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Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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johnholmes Maestro

johnholmes

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
Posted
1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

Modelling high up is far more reliable - it can go wrong as per the gefs late November but generally it's much better than in the trop (I think Andrej showed the op forecast to be twice as reliable at day 10)

extrapolate that for the ens ......

 

always has been, prior to and after the introduction of weather models; the higher one looks at models then the less moisture there is which is often the cause of model accuracy issues.

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted (edited)
19 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

The CFS comes to the rescue, just like The Lone Ranger...Hi Ho, Silver!:cold:

If we could just get the bird type PV  to do a head stand, We're IN!!

Turkey set to go in the freezer next week! 

Apologies for my overreaction to a couple posts last night, I really don't know what got into me. :oops:

 

bird PV thing.jpg

Edited by karlos1983
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Sweatyman Seasoned

Sweatyman

Posted
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
  • Weather Preferences: Hot n cold
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
Posted
21 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

While the 12z rolls out, Happy Christmas from the CFS!! :santa-emoji::reindeer-emoji::cold:

 

 

cfs-2-432.png

cfs-0-432.png

Yeah this time next week that chart will be yellows not blue! 

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johnholmes Maestro

johnholmes

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Popular Post
Posted

I have to say the last two pages contain some of the best posts, with differing views, that I have read in a long time on Net Weather. Thank you to those who contributed, you know who you are.

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

Possible fog-fest for a large part of England, Sunday, should the GFS verify?

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, radiohead said:

Latest GFS parallel run is out

 

gfs-0-336_whc2.png

 

 

Next couple of frames would have been fun to see, just a small low pressure separating 2 big Highs. 

gfsnh-0-384.png

Edited by karlos1983
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Kentspur Accomplished

Kentspur

Posted
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to October
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
Posted
2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Next couple of frames would have been fun to see, just a small low pressure separating 2 big Highs. 

gfsnh-0-384.png

Where on earth did this come from? I was expecting a blowtorch with some of the comments today 

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted
6 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Where on earth did this come from? I was expecting a blowtorch with some of the comments today 

Just another run having its say. Certainly wouldn't put any faith in it planning out like that, but it's showing it, so it's a possibility of course 

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Seasonality Accomplished

Seasonality

Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
Posted (edited)

Looking a bit different on this run.

gfs-0-234.png

gfs-0-228.png

Edited by Seasonality
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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted

Just look how the PV forms on this run from GFS

Today

gfsnh-0-18.png?12

Tuesday (t144)

gfsnh-0-144.png?12

UKMO is a bit different but still starting to form

UN144-21.GIF?07-17

 

 

 

 

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Singularity Maestro

Singularity

Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
Posted

ALL_emean_phase_full.gif DecemberPhase3gt1500mb.gif DecemberPhase4gt1500mb.gif

Look at the latest MJO plots showing a bit of activity in phase 3 or in the case of GEFS and UKMET dangerously close to phase 4. I say dangerously because the composite for that leans things toward a flatter pattern rather than a mid-latitude block. Where it ends up depends on the ongoing tropical cyclone - we don't want it to drift over to Indonesia.

Could it be as simple as that with respect to next week? We could still get somewhere even with no MJO activity according to GEM:

gem-0-168.png?12

- but we don't see anything to encourage disruption of the next trough in line, such as the ECM 00z produced.

 

Longer term, other models are really starting to follow GEFS with the change to a more dominant Pacific signal, but GEFS remains the most enthusiastic. No wonder some recent GFS runs have been producing height rises W/NW of the UK in the latter stages.

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Nick L Maestro

Nick L

Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
Posted
1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

is that not the 6z?

Yes, the post is a comparison of the 6z and 12z at the same timeframe.

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted
1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

Just look how the PV forms on this run from GFS

Today

gfsnh-0-18.png?12

Tuesday (t144)

gfsnh-0-144.png?12

UKMO is a bit different but still starting to form

UN144-21.GIF?07-17

 

 

 

 

It's day 12-13 where the interest has been , lets see what happens around then. 

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted

Whilst the gfs in its latter stages looks less amplified to our west, it also separates the vortex segments to a degree where no movement of energy between the lobes is possible and will be interesting to see what happens as a result re the Atlantic jet 

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Weathizard Accomplished

Weathizard

Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
Posted

It looks possible between the day 10-14 period there will be another shot at amplification in the Atlantic, at this range it's just conjecture but it's a good trend to see in the far reaches of FI.

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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted

12Z GFS very similar to 06z GFS with an Atlantic ridge around 21st offering a North westerly / Northerly flow and perhaps some snow at least on higher ground.  as I said earlier this was supported by the control run on 06Z so if it is supported on the ensembles perhaps there is some confidence emerging for this?

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

12Z GFS very similar to 06z GFS with an Atlantic ridge around 21st offering a North westerly / Northerly flow and perhaps some snow at least on higher ground.  as I said earlier this was supported by the control run on 06Z so if it is supported on the ensembles perhaps there is some confidence emerging for this?

Definitely a trend, wouldn't it be great if it all fell in place for Xmas. That would make up for a failed front loaded Winter!!

awesone chart , by Xmas day we'd be cold with chance of snow for sure...shame it's so deep in FI

IMG_3731.PNG

Edited by Ali1977
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knocker Maestro

knocker

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
Posted (edited)

I'm not going to bother analyzing the GFS for the next ten days. Really much of the same with the Canadian Vortex spewing out complex upper troughs which track east and interact with the periodic surging of the Azores HP (which is quite impressive) which really amounts to unsettled with the HP hanging in here. Temps generally above average. This just about sums it up

gfs_z500a_natl_38.pnggfs_uv250_natl_38.png

Oh and Sidney was quite gobsmacked at the thought of the mild days :shok:

Sidney 2.jpg

Edited by knocker
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