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Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

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4 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Funny how the latest run from GFS fires up the zonal train at 240 hours and then drops it 36 hour later ( as shown on this picture ) All very uncertain.

 C

GFSOPEU06_276_1.png

If that high to are South East sinks away out of the road and joins the atlantic ridge that northerly in the later frames would have been so much better.  

Edited by booferking

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16 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

For amusement, the GFS para shifts a monster blob of vortex over Scandi.

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An xmas 2013 redux....

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...but a colder version.

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Fed up of commenting on the longer range outputs when the models can't even agree and keep flipping at Day 4/5. 

But anyway, forgetting what rubbish it's churned up before FI, the third GFS in a row showing heights to our west/north west towards the end...

Crumbs I know but not much else to talk about today. 

 

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3 minutes ago, booferking said:

If that high to are South East sinks away out of the road and joins the atlantic ridge that northerly in the later frames would have been so much better.  

Yes booferking, best retrogressive SW then link as you say with the Mid Atlantic Ridge, this would allow the important fall in heights over Europe and  the flood gates for an increasingly cold Arctic airmass. We need to start for looking towards important changes at 240 hours from today. I am more up beat about developments today looking at the NH upper flow pattern and can see us into _AO territory in the week prior to Christmas. That will cheer a few up on here!

 C

 C

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GFS and Parallel toying with Split PV at around day 11 onwards, lets hope this is still showing throughout the day, it does seem like the PV weakens generally around this time in the NH. 

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Edited by Ali1977

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6 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

So the bad news is this morning is that the dense mass of cold air in NW Canada looks set to move westwards and pour its cold remains into the NW Atlantic. This concerns me as I believe it will fire up the jet, hence why we are seeing dark blues and purples towards Greenland. It seems to be a repeat of the last few winters and I have a theory as to why this may be happening.

Over the past few years we have had references to the North Atlantic cold blob, that has persisted. Some people say its gone but I think its still there. There is something in oceanography called the re-emergence mechanism. Basically in the winter the mixing layer (area that interacts with the atmosphere) is at its deepest due to the stormy weather. In the Summer months the mixing layer shoals. However the cold SSTs from the previous winter remain at depth, only to re-emerge again when it becomes stormier. Here is an example. First is March 2015, then December 2015.

Interesting post! I must admit I know did all about all of this but I don't understand why cold air crossing cold water creates such cyclogenesis. Maybe this is for another thread but would like to find out.

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good morning gang ,still we have most good synoptics way out in the longer range .Do we keep high pressure close by or is the Atlantic going to come crashing through ,my only hope at the moment is for the high to migrate a little further north and the atlantic to come whistling in on a southerly tracking Jet later next week .realy wish i could see something wintry but all seems clouded in ifs and buts , lets hope tonights charts can get an angle on what we all are looking for ,And remember its only december the 7th ,:cold::hi:

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Some interesting 'potential' post T+336...Something of a recurring suggestion, perhaps; but, so far nothing more than a suggestion?

Anywho, the projected configuration on the PV is still a long way from what it was at this time last year.:D

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The GEFS 6z mean is still strongly supportive of high pressure building in over the uk with night frosts and fog returning after the current mild / changeable spell..so the chances of a settled mid dec period are still looking good.

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Edited by Frosty.

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1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

The GEFS 6z mean is still strongly supportive of high pressure building in and becoming centred over the uk with night frosts and fog returning after the current mild / changeable spell.

Plenty showing the high migrating north by 300

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The gefs now dropping the average mslp across nw Europe later week two which ties in with the eps theme and may lead to Exeter beginning to trend away from their blocked outlook week 2 onwards 

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Its these charts that concern me most of all, if these come off how they're strongly signalled to now then we wont just be looking at December being written off, you can kiss goodbye to most of January as well and with a w-qbo and low solar activity............

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2014110218&var=HGT&lev=10mb&hour=384

 

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Agree it's disappointing to continually look into the far reaches of FI, but signs of optimism in the ensemble groups. Vortex under increasing pressure thanks to WAA in N Europe and the N Atlantic. If I was a betting man I'd say a crisp, settled Christmas under high pressure. Where that HP cell goes thereafter though is anyone's guess - the form horse would be to sink into Europe, but no one can say with any confidence even into next week yet . 

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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Its these charts that concern me most of all, if these come off how they're strongly signalled to now then we wont just be looking at December being written off, you can kiss goodbye to most of January as well and with a w-qbo and low solar activity............

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2014110218&var=HGT&lev=10mb&hour=384

 

But aren't these charts just using the same GFS data, the Same GFS and GEFS that can swing wildly (as recently) every run? Not sure what the point of worrying about it is, it was a bit like getting excited at the potential being shown by those very same charts not to long back. 

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Just now, frosty ground said:

But aren't these charts just using the same GFS data, the Same GFS and GEFS that can swing wildly (as recently) every run? Not sure what the point of worrying about it is, it was a bit like getting excited at the potential being shown by those very same charts not to long back. 

The last few years GFS FI has been a useless failure when its started to predict stratospheric warming events, however, when it finally works out the strength (or lack of) any warming and consistently cottoned on to it, it has more often than not been right, and make no mistake we would need a full on top down SSW to rescue this winter if the next few weeks pan out as they are likely to.

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Lots of changes with the models over last few weeks hope we get a trend to colder weather soon.

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IMG_1254.GIF

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The models do seem to be making a lot of drama over that shortwave near Iceland. They can't seem to decide whether it separates cleanly or whether it phases with the upstream troughing within the T96hrs timeframe. This does have some impact going forward.

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Still very unclear how much cold air there will actually be over Europe come beginning of the next week. Huge spread on 13th.

graphe3_1000___18.3962264151_49.75708502

OP once again singing mild tune in FI. Not warm but not exactly cold either with Europe shielded by HP and lows tracking north but definitely terrible outlook for already weak sea ice in Kara and Barents sea.

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41 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The last few years GFS FI has been a useless failure when its started to predict stratospheric warming events, however, when it finally works out the strength (or lack of) any warming and consistently cottoned on to it, it has more often than not been right, and make no mistake we would need a full on top down SSW to rescue this winter if the next few weeks pan out as they are likely to.

I have to agree with most of what you say and other than some seismic shift this month at least will not be for  coldies,as to January best to wait a while longer to make any judgements.

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Interesting stuff Steve and thanks for your explanation as to your "mood" yesterday!

Question I have, and this is to anyone really, is why has it all gone Pete Tong? Why are we not on the brink of a decent cold spell?

If it's been answered elsewhere then forgive me :o)

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The extended GEFS 6z is not without interest for coldies thank God! 

There are some wintry / snowy and frosty perturbations just in time for the Christmas period!:santa-emoji:

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Edited by Frosty.

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15 minutes ago, tcc said:

Interesting stuff Steve and thanks for your explanation as to your "mood" yesterday!

Question I have, and this is to anyone really, is why has it all gone Pete Tong? Why are we not on the brink of a decent cold spell?

If it's been answered elsewhere then forgive me :o)

Because theres no forcing stopping it recover-

The -5 reversal forecast was essentially a canadian warming that didnt happen-

so unless we get a proper warming then it will continue- the fact we are WQBO doesnt help-

the only crumb is that the volatile CFS swung back to a record breaking reversal today in Jan ^ its on my chart as a purple line ...

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