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Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Cloud 10 Veteran

Cloud 10

Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
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Posted

Day 9 ens. mean 850's from the 06z pretty stunning.

 

I declare the 06z to be the new pub run.:drunk-emoji:

 

gensnh-21-0-216.png

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carinthian Maestro

carinthian

Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
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Posted
2 hours ago, carinthian said:

Major cold spell coming for Europe if that set up comes off. Could eventually see a link with the Arctic high and Atlantic block and then an easterly possible as indicated by the GFS in post 240h. At this stage all dependant where the Euro trough is centred and where the cold high relocates. Good charts this morning for cold weather fans. Its getting there, slowly but surely.

C

ECMOPEU00_240_2.png

Time for a real Ramp. You have to love these two charts below from GFS latest run. Brutal cold import from Euroland and good snow cover through the heart of Blighty. If any nation deserves a real cold winter spell , you lot do ( cold fans only ).

C

GFSOPUK06_384_10.png

GFSOPEU06_384_47.png

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Seasonality Accomplished

Seasonality

Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
Posted

For the UK this is actually stupidly cold. The country does not have the infrastructure to deal with this, and most people don't have winter tyres or proper winter driving skills so the roads would be chaos too compared to countries more accustomed to such temperatures. Be careful what you wish for. A couple of degrees below freezing and a little snow should be sufficient away from the Scottish Highlands. 

 

 

gfs-9-360.png

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted (edited)

IMG_5016.GIF

ECM was on the mild side.

some very cold runs in there

Edited by karlos1983
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Pembroke Dangler Aficionado

Pembroke Dangler

Posted
  • Location: Swansea South West Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow in winter Warm Sunny Summer
  • Location: Swansea South West Wales
Posted
1 minute ago, ALL ABOARD said:

 

control.png

Control??



run.png

Op??




Upgrade?????


 

Wow that's quite unanimous support from the control nearly identical with energy undercutting the block coming out of the states and height lowering into Iberia. 

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cheshire snow Veteran

cheshire snow

Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
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Posted

Weather Warning issued to Sidney from the GFS

Gather your nuts and keep warm...its going to get cold

Only Joking Knocker

 

C.S

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stewfox Accomplished

stewfox

Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Hammer50 said:

1963 1947 which one or could this beat the both of them.

One run 06z , I can hear rumblings from JH a coming. :)

Edited by stewfox
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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted
Just now, radiohead said:

Some stunning eye candy in the GEFS...

gens-15-1-336_qch7.png

Control breaks it down from the NW and the Op I think will be one of the coldest runs, awesome runabs fingers crossed but lets see what the next few do - along with METO update.

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doctor32 Community Regular

doctor32

Posted
  • Location: Newton Aycliffe, County Durham... 90m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow and thunderstorms :)
  • Location: Newton Aycliffe, County Durham... 90m asl
Posted

out to +192hrs both op and control look to be on the colder side of the gefs/mean

graphe3_1000_306_141___Londres (2).gif

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wiltshire weather Enthusiast

wiltshire weather

Posted
  • Location: Marlborough, North East Wiltshire 143M/469ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snow in the winter, warm and dry in the summer !
  • Location: Marlborough, North East Wiltshire 143M/469ft ASL
Posted

I'm a long time lurker on here and very rarely post, but some of the charts from the GFS 06Z are almost beyond belief so couldn't help myself!

Looking forward to the informed dissection of the supporting ensembles etc. from various members that I hold in very high regard, even when they disagree!

Here's hoping the 12Z model runs continue the general theme even though it's unlikely they will be quite as spectacular.

 

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sorepaw1 Rising Star

sorepaw1

Posted
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All seasons veteran of the 1981 winter
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
Posted

I've noticed that sometimes even with a northerly flow high pressure there's been  some quite beefy snow showers moving down the north Sea coastal areas even as far down of the Kent coast.. January 1995 was a classic for my neck of the woods 

I think there's going to be a few pleasant surprises for coldies in the coming days or so..

I wouldn't be to disappointed if I lived down south with today's 06z. 

If it's a wintery mix you like.

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Cloud 10 Veteran

Cloud 10

Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
Posted
5 minutes ago, radiohead said:

Some stunning eye candy in the GEFS...

gens-15-1-336_qch7.png

 

Yes,plenty of ens. members equally as insane as the op run!

 

A more than decent 360 hrs ensemble mean as well.

 

gensnh-21-5-360.png

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