Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

[Ali1977]

So last night and this morning runs not as good, no doubt they will flip again today. This season has been so hard to nail down  even beyond day 6-7!! 

[bluearmy]

6 minutes ago, IDO said:

I think we value the D8-10 ECM mean charts quite highly, its the ops we are wary of in these setups. At that range it is proven the mean is far better a guide than the respective ops for nailing the long wave pattern, and of course historically the ECM is number 1. 

I have to agree that PM zonal looks the form horse after D10. No access to EPS but only one GEFS has a HLB at D16 in our region and that is a weak cell. The spike in FI "potential" charts have downgraded in the last few days, but as the D16 uppers mean show, remaining on the cool side of seasonal, and from Jan 1 to the 13th the SE remains with mean uppers below 0c throughout, rare indeed:

D16 

And yet the mean anomolies don't look so bad on the GEFS. I agree re the individual members but what is the clustering like. If it isn't convincing then the route ahead may not be so clear re the obvious output from the model.

Btw, I have done a fair bit of checking the bias corrected GEFS against the normal and generally the two differences relevant to us are

a) euro mslp is always higher on the bias corrected

b) the Canadian vortex is always bigger on the bias corrceted

 

did you read my comments re the ECM op days 8/10 ? 

The gfsp offers an interesting view of the way forward ....messy but quite effective. Unlikely perhaps but what does look convincing at the moment? (Apart from temps liable to stay on the chilly to cold side).

[Scandinavian High.]

Cold and frosty in south east this morning January is looking cold maybe some snow in some parts so yes winter is on its way some snow and some very cold nights too.  I can't see no westerlies taking hold anytime soon a cold January is on the way my opinion looking way out to day 8-16 is likely to change like it all ways does.

[johnholmes]

19 minutes ago, stewfox said:

Anyway in the reliable we have -10c 850s over large parts of uk 2/1. Will worry about T240 when its no longer FI

Yes why folk seeing a colder picture emerging in the more reliable time frame then start worrying about something 10 days away always puzzles me. The anomaly charts predicted the cold spell but did also show a question mark over it being longer than about 5-7 days. The latest set suggests as others have indicated with a Polar Maritime airmass for most areas after this initial cold spell. Who knows what lies beyond 10-14 days? I remain with the anomaly charts for a good handle on the 6-14 day period and am not too concerned at either the longer outlook nor the vagaries of the 2x or 4x synoptic outputs. Again beyond 144h compare like with like not run to run.

links

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

The NAEFS 850 mb temperature chart shows the expected sequence of temperatures quite nicely

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/naefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=132&mode=1&map=1&runpara=

[Scandinavian High.]

32 minutes ago, Gibby said:

In my reports and forecasts to my local folk on my Kilmersdon Weather Facebook page I only use the ECM for my forecasts and since I started using it since it's upgrade I have found it very accurate including the controversial mean chart folks here diss. Discounting GFS and to some degree UKMO to some degree is a dangerous game for forecasting I know but I havent found ECM to have let me down as yet. I don't buy into this cold period other than for the first few days of 2017 as ECM for some runs now have kept heights too high to the South with the form horse increasingly preferring a return to milder Atlantic Westerlies and some rain alternating with colder polar maritime NW'lies. I know many of you don't like the mean chart but I do and this mornings offering is very poor if it's cold snowy weather your looking for and lo and behold it is largely borne out by the ensembles.

 

Hi I'm fairly new to this form just asking but the models can't even get it right week out they chop and change I see this chart 7th January that's 10 days way .

[karlos1983]

Well I'm not sure about the downgrades.... looking at 850's for the big 3 at D5, which is semi reliable timeframe but will no doubt change subtly over the next 24 hours, things look cold indeed!

ukmo probably translates to about -7 uppers to the south using the chart below.

 

[Johnp]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Well i will probably be in the minority here but i would prefer Gfs over Euro this morning.Gfs brings cold zonality as the jet heads south and we lose those awful euro heights.

Except cold zonality never actually happens in reality.

[West is Best]

Just now, Johnp said:

Except cold zonality never actually happens in reality.

That's not correct. I used to think the same but in recent times I've seen snow in north Devon two Decembers from cold zonality.

[Paul_1978]

So despite a touch of negativity in the last couple of pages, @MattHugo reports on Twitter that "00z EC by 216/240hr is general representative of the bulk of the EC ENS members with some sort of block to the W and NW".

And also that "the temp anomalies are off the scale NE Canada - interesting times ahead if you're after cold weather".

So, I'm sure it's probably not just me but we seem to have differing levels of positivity and negativity on here this morning - glass half full and glass half empty if you like. It's very confusing.

[jvenge]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

Well I'm not sure about the downgrades.... looking at 850's for the big 3 at D5, which is semi reliable timeframe but will no doubt change subtly over the next 24 hours, things look cold indeed!

ukmo probably translates to about -7 uppers to the south using the chart below.

 

Hi,

Any downgrades mentioned were for what happens after that. I don't think anyone is denying a cold shot, but shortly after it looks to be heading back to nearer normal or slightly below.

5 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

Hi I'm fairly new to this form just asking but the models can't even get it right week out they chop and change I see this chart 7th January that's 10 days way .

People will have different opinions, but a mean chart (that's of 51 members, I believe) out to day 10 is likely at the edge of the ability for it in my view. Some might say day 9 or day 8. 

 

[karlos1983]

Just now, Paul_1978 said:

So despite a touch of negativity in the last couple of pages, @MattHugo reports on Twitter that "00z EC by 216/240hr is general representative of the bulk of the EC ENS members with some sort of block to the W and NW".

And also that "the temp anomalies are off the scale NE Canada - interesting times ahead if you're after cold weather".

So, I'm sure it's probably not just me but we seem to have differing levels of positivity and negativity on here this morning - glass half full and glass half empty if you like. It's very confusing.

Yes I've also just seen a tweet from Weather web, that the ECM46 brings a real taste of winter! I always enjoyed his updates but he's gone premium now!  

[jvenge]

1 minute ago, Paul_1978 said:

So despite a touch of negativity in the last couple of pages, @MattHugo reports on Twitter that "00z EC by 216/240hr is general representative of the bulk of the EC ENS members with some sort of block to the W and NW".

And also that "the temp anomalies are off the scale NE Canada - interesting times ahead if you're after cold weather".

So, I'm sure it's probably not just me but we seem to have differing levels of positivity and negativity on here this morning - glass half full and glass half empty if you like. It's very confusing.

It's just the time scales :-) Many people have already skipped ahead of the coming cold shot and are looking for the next, which has weakened the last few runs. You need to be looking after day 10 now for a next colder shot, but that still means there is a colder shot coming before then and then nearer average temps until then.

[bluearmy]

6 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

Hi I'm fairly new to this form just asking but the models can't even get it right week out they chop and change I see this chart 7th January that's 10 days way .

Abbie, ECM is usually pretty good days 8/9, as long as it is headed in the right direction days 6/7. we usually have a decent handle on days 6/7 so we can make a pretty good judgement how much to trust the 8/9 offering. Day 10 is asking a bit much! 

Also, of it is consistent with its ensembles (and the previous suite ens)  at day 7 then I would trust 8/9 rather more. I think it's more about consistency than anything else. If the model isn't flip flopping about then it's probably in a more trustworthy period. The op is currently looking rather consistent in that T144/T216 period. 

[karyo]

3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Yes I've also just seen a tweet from Weather web, that the ECM46 brings a real taste of winter! I always enjoyed his updates but he's gone premium now!  

Has it updated today or are they referring to the one from a few days ago?

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, jvenge said:

Hi,

Any downgrades mentioned were for what happens after that. I don't think anyone is denying a cold shot, but shortly after it looks to be heading back to nearer normal or slightly below.

People will have different opinions, but a mean chart (that's of 51 members, I believe) out to day 10 is likely at the edge of the ability for it in my view. Some might say day 9 or day 8. 

 

Hi

I get that, I'm just saying there is still plenty of time for change. With all the flipping of late in the models, it probably pays not to look to far ahead, but obviously it must be discussed as that's what makes this forum great and how we look for trends going forward.

so your preaching to the converted friend! Mine was purely advisory 

 

[shotski]

2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Well I'm not sure about the downgrades.... looking at 850's for the big 3 at D5, which is semi reliable timeframe but will no doubt change subtly over the next 24 hours, things look cold indeed!

ukmo probably translates to about -7 uppers to the south using the chart below.

 

Agree, I'm not sure where this return to Zonal is coming from. As I understood it Cold, a brief milder interlude and then back to cold. Exact position of high to be resolved. GFS parallel is still bullish about keeping us cold with a mid Atlantic block out in FI with the south east seeing the coldest temperatures. ECM at day 10 also shows no sign of any Atlantic breakdown. 

[bluearmy]

3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Yes I've also just seen a tweet from Weather web, that the ECM46 brings a real taste of winter! I always enjoyed his updates but he's gone premium now!  

Where were you yesterday morning and Boxing Day late evening Karlos?  We did the ec 46 on here .

and matts tweet backs up the ens/op agreement which hangs back that Atlantic  ridge to our south towards the se euro high anomoly. 

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, karyo said:

Has it updated today or are they referring to the one from a few days ago?

I'm not sure Kayro, But his tweet was 50 mins ago..

[knocker]

7 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

So despite a touch of negativity in the last couple of pages, @MattHugo reports on Twitter that "00z EC by 216/240hr is general representative of the bulk of the EC ENS members with some sort of block to the W and NW".

And also that "the temp anomalies are off the scale NE Canada - interesting times ahead if you're after cold weather".

So, I'm sure it's probably not just me but we seem to have differing levels of positivity and negativity on here this morning - glass half full and glass half empty if you like. It's very confusing.

If you talking cold anomalies then that should read NW Canada moving south to cover most of the United States

[karlos1983]

5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Where were you yesterday morning and Boxing Day late evening Karlos?  We did the ec 46 on here .

and matts tweet backs up the ens/op agreement which hangs back that Atlantic  ridge to our south towards the se euro high anomoly. 

I couldn't get off the sofa, due to way to much food and probably a drop to much alcohol.... hic 

hands up I realise now that his tweet is 2 days late, maybe Simon had a bad hangover and only just took a peak. Man he will be peeved when he looks at this mornings "downgrades" 

 

Edited December 28, 2016 by karlos1983

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

I'm not sure Kayro, But his tweet was 50 mins ago..

It's the one we already dealt with from Monday night

[karyo]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

It's the one we already dealt with from Monday night

I see, thanks. 

[Paul_1978]

4 minutes ago, knocker said:

If you talking cold anomalies then that should read NW Canada moving south to cover most of the United States

Just quoting what Matt said - and he seems to be referring to warm anomalies in the NE, not cold anomalies in the NW.

[feb1991blizzard]

8 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Looking at Gibby's thought's this morning he doesn't see anything prolonged cold wise

 

He already posted it on here SS.

[knocker]

2 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

Just quoting what Matt said - and he seems to be referring to warm anomalies in the NE, not cold anomalies in the NW.

Well that is correct , warm anomalies in the far NE