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Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

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Something to note on the 06 ens is those ppn spikes showing in an airmass of sub -5, just highlights the possibility of some snowfall if we get lucky. 

These are for Reading

GFSENS06_51_-1_205.png

p13 giving many in the south some significant snowfall!

 

gens-13-1-120.png

gens-13-2-126.png

 

And flicking through the various members it's amazing how although the longwave pattern is broadly similar the details are markedly different! Although on balance the type of flow on p13 looks to have fair support.

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Is it me? Just looking through the 6z GFS and it doesn't seem to justify much confidence in a several day+ cold spell. I'll bank the frost in London tonight, the rest is hope TBH.

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4 minutes ago, snowking said:

Just while we're on the subject of grammar - I sense you may mean paralytic as opposed to paraplegic Karlos. Though I suppose one combined with a cold spell may lead to the other...

SK

Kris, you have been surprisingly quiet this season thus far! has it been so underwhelming! 

and for those who are a bit new to all of this - don't look at GFS operational runs past day 7/8 and expect to see what is going to verify. More chance of a chimpanzee with some crayons and a black felt tip getting closer! 

the ens mean is going to give a better indication of what background upper pattern is likely but again, after day 9/10, this is also subject to be quite a way out. 

btw, remember ian said glosea was seeing an increasing number of PC members. The 06z GEFS does that but I suspect it's  a little earlier than glosea was seeing. 

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Wow, go out for a few hours and for more pages! 

ECM mean chart - sure, not as cold but do we hold the latest run in higher regard than the previous four? If the same pattern continues tonight and tomorrow, then perhaps we could put our money on it.

GEFS 06Z meanwhile is actually quite awesome. Almost every possible cold combination can be found within the members by D10! 

I think the reload is still the horse I'm backing, just about, but I'll jump ship if a couple more runs do away with it :)

Oh, and there's the little matter of snow showers now down to T108??

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7 minutes ago, AGAL said:

Because they don't get carried away with the models like we do. As of now we've had some frost. Looking at the 6z GFS there's nothing on there that would cause anyone to open a bag of rock salt

Seriously ?  That's just wrong. the GEFS is part of the 06z GFS suite. the operational should really only be viewed as a slightly more accurate ens member post days 7/8.

Edited by bluearmy
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Page 242 ten posts of one-liners, barely anything model-related, PM function not working? See you in the New Year. :bomb:

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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2 minutes ago, AGAL said:

Not sure what you mean there

Pardon my ignorance but where can you finds the GEFs ?

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ensemble-tt6-london.gif

You know what, maybe that ECM mean doesn't really mean anything this time. It's a pretty much 50/50 split between cold and less cold in FI.

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I've noticed the chart below is 1045mb.

From previous years of charts/ model watching these are very stubborn to shift so I'd say anything up to T+156 hrs is subject to a change. I'm hoping the 1045mb high doesn't sink south. 

But at the same time I can't see much north east movement just yet.

But around the 3rd of January I don't think the snow showers moving of the north Sea will just be exclusively for costal districts .

Very interesting times ahead indeed.

17010200_2806.gif

Edited by sorepaw1
Info
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5 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

ensemble-tt6-london.gif

You know what, maybe that ECM mean doesn't really mean anything this time. It's a pretty much 50/50 split between cold and less cold in FI.

Definitely a cold cluster in there towards the end of the run, though.

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Interesting 06Z...First shot at cold, though its depth of coldness might be a bit uncertain still, looks pretty nailed-on; the Orthodox White Christmas, however, seems to have largely evaporated...Still, the run is certainly no 'massive backtrack', indeed far F1 even hints at Nigel Mansell coming out of retirement?:santa-emoji:

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8 minutes ago, snowking said:

  While we're on the subject of ensembles, can somebody have a word with Ryan Maue and get him to extend the EPS stamps across to his friends in Europe too as a belated Christmas present to us :santa-emoji:

Seasons greetings to all.

Can only assume it's a licensing thing - maybe they need to pay more to show all the members over Europe 

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54 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Seriously ?  That's just wrong. the GEFS is part of the 06z GFS suite. the operational should really only be viewed as a slightly more accurate ens member post days 7/8.

Agreed - You should have been IMBY this morning and this afternoon its been a proper winters day - hard overnight frost - fog sticking around. Rock salt a plenty

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4 hours ago, 78/79 said:

This time last year people would have bitten your arm off for what's on offer at the moment.

I feel everyone gives last year a little too much credit. The chart below is from last year around this time too.

archivesnh-2016-1-3-12-0.pngarchivesnh-2016-1-4-12-0.png

We was actually really close bar some shortwave drama. 

Even further in

archivesnh-2016-1-9-0-0.png

PV in complete shambles. Due to heavy stratospheric influence. 

Edited by SN0WM4N
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Probably the wrong place to put this but @StormchaserUKEU have just tweeted:

Still looking promising currently for the risk of #snow on the back edge of the rain on Sunday. #StayTuned #uksnow ❄️❄️

What do the charts show with regards to this? What do the charts show with regard to the up and coming cold spell which now seems nailed on. 

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Ever so slightly more amplified at +81 hours on the 12z gfs with a bit more WAA on the west side of Greenland.

Mind not make a huge difference but good to see.

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Latest GFS run brings the cold air in very slightly earlier. If the trend continues will be able to set my New Year fireworks off in the cold air. Looking promising for some cold weather in January, with each northerly outbreak looking stronger than the next. I like that pattern as I think we are eventually going to go into deep cold on or before mid month.  This type of pattern usually produces in the end, and maybe earlier than is currently being suggested.  

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6 minutes ago, Snowmaggedon said:

Probably the wrong place to put this but @StormchaserUKEU have just tweeted:

Still looking promising currently for the risk of #snow on the back edge of the rain on Sunday. #StayTuned #uksnow ❄️❄️

What do the charts show with regards to this? What do the charts show with regard to the up and coming cold spell which now seems nailed on. 

GFS 12z Shows back edge snow across Northern England,Wales.and the Midlands,looks a bit iffy if I am honest South Midlands southwards,still time for changes though.

C.S

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3 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

GFS 12z Shows back edge snow across Northern England,Wales.and the Midlands,looks a bit iffy if I am honest South Midlands southwards,still time for changes though.

C.S

Back edge snow a possibility but black ice would be potential more likely and troublesome. Especially for the area where the front clears during the night.

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