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Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

12z is pretty different in the mid Atlantic.

12zgfs-0-156.png?126zgfs-0-162.png?6

 

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
On 23/12/2016 at 23:39, mountain shadow said:

I admire your fortitude but I will save you the bother. There will be no Northerly other than a  brief 12 hour affair for a lucky few.

As I mentioned last week, I was fairly certain that the initial Northerly would be a brief affair and that appears will be the case. Will the second shot be anymore likely?

I say no, as the AAM, MJO and PV strength do not support it. I would again therefore caution against believing any model output showing a HLB favourable for snow to our islands.

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
2 minutes ago, SN0WM4N said:

12z is pretty different in the mid Atlantic.

12zgfs-0-156.png?126zgfs-0-162.png?6

 

Weaker shortwave + more energy going under will surely give us a better outcome than the 6z.... 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

Not good(read awful) 12z output for coldies from UKMO and GFS in the more reliable. Snow chances and cold upper air very limited and shortlived.

UN144-21.GIF?28-17gfsnh-0-162.png?12

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: Barnsley
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Barnsley
3 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

As I mentioned last week, I was fairly certain that the initial Northerly would be a brief affair and that appears will be the case. Will the second shot be anymore likely?

I say no, as the AAM, MJO and PV strength do not support it. I would again therefore caution against believing any model output showing a HLB favourable for snow to our islands.

Interesting guess/prediction. I'll save this for future reference :)

Good to see the northerly plunge still on for the UK despite you saying otherwise on the 23rd. I'll take my chances and pin my hopes on January being a colder than average month with some snowfall :D

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
9 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Weaker shortwave + more energy going under will surely give us a better outcome than the 6z.... 

Far the opposite I'm afraid. The 2nd trough in the Atlantic stops heights retrogressing west and will flatten the pattern faster. 

12z now with a SW'ly flow establishing.

gfsnh-0-186.png?12

6z Under a colder westerly flow 

gfsnh-0-192.png?6

Edited by SN0WM4N
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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

Well a very different run between day 5 & 7 in the Atlantic, a very complex scenario unfolding. We seem to be scraping the worst possible scenario from the potential, as per!!

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

What happens towards the south east corner of the High, i.e the UK, is open to debate. I reckon GFS op is underplaying the energy profile between the Scandi trough and Azores Low. It may well end up as shown on the Op but i wouldn't be surprised to see a much more active scenario in that area, in turn providing a more unstable pattern with the chance of more ppn. The centre of the high is far enough west to get some energy underneath and potentially get some of the white stuff for England and Wales at least.

I may be wrong totally wrong, but its not out of the question.

gfs.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
8 minutes ago, SN0WM4N said:

Far the opposite I'm afraid. The 2nd trough in the Atlantic stops heights retrogressing west and will flatten the pattern faster. 

12z now with a SW'ly flow establishing.

gfsnh-0-186.png?12

6z

gfsnh-0-192.png?6

Under a colder westerly flow 

Well and DEEP into FI hardly worth getting concerned over , we can really only look at 120 - 144 and just enjoy and disect the rest for fun - only

Edited by Banbury
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12 minutes ago, SN0WM4N said:

Far the opposite I'm afraid. The 2nd trough in the Atlantic stops heights retrogressing west and will flatten the pattern faster.

It's tempting to think that- after all, it's what almost always happens in these scenarios. However, a check through charts dating to cold and snowy winters of the past often show "horrendous" set-ups, shortly before strong Northern blocking establishes. As far as GFS at 204 is concerned, it could easilly go Northerly from there.

Edited by snowwman
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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
1 minute ago, Banbury said:

Well and DEEP into FI hardly worth getting concerned over , we can really only look at 120 - 144 and just enjoy and disect the rest for fun - only

Doesn't mean it shouldn't be discussed and days 5-7 aren't DEEP FI either. 

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
36 minutes ago, mhielte said:

Interesting guess/prediction. I'll save this for future reference :)

Good to see the northerly plunge still on for the UK despite you saying otherwise on the 23rd. I'll take my chances and pin my hopes on January being a colder than average month with some snowfall :D

Really? i said the Northerly would be a brief affair and indeed it will be. The next Northerly looks like failing too which I had predicted before the 12z came out.

Edited by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on.
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Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
2 minutes ago, SN0WM4N said:

Doesn't mean it shouldn't be discussed and days 5-7 aren't DEEP FI either. 

anything at 192 is well into FI .......imo of course , yes worth a discussion but not of concern...imo

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Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
3 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

It's not good long term but is a very complex set up.

I wouldn't rule our very sudden changes in the 96 to 120 hr mark. We are on the cusp of something 

Indeed it is, so much going on up there

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
1 minute ago, Banbury said:

anything at 192 is well into FI .......imo of course , yes worth a discussion but not of concern...imo

It should be worth the concern when it continues to show in output. To get anything decent we're going to need to see some drastic changes from the models which I don't see happening.

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Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
31 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Really? i said the Northerly would be a brief affair and indeed it will be. The next Northerly looks like failing too which I had predicted before the 12z came 

Sadly, the 36 hour shot on New Years is as good as it gets in the foreseeable!

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
25 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Really i said the Northerly would be a brief affair and indeed it will be. The next Northerly looks like failing too which I had predicted before the 12z came out.

You made a guess with no supportive evidence from any actual model and now your doing the same..... just think you need the correct thread to ha either your guesses aired

Edited by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on.
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Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
18 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Well a very different run between day 5 & 7 in the Atlantic, a very complex scenario unfolding. We seem to be scraping the worst possible scenario from the potential, as per!!

Yes, the 06z and 12z pretty much the same until T+168, then from T+171 onwards they are poles apart.

FI clearly T+168 if not sooner. Anything modelled after that, in my opinion, is "just for fun".

 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

GFS gives another short-lived northerly late next week

gfsnh-0-222.png?12

This then get's shoved east as pressure builds in

gfsnh-0-240.png?12gfsnh-0-312.png?12gfsnh-0-360.png?12gfsnh-0-384.png?12

The story of winter so far with high pressure always close by

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Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

GFS gives another short-lived northerly late next week

gfsnh-0-222.png?12

This then get's shoved east as pressure builds in

gfsnh-0-240.png?12gfsnh-0-312.png?12gfsnh-0-360.png?12gfsnh-0-384.png?12

The story of winter so far with high pressure always close by

These charts come off and Turkey will be totally buried after what they've received already.The pain.

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