Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

[radiohead]

GFS P 



Edited December 27, 2016 by radiohead

[sorepaw1]

Just now, radiohead said:

GFS P 

 

Where is the uk under all that lol.

[Man With Beard]

2 minutes ago, radiohead said:

GFS P 



That could be an epic cold/snow event - well the P was way ahead of the other models on seeing the stormy Christmas up north so who knows? Certainly potential on other models for a second cold shot from the north between 6 and 10 Jan.

[johnholmes]

The anomaly charts have shown a cold (not just surface) spell from the end of the year for 7-10 days for the last 3 days.

latest links below

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

with ECMWF-GFS rather less so

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

NAEFS also along the same lines

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/naefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=240&mode=0&map=1&runpara=

Detail of any snowfall will only show up on the synoptic models and there will as always be variations between them right down to T+24h, maybe an even shorter time scale.

[Snowmaggedon]

7 minutes ago, stewfox said:

whats happened to Fergie post ?

I've been following netweather for many a year, haven't posted on here in years but Fergie's post was the most wintriest update I've seen him post in a while.

And I just want to say I love reading this thread every winter, keep it up guys. 

[Ali1977]

Agreed ref the GFSP above, that would be a newsworthy winter storm in its FI, lets get the cold in first and then hopefully we can start getting some form of slider and decent Easterly feed that bring us all the goods, not just North facing coasts.

[NorthYorksWeather]

13 minutes ago, sorepaw1 said:

If this chart was to pull off for around new years day my neck of the woods could have travel disruption and some of the snow showers moving well inland. 

Possibly getting into central and some southern areas.

Still to early to pin point exact areas.

But something to bear in mind. 

Indeed, not sure of your exact location but this time next week we could see a bit of snow from convective snow showers, albeit only a brief window for showers as the high looks to topple over us.

Latest GFS shows a 12 hr period of potentially beefy showers moving in from the NE.

We must tread carefully though @sorepaw1 as these charts are still 144 hrs away, and small changes could mean snow showers remaining out to sea. But fingers crossed we will be up in the North York Moors this time next week testing out the winter tyres.

[blizzard81]

Does anybody know what Fergie posted this morning?

[sorepaw1]

8 minutes ago, vizzy2004 said:

Indeed, not sure of your exact location but this time next week we could see a bit of snow from convective snow showers, albeit only a brief window for showers as the high looks to topple over us.

Latest GFS shows a 12 hr period of potentially beefy showers moving in from the NE.

We must tread carefully though @sorepaw1 as these charts are still 144 hrs away, and small changes could mean snow showers remaining out to sea. But fingers crossed we will be up in the North York Moors this time next week testing out the winter tyres.

I live near Goathland it can be sleeting in pickering and 3" of snow up here. Love your post BTW. Hope you had a lovely Christmas. 

Edited December 27, 2016 by sorepaw1

[fergieweather]

6 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Does anybody know what Fergie posted this morning?

Sorry - apparently it was copied to a Facebook group without permission. We had this issue a year or two ago. Thus removed to prevent further reproduction with risk of changed context. 

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

5 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

Sorry - apparently it was copied to a Facebook group without permission. We had this issue a year or two ago. Thus removed to prevent further reproduction with risk of changed context. 

Such a shame that happened again Ian as I and everyone else on here really appreciate all your contributions( even if I don't always fully understand what you say ).

Edited December 27, 2016 by Grimsby Snow Lover

[winterof79]

5 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

Sorry - apparently it was copied to a Facebook group without permission. We had this issue a year or two ago. Thus removed to prevent further reproduction with risk of changed context. 

Hi Fergie, so this is the little Low you referred to I believe. Started its journey s/e of Iceland

 

GFS 06Z starting to pick up on the feature too now

 

[Polar Maritime]

OK no more on Ian post, Please continue.

[Cloud 10]

Worth posting a Northern hemisphere chart from the GFS 00z P run,just to show an example of a pretty much perfect Greenland high.

 

[aitchbomb]

I read the post at about 3 am and it was very upbeat about significant -ve temps v climo for all of Jan and would have been misused by some so again he ll probably have to stop posting interesting insights for the Forum yet  again 

[Stuie]

4 minutes ago, Cloud 10 said:

Worth posting a Northern hemisphere chart from the GFS 00z P run,just to show an example of a pretty much perfect Greenland high.

 

And here is the ENS to go with it

 

[shotski]

6 minutes ago, Cloud 10 said:

Worth posting a Northern hemisphere chart from the GFS 00z P run,just to show an example of a pretty much perfect Greenland high.

 

And it was showing almost exactly the same thing yesterday, I think it was the 12z. Something is afoot. 

[johnholmes]

post deleted

Edited December 27, 2016 by johnholmes
Should have looked above and seen the post from PM - apologies

[Gustywind]

Shades of Feb 47 on the GFS(P) this morning, certainly get widespread disruption and serious snowfall amounts if those charts proved to be close to the reality, shame they probably won't be!

Looks like the initial new year northerly is fairly likely now given the model consensus at 144 hours, plenty of doubt over what happens afterwards though. Not entirely convinced about the ECM between 168-216 this morning, the way it smoothly and quickly collapses the rising pressure in southern Greenland and pushes the high back south eastwards at the same time. Bit too quick and smooth for me.

[Stuie]

Is this potentially one of those graupel moments on the back edge?.....

[fergieweather]

4 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

I suspect it was the chart he posted and it then being posted on to Facebook, copyright infringements with UK Met I expect, although Ian is the one to give the actual reason.

The licensing agreement with UKMO, negotiated a few years ago, is for sharing selected items that help offer technical context to forecasts, but social media growth means a risk of items disseminated without permission or proper context and thus possibly not in spirit of original forecast thinking. For now, I'm afraid that means no further sharing of that material aside from more limited ones through twitter, given sensitivities. Back to model discussion.

[NorthYorksWeather]

33 minutes ago, sorepaw1 said:

I live near Goathland it can be sleeting in pickering and 3" of snow up here. Love your post BTW. Hope you had a lovely Christmas. 

The risk of snow is still there for those along eastern coastal areas on the 6Z, however that's 3 GFS  runs on the trot where it has been downgraded slightly with the high moving slightly east every time which will limit convection due to higher pressure and also limit how far these showers push inland. It would take some big changes for the North York Moors to not see snow but myself being 25 miles inland there really cant be anymore downgrades.

This is a trend we need to see stopping or all we will end up with is a dusting on Flamborough Head, and we cant have @mike57 hogging all the snow in Bempton now can we.

[Nick L]

1 minute ago, fergieweather said:

The licensing agreement with UKMO, negotiated a few years ago, is for sharing selected items that help offer technical context to forecasts, but social media growth means a risk of items disseminated without permission or proper context and thus possibly not in spirit of original forecast thinking. For now, I'm afraid that means no further sharing of that material aside from more limited ones through twitter, given sensitivities. Back to model discussion.

To be fair Ian, I am sure this forum gets far more hits than a Facebook weather group. Just something to perhaps consider in future.

[radiohead]

A mostly dry (initial?) cold spell on the 06Z GFS. Lying snow mainly confined to Scotland as the encroaching high pressure reduces the chance of wintry precipitation.

[fergieweather]

1 minute ago, Nick L said:

To be fair Ian, I am sure this forum gets far more hits than a Facebook weather group. Just something to perhaps consider in future.

I know: but it's moderated etc. Facebook isn't.