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Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Yate, Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Harsh Frosts & Heavy Snow
  • Location: Yate, Bristol

I like that there's plenty of room for downgrades. If it gets watered down (which we know it inevitably will) we should still see something decent. Usually we see marginal set ups at best.. especially down here.

Please just this one time :cold:

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Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside

Here's the big three now 4th Jan

gfsnh-0-138.pngUN144-21.GIFECH1-144.GIF.png

Edited by Day 10
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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent

After the colder snap in to new year more colder spells are possible looks like meto getting on board.

IMG_0121.PNG

Edited by abbie123
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Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
18 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

For the UK this is actually stupidly cold. The country does not have the infrastructure to deal with this, and most people don't have winter tyres or proper winter driving skills so the roads would be chaos too compared to countries more accustomed to such temperatures. Be careful what you wish for. A couple of degrees below freezing and a little snow should be sufficient away from the Scottish Highlands. 

 

 

gfs-9-360.png

I totally agree. As much as love this run, I think a lot of us would be losing their income due to not being able to get to work?

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Posted
  • Location: Newton Aycliffe, County Durham... 90m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow and thunderstorms :)
  • Location: Newton Aycliffe, County Durham... 90m asl

So gfs op was well on its own in FI. Still lots of scatter after initial cold snap, all pointing in the right direction though.

Edited by doctor32
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Posted
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All seasons veteran of the 1981 winter
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
20 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

For the UK this is actually stupidly cold. The country does not have the infrastructure to deal with this, and most people don't have winter tyres or proper winter driving skills so the roads would be chaos too compared to countries more accustomed to such temperatures. Be careful what you wish for. A couple of degrees below freezing and a little snow should be sufficient away from the Scottish Highlands. 

 

 

gfs-9-360.png

I know what you mean..

I drive a subaru forester All Wheel Drive with winter tyres I have to in my location. 

A posh Audi or BMW would be inappropriate and i would inevitably get stuck.

The subaru foresters are an amazing car in the snow the best ever imo.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
5 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

Here's the big three now 4th Jan

gfsnh-0-138.pngUN144-21.GIFECH1-144.GIF.png

So only the GFS 6z has the Azores low going into Iberia - that's definitely the thing to keep an eye on for me in the next runs.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Suspect the gefs will struggle somewhat if the story is to be split flow off the eastern seaboard 

looking for consistency in the story and then watch to see how they resolve the split - surprised to see the Greenland anomoly so defined in week 2. That could be too much WAA going north rather than some of that jet heading se into the southern arm 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Royston Vasey, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms and sunshine
  • Location: Royston Vasey, Lincolnshire

Hi all. First post.

Were those charts to actually come to fruition, I think it would be the most severe cold spell since Jan 87' which was the coldest spell of the 20th century. It would also be exactly 30yrs since that brutal cold. Strangely I was thinking yesterday that the charts are all over the place just like they were before the 87 spell........It will probably be gone on the next run though. 

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Posted
  • Location: Marlborough, North East Wiltshire 143M/469ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snow in the winter, warm and dry in the summer !
  • Location: Marlborough, North East Wiltshire 143M/469ft ASL

Nice to see the mean 850hpa temp down below freezing for the entire run after the 1st Jan

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

A few posts hidden, Just model discussion please in here, There is always the moan/ramp thread for chit-chat.

Thanks please continue.

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Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
Just now, sorepaw1 said:

I know what you mean..

I drive a subaru forester All Wheel Drive with winter tyres I have to in my location. 

A posh Audi or BMW would be inappropriate and i would inevitably get stuck.

The subaru foresters are an amazing car in the snow the best ever imo.

 

I used to own one but got rid of it for a front wheel drive:fool:

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

Possible outlier :nea:

IMG_5017.GIF

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Posted
  • Location: Ampthill, Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Heat, Cold, Sun
  • Location: Ampthill, Bedfordshire
3 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

I totally agree. As much as love this run, I think a lot of us would be losing their income due to not being able to get to work?

I really wouldn't worry, that chart is 15 days away. @ 102hrs then we should start raising eyebrows

It will inevitably get watered down, nearly always does.

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Posted
  • Location: Mid Welsh/English Border
  • Weather Preferences: Snow! Exciting weather!
  • Location: Mid Welsh/English Border
2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Possible outlier :nea:

IMG_5017.GIF

.............or leading the way forward? :cold:

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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

The 06 GEFS show a LOT of very cold runs and some are tightly clustered at sub -10 hPa.

The Stella FI Op run is at the extreme end but there is pretty compelling support for a significant cold spell within the next 2-3 weeks

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.aspx?model=gfs&var=2&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.1257&lid=ENS&country=de&zip=&bw=true

:)

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Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
8 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

So only the GFS 6z has the Azores low going into Iberia - that's definitely the thing to keep an eye on for me in the next runs.

Exactly mate, we can't get too carried away just yet. Differences in all 3 there. Let's pray GFS is right, pity it's the 6z, mind you ECM goes onto produce too. Very interesting 12z's tonight.

Edited by Day 10
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe
  • Location: Crewe

A couple of things here...

I'm by no means an expert - just a novice - but a question to the experts if possible? Where is the point of no return, by that I mean the set up is there where the cold has to come in? What's the realistic timescale, as I'm guessing if we get certain things in the nearer timescale 'down' then things will click into place?  Then it gives us an area to count down from? :)

Also can someone save this run for future reference. #WeatherPorn :rofl:

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Posted
  • Location: Buckshaw Village, Lancashire
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, frosty autumns and snowy winters
  • Location: Buckshaw Village, Lancashire
Just now, sorepaw1 said:

I know what you mean..

I drive a subaru forester All Wheel Drive with winter tyres I have to in my location. 

A posh Audi or BMW would be inappropriate and i would inevitably get stuck.

The subaru foresters are an amazing car in the snow the best ever imo.

 

Great charts and great posts, albeit FI but still raises hope.

With regards to sorepaw1's post above, I have a 'posh' Audi however it's an Allroad with adjustable air suspension and winter tyres, I'm ex-military with reasonable experience driving in extreme winter conditions, the problem I have is being stuck behind cars with either summer tyres or big 4x4's where the drivers don't know how to drive and live on their brakes!

Will be very interesting to see how the 'snow fest' offerings develop/down grade over the next few days. 

Heres looking to a good 'coldies' outlook for Jan :cold::yahoo:

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Posted
  • Location: Swansea South West Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow in winter Warm Sunny Summer
  • Location: Swansea South West Wales
5 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Possible outlier :nea:

IMG_5017.GIF

Op is nearly 10 degrees lower than the mean but there's a cluster around -10 I'd take one of those I'm not picky as long as there's snow chances 

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Posted
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Anything interesting!
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex

Returned from holiday after leaving a forum awash with pessimism and zonal nightmare scenarios, and just logged in and seen the 6z following on from yesterday's different but much more positive outputs... Bloody Hell. I doubt many would have believed that run could resolve from what was on offer a short while ago?

Just out of interest - is the 6z still considered the ugly sister of the GFS runs? I know it used to have a bad reputation among many on here, but not sure if it was/is still deserved.

Obviously what we witnessed this morning is a rank outsider in terms of accurate verification at this range, and may be dropped altogether shortly. However from 10+ years of lurking on the site, I have a sense we now at least have a horse in the gate - rather than one charging around in the paddock with the jockey chasing after it. 

Not expecting anything like that to roll out on the 12z's, but looking forward to finding out.

Edited by Number 23
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