blasty.. winter is far from over. 

 

 

I was joking......this month hasn't even begun for fun and games........ But there is NO HLB anticipated or likely.....not of consequence to us.....and any hanging on to that is imo a no no but a developing Atlantic ridge to watch out for as we get deep troughing over or to our E/ NE.  The Scandi HP possibility was a red herring.  Have a look at my LRF.....

 

BFTP

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3 minutes ago, Barry Reynolds said:

I looked it up......."A Hovmöller diagram is a commonly used way of plotting meteorological data to highlight the role of waves. The axes of a Hovmöller diagram are typically longitude or latitude (abscissa or x-axis) and time (ordinate or y-axis) with the value of some field represented through color or shading."

Now I will have to read that again and think about it for a few days before I can tell you what it means! :)

Examples help 

AAO_SH_10Jun-8Oct2012.gif

 It follows the bottom chart in relation to AO so the orange colours indicate polar heights with the latitude on the left and the time on the bottom. The AO chart takes it's reading at 700mb and on the left look for 700mb in july and you will see the negative AO due to positive heights in the pole. 

Edited by SN0WM4N
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2 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

 but a developing Atlantic ridge to watch out for as we get deep troughing over or to our E/ NE.  The Scandi HP possibility was a red herring.  Have a look at my LRF.....

 

BFTP

That sounds good Fred, northerly shots would be most welcome!

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1 minute ago, SN0WM4N said:

Examples help 

AAO_SH_10Jun-8Oct2012.gif

 It follows the bottom chart in relation to AO so the orange colours indicate polar heights with the latitude on the left and the time on the bottom. 

Thanks Snowm4n. Good example, far easier to understand.

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3 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

I was joking......this month hasn't even begun for fun and games........ But there is NO HLB anticipated or likely.....not of consequence to us.....and any hanging on to that is imo a no no but a developing Atlantic ridge to watch out for as we get deep troughing over or to our E/ NE.  The Scandi HP possibility was a red herring.  Have a look at my LRF.....

 

BFTP

Dont forget those Hovmoeller plots :cc_confused:

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Very little support by 168 among GFS ensembles for the Op, the vast majority having us well under the influence of high pressure by then.

Could be the swing we have been waiting for - or just another blip. :wallbash:

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2 hours ago, North of North Yorkshire said:

Hi Steve,

 

 

Hi 

The Hovmoller plots will certainly indicate whether the significant increase in the 60N Zonal wind is propergating downwards into the troposphere or whether we can hold a disconnect to that for long enough to get some blocking- ( it will basically be a diagram of wave propergation or indeed dissipation ! )

Whilst we can have a disconnect for some time the reality is it wont last forever & the increased (u) zonal wind will downwell in the end-

Looking at the history ( quickly ) 2009 again crops up as one of the few ( poss only ) time where we get a winter SSW in a WQBO

if we compare the x2 zonal wind timelines you will see The november comparison is almost spot on - with december having a significant increase before boom in Jan

IMG_9914.PNGIMG_9915.PNGs

 

Edited by Steve Murr
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24 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

NH looking weak again, nothing to be gloomy about today.

IMG_3736.PNG

Winter of 1946/47 started around Xmas, just saying!! Towards Xmas the cold has left the USA and looks much more favourable for us to tap into if we get lucky!! 

The winter of 46/47 actually really only got going after some of the mildest ever temperatures seen in the first half of January.

So we could be looking at the same output for another 6 weeks and imagining we are still in with a chance of a memorable winter! (personally think the last week of December will see a big change)

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