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Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

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16 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Eps not nearly as good for cold (wrt previous suite) as the Atlantic upper pattern pretty flat days 8/10. This looks to be in response to a mean energy transfer Siberian vortex to Canadian which wasn't apparent previous few runs. This a move towards the earlier gefs but a cross between the two could be pretty muted re any deep cold for us if we can't drop the euro heights convincingly. 

rather hoped we would retain some polar profile continuity. No chickens can be counted apart from an initial cool down days 6/8 to below av temps. 

You say they aren't as good blue but when I was waiting for the de Bilt to update to the latest run the 8-10 day period have much more v cold runs showing up - I'm aware de Bilt gets a continental tweak so slightly colder but I thought they looked better further on. Have you got a UK comparison you could post for the last 2 runs - or anyone?

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1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

You say they aren't as good blue but when I was waiting for the de Bilt to update to the latest run the 8-10 day period have much more v cold runs showing up - I'm aware de Bilt gets a continental tweak so slightly colder but I thought they looked better further on. Have you got a UK comparison you could post for the last 2 runs - or anyone?

Suspect they reflect the less unsettled scenario painted by the new run. London may well look colder later but that would not reflect the type of scenario most on here are chasing. The clusters at day 10 provide hope that tomorrow's 00z run may well be more amplified s Greenland day 10 compared to the mean. 

The eps (pre upgrade) have been known to skew towards the op when it heads in a different direction to previous runs. 

quite an unexpected development given the 12z gefs driving a mean upper trough through week 2 over w Europe. 

enough uncertainty on the 12z eps to allow for a swing back tomorrow to a lower euro anomoly mean without too many queries. 

Note the 12z gfsp drives a west based -NAO like the normal op. 

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Here you go, medium range 5-7 day not as good but towards day 10 they looks better...15 day could look much better.

Top one latest 

IMG_3883.PNG

IMG_3884.PNG

Edited by Ali1977

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16 minutes ago, radiohead said:

12Z GFS P is out now on Meteociel. 

And it's mental !!!!!!image.jpg

not sure what to say about this....

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13 minutes ago, shotski said:

And it's mental !!!!!!image.jpg

not sure what to say about this....

Great for Iceland, possibly Scotland too.

It is a west based -NAO set up

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7 minutes ago, karyo said:

Great for Iceland, possibly Scotland too.

It is a west based -NAO set up

Wouldn't it be just our luck :nea:

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13 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

GFS + 6 hours, no massive changes so far. 

Does one expect massive changes at that time-frame? lol

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6 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

 

Given the performance of the long range models so far I'm urging caution to believing the background signals! :D

However I will concede we are far from agreement on January prospects after the initial northerly.

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13 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

 

You must just be on the wrong side of things, although the operational ec 12z is warmer , the ensemble for De Bilt is much much much colder than the 0z with quite a few members going to-15 and even -20C

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Tad more amplification on GFS 18z - at least we aren't swinging the wrong way early on.

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2 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

You must just be on the wrong side of things, although the operational ec 12z is warmer , the ensemble for De Bilt is much much much colder than the 0z with quite a few members going to-15 and even -20C

That would be one run to -15 and none to -20 ??

as I posted earlier, probably reflective of more anticyclonic runs than the 00z suite and therefore less runs with a cyclonic onshore flow offf the North Sea. 

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Just now, bluearmy said:

Tad more amplification on GFS 18z - at least we aren't swinging the wrong way early on.

You do realise you've just jinxed this run!!!

Anyway, I compare run to run, ie GFS 12z to GFS 12z and ECM 00z to 00z. It's a much calmer way to see the evolving patterns, as opposed to getting hung up on nuances on every run at T120 plus!

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Forgive me if I'm wrong, but could our problems with the ECM actually start as early as T72/96hrs, with the placement of the 'supporting' low in the mid atlantic. 

 

 

Comparing the big three, ECM has the deepest and furtherest west of the lot, thus backing up what @Singularity proposed earlier about the 'over amplification' of the ECM, deeper low in a more S/SW position = more phasing with energy of the low running up greenland, and less so with the descending scandinavian low pressure - just a thought.

 

 

Screen Shot 2016-12-26 at 22.10.33.png

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Screen Shot 2016-12-26 at 22.10.26.png

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On 24/12/2016 at 12:15, Gustywind said:

 

Quote box keeps popping up despite me deleting the damn thing. Nice too see you guys and girls keeping the feet on the ground.

Ironic we are depending on a short wave to dilvery the goods.

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11 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

I think at this stage I would tend to discount the ECM- ( past 192 ) as it does has it moments-

GFS out to 108 - is another step of amplification - so thats 00z > 06z > 12z >18z all making pidgeon steps NW which is good-

hopefully the 138 will be like the 144 UKMO - every bit as likely! :)

I do apologies in advance, most probably, I am wrong. But have we not seen over the past 4-5 weeks that ECM has been consistently outplaying GFS? Why should we trust GFS again?

Thanks

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6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

That would be one run to -15 and none to -20 ??

as I posted earlier, probably reflective of more anticyclonic runs than the 00z suite and therefore less runs with a cyclonic onshore flow offf the North Sea. 

Cherrypicking this plume from south east, the cold members are more pronounced and intense compared to de Bilt but not there on 0z

 

 

Screenshot_20161226-231557.png

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