Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

[karlos1983]

I'll take P4 thanks. Put a first class stamp on it! 

[Summer Sun]

With the exception of the 18th to 20th the Op is on the cold side of the mean, that's not to say it won't be turning colder as we approach Christmas it has a good chance based on the past few day's means

[knocker]

All this talk of trends in F1 has caused me to come over quite faint and I had to recourse to spotting the plume. very impressive. Now could this be a trend signalling shirtsleeve order for Xmas I ask myself. Oh, oh, oh.

[Geordiesnow]

4 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I agree the reliable is poor but FI is up for grabs and its a good place to start looking for longer term trends..sometimes they are on to something and as a cold / snow lover I'm really looking hard for signs and there are some showing.

Just got to be careful though not to get sucked into those charts and start to believe them too much especially when it involves the GFS and its lower resolution output. Like you, I been in here for many years now and we have seen it before with GFS charts and its fantastic cold charts which look so simple in coming off when in reality, the threat of shortwaves and the likes always don't tend to get modelled until much nearer the reliable timeframe.

Going back to the reliable timeframe, hopefully the ECM has slightly better amplification in the short term than in its 00Z run and we go from there, not expecting any cold charts but if we can see something a bit more encouraging respect the Atlantic is getting blocked off then its a start at least.

[Frosty.]

Nobody has said anything is nailed on from ten days plus apart from tongue in cheek but it's reasonable to comment on cold ensembles / op runs whatever the timeframe as most of us are looking for snow seeing as its supposed to be winter.

[Methuselah]

8 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Yes it's not all doom and gloom, I still see a change to settled weather with frost and fog mid month and we will take it from there, just because the experts can't see anything significantly wintry later in December doesn't mean it can't happen..The weather doesn't obey any rules!

And neither does it obey the models!

[Summer Sun]

GEM is looking pretty mild again this afternoon

[karlos1983]

2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Nobody has said anything is nailed on from ten days plus apart from tongue in cheek but it's reasonable to comment on cold ensembles / op runs whatever the timeframe as most of us are looking for snow seeing as its supposed to be winter.

Yes it's certainly nice to see some cold members. Even if it is in deep fl. 

Edited December 7, 2016 by karlos1983

[Frosty.]

Just now, karlos1983 said:

Yes it's certainly nice to see some cold members. Even if it is in deep fl. 

I would be more concerned if there was no cold showing at all but there clearly is. :- )

[frosty ground]

7 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

Just got to be careful though not to get sucked into those charts and start to believe them too much especially when it involves the GFS and its lower resolution output. Like you, I been in here for many years now and we have seen it before with GFS charts and its fantastic cold charts which look so simple in coming off when in reality, the threat of shortwaves and the likes always don't tend to get modelled until much nearer the reliable timeframe.

Going back to the reliable timeframe, hopefully the ECM has slightly better amplification in the short term than in its 00Z run and we go from there, not expecting any cold charts but if we can see something a bit more encouraging respect the Atlantic is getting blocked off then its a start at least.

Problem is not one person has gotten sucked into those charts. 

 

[frosty ground]

18 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

With the exception of the 18th to 20th the Op is on the cold side of the mean, that's not to say it won't be turning colder as we approach Christmas it has a good chance based on the past few day's means

But not unsupported..

 

 

[Scandinavian High.]

Looks like something colder run up to Christmas there's a signal so we can talk about it .

[bluearmy]

looking through the runs, those that deliver a cold fi are quite amplified at day 8/9 towards Iceland/se Greenland.  tough to find an operational that has been in that area. perhaps the ec 00z op the most amplified and we all know about ec det and amplification late on

[Stuie]

Interesting jet stream in FI? 

[The PIT]

14 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I would be more concerned if there was no cold showing at all but there clearly is. :- )

My concern is that any prospect at cold is lala land. Much better if they were at T144 at least that would offer a chance after the normal downgrades when they get closer to reliable time frame of T96

[The PIT]

2 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

Interesting jet stream in FI? 

Looks like an inverted Greek symbol MU

[Stuie]

2 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Looks like an inverted Greek symbol MU

Showing us maybe where the location of HP is going to sit?

[Weathizard]

The whole point of FI is to pick up trends and take it as a basic overview, I don't often look at FI in OP runs more the ensemble clusters and individual peturbs.

i don't see an issue with that, I think all of us have been stung enough times by taking FI too seriously.

Its undeniable there has been a significant trend towards colder conditions amongst the ensembles in the last 12 or so, think it was yesterday morning I was looking through the ensembles and they were pretty rancid to be honest, at least we have some eye candy now.

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 12z mean indicates stronger support for an anticyclonic spell beyond the current mild / changeable phase with increasing surface cold bringing frosty foggy nights and fine crisp days which would be particularly cold where fog lingers, it then gradually trends more unsettled during christmas week but stays cold. 

Edited December 7, 2016 by Frosty.

[Mucka]

JMA showing some interest in amplifying the pattern.

[Summer Sun]

Parts of the USA east could be about to enter the freezer, not for the first time in recent years...

[igloo]

4 minutes ago, Mucka said:

JMA showing some interest in amplifying the pattern.

i no most people me included think the JMA is cannon foder but it shows the  possibility of a huge undercut  there is so much variables possible in 7 days time im convinced  no model has yet nailed it yet

[Sweatyman]

4 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Parts of the USA east could be about to enter the freezer, not for the first time in recent years...

Well there's a surprise 

[mountain shadow]

4 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Parts of the USA east could be about to enter the freezer, not for the first time in recent years...

Parts of the USA East enter the freezer every year though. At the Eastern continental end of a West to East jetstream cooled by the interior, it's hardly surprising.

[Weathizard]

Some promise on the ECM at 192/216 materialises itself into nothing much of interest, as you can probably tell by the lack of comments!

Pretty perculiar chart.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2016120712/ECH1-240.GIF?07-0