Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

[winterof79]

Just now, Grimsby Snow Lover said:

Second bite of the cherry coming up!

I feel there will be many bites of the cherry in January if pressure remains near or West of the UK.

[feb1991blizzard]

Yes another one coming up, If the amount of cold and snow ive seen on NWP runs over the last 7 years or so had become reality, then by god I would have seen some snow!!!

[frosty ground]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes another one coming up, If the amount of cold and snow ive seen on NWP runs over the last 7 years or so had become reality, then by god I would have seen some snow!!!

Wrong thread Feb.... moaning thread is the one you want 

[snowwman]

Latest available ECMWF ensemble at mean for D10 maintains low heights into the Med, just about, and certainly leaves a reload of the Northerly open:

 

 

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Edited December 27, 2016 by snowwman

[swfc]

the comments that any cold spell have been derailed really are ott.you cant derail something 7-10 days away which is evolving!!!.these great charts of yesterday ete came from knowhere and have been watered down thats all.ian did say it would turn colder and blocked.this is about to happen

[Cheshire Freeze]

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes another one coming up, If the amount of cold and snow ive seen on NWP runs over the last 7 years or so had become reality, then by god I would have seen some snow!!!

As long as we keep seeing bouts of amplification upstream (aided partially by huge Pacific ridge), we have a decent enough chance of getting enough ridging towards Greenland 

I have the distinct feeling it's a matter of when rather than if.

Edited December 27, 2016 by CreweCold

[snowray]

Yup, looking rather juicy at day 10, the cold air is digging in right down to the South coast, undercut?! 

[The PIT]

Dunno what the panic is about it looks plenty of reloads will be on the cards. Either way the weather is going to be a lot interesting then it has been.

[Day 10]

Considering recent January's have been pretty crap to say the least. I'm quite happy with where the models sit right now. The big 3 at 120 look ok to me, at least we are in the game for cold & snow rather than in a hopeless zonal onslaught. Plenty of scope for upgrades surely...

 

[Daniel*]

Personally speaking T144 is FI there is a definite quite convincing snow signal across all the models. Looking at ECMWF 12z many places could at least see some transient snowfall.

[snowray]

Good old NAVGEM gives us a Northeasterly.

Still lots of interest on todays 12z runs then.

[gottolovethisweather]

This forum always seems to read; it's on, it's off, it's on, it's off again in the hunt for Synoptics the vast majority want in here, cold. The clue is in the timescales involved, as to whether people perceive an individual run to be a BOOM run or an epic FAIL. For crying out loud, oops. Cold air (Maxes 2-3c below average) has arrived, thick fog and frost are set to persist during daylight hours over the next 2-3 days for an unlucky (lucky?) few. Post next weekend, ever colder air (Maxes and Minimums several degrees below average) could bring some wintriness to some parts. The New Year period itself may NOT be in the bag yet, but with a mid-Atlantic blocking high positioned due NW/NNW of our shores, an albeit brief Northerly/Northeasterly flow is a decent outside possibility at such a range. In fact, they are dream-like winter wonderland charts given what we could have at D5/D6.Whether the Northerly/NE'rly flow lasts or not who knows, but the New Year period albeit temporarily milder, to begin with, will highly likely kick off 2017 on a HAPPY note for coldies, with wintry weather patterns never far away. More than enough reasons to be cheerful! Just don't go rocking the boat before it's even left the port, my friends. 

 

 

 

Edited December 27, 2016 by gottolovethisweather

[feb1991blizzard]

24 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Wrong thread Feb.... moaning thread is the one you want 

Nope - its model related, a criticism of the models and more importantly people who delude themselves by thinking they will verify.

[feb1991blizzard]

26 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

As long as we keep seeing bouts of amplification upstream (aided partially by huge Pacific ridge), we have a decent enough chance of getting enough ridging towards Greenland 

I have the distinct feeling it's a matter of when rather than if.

Its going to take some serious wave breaking to stabalise the pattern enough for any high to stay in situ long enough, huge odds against.

[Zakos]

I can understand the gloom given the very underwhelming December. Many of us (especially myself) were chasing day 10 charts that were constantly being pushed back. We aren't seeing that now.  

The screenshot below is from the meteoearth app. I believe it uses ECM data. It is quite useful for me as it only goes out to 5 day preventing too much excitement over charts too far into the future to be reliable.

 The brilliant charts we had earlier on in the season never got into the 5 day timeframe. The screenshot below shows,by a country mile, the best chart of the winter so far, very encouraging as we head into January.

We had an extremely blocked autumn. It's typical in December for the jet stream to be very active, now as we head into January hopefully we will see blocked conditions take over once more, this time with a much larger cold pool to tap into ...

Edited December 27, 2016 by Zakos

[Ventnor Viking]

Over the past few weeks a lot of end of year winter tension has been building and a few silly comments made - just think if everyone put a pound in for all the naughty words said at the models and too each other we could have all gone to Lapland and built snowmen together with good cheer.....anyway that's not the case.

The models are very turbulent at the moment, the ECM looks like the form horse to me. I think all models have been hinting at seeing colder conditions coming in and normally cold air is tough to budge and this is where we are likely to mild air and cold air battling with snow events taking place I for one love what each run can bring so lets all just chill (pun intended) wait for the fun to begin!

[Polar Maritime]

Posts hidden, Please continue discussion on what the Models are showing, Thanks.

[cheshire snow]

So in the semi reliable time frame we have freezing fog,frost,possibility of back edge 

Snow followed by snow showers for some and some folk are unhappy 

I suppose why some folk are unhappy is the fact we don't have -15 uppers and a

Screaming NE wind and whiteout conditions.

C.S

[london-snow]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

When background signals are favourable, there's no guarantee of cold, particularly early in winter because even if good synoptics occur, there may not be any cold pooling, but when everythings against, you cant rule out brief transient snow events, topplers, PM incursions etc but blocking is extremely unlikely.

Blocking was there back end of Nov and into this month mate and look what happened then. Call me old fashioned and I've harped on about this for years (Never mind what goes on in the strat ect ect ect. If you see a cold period of weather approaching grasp it and it may grow into something special) Once cold weather is established on our shores the output is a day by day game imo ups and downs for sure but at least we have a ticket and that ticket seems only a few hundred miles away at this point so not that far off and plenty to be positive.

[mhielte]

2 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

There were lots of GEFS members showing uppers very cold for days a few runs ago, they are fast disappearing and with the Met Office outlook not suggesting much PPN after some very insignificant back edge snow on the weekend, it looks like another garden path job again, mind you the background signals never really suggested HLB in the first place. Well at least we can look forward to some frosty clear days and interesting weather  .zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.

I'm shocked that you can call the future with any confidence given the variance in the model output especially after t120. We have a cold snap to look forward to to begin the new year and after that, who knows? All we can do is comment on the potential, whichever way it may lean.

As it happens, the potential is for the cold to stay for a while longer with the prospect of reloads from the north or even north-east if you believe some models this evening. What isn't wise is to dismiss the prospects entirely based on unreliable long-term forecasts and the odd dodgy run. The GFS 12z ensembles show a noticeable upgrade compared to the 6z. Am I calling a snowy month based on that alone? Of course not!

There are plenty of people who read this thread as an education (myself included) and posts like the one quoted are extremely misleading. Is it that hard to view the models with a modicum of impartiality? 

edit: I recognise posts in a similar vein to mine have been removed. I understand and respect if mine goes the same route but I feel it is an important message to get across

 

Edited December 27, 2016 by mhielte
a plea to the Gods

[bluearmy]

Day 9 ecm op anomoly pretty good agreement with the ens mean anomolies / therefore it is a run which should be given plenty of respect days 7/10. Now to the potential problem for coldies. I mentioned the potential for the hang back of high heights into Europe from the Atlantic ridging this morning and at day 10, when the ens anomoly says the hang back should be almost gone, the new op maintains it down into se Europe 

those bloody euro heights could well derail the first half of January, just as they did the first half of December re advecting deep cold across the UK. (For more than a day or so).

the eps can sing all they like about cold patterns post day 10 but when the op gets hold of the same solution, it generally gives you a good indication of where the ens are probably incorrect 

. 

[phil nw.]

This thread will read a lot better if a few of you stopped bickering over each other's pov.It's just spoiling the thread for the majority-pm each other if you wish to continue down that road.

By all means have different views on the outputs but keep them polite and if possible use charts  etc to back up what is said.  

Now then back to on topic posts please- just discuss what's in the outputs.

Thanks all.

 

[PersianPaladin]

"INTERESTING" is the one word that does sum up the models of late. Certainly not boring, at least from the point of view of those interested in the technical side of weather prediction. There is a lot that can change, and within a surprisingly narrow time-frame.

Edited December 27, 2016 by PersianPaladin

[Man With Beard]

Very interesting watching the ECM unfold on NH view. HP in the North Pacific makes big inroads towards the pole. The PV gets pushed more and more towards Russia and Siberia. It puts us in touch of really really deep cold and just needs amplification towards Iceland for us to tap in by D11/D12. The second bite at the cherry could well be a much bigger bite.

[snowice]

48 minutes ago, snowray said:

Good old NAVGEM gives us a Northeasterly.

Still lots of interest on todays 12z runs then.

00z ec 12 members had it the same as NAVGEM the placement of the high has a number of variables