Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

[Stuie]

Can`t take away the fact the HP is not as West nor as sharp.

[Snowman.]

Compare today's 12z and yesterdays 12z the ecm has done well to continue 

[IDO]

1 minute ago, Stuie W said:

Can`t take away the fact the HP is not as West nor as sharp.

UKMO D6 charts in this type of setup are notoriously unreliable. Any reference to T144 UKMO output should be JFF.

The ECM moves towards the GFS as expected, and knowing the outcome of the GFS 12z that is positive.

[Matthew.]

ECM uppers at 168:

[Stuie]

Just now, IDO said:

UKMO D6 charts in this type of setup are notoriously unreliable. Any reference to T144 UKMO output should be JFF.

The ECM moves towards the GFS as expected, and knowing the outcome of the GFS 12z that is positive.

Definitive nudge East of the cold on this run though.

 

[Eskimo]

1 minute ago, Stuie W said:

Definitive nudge East of the cold on this run though.

 

Minuscule details, but the 12z does draw in colder uppers. 

[Stuie]

4 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

Minuscule details, but the 12z does draw in colder uppers. 

Yip this is true. If the NAO does go - around this time frame then we are certainly looking OK.

Edit: Biggest issue is that it`s T168.

Edited December 26, 2016 by Stuie W

[mulzy]

6 minutes ago, IDO said:

UKMO D6 charts in this type of setup are notoriously unreliable. Any reference to T144 UKMO output should be JFF.

The ECM moves towards the GFS as expected, and knowing the outcome of the GFS 12z that is positive.

Evidence for that?  THE UKMO model is at least on a par with the GFS if not slightly better (look at the verification scores).

[Ali1977]

Can't say it's a didsapointing ECM but it definitely isn't as dramatic as the earlier run. Lets see if FI still looks good, still think the 1st week is a taster for the second week of Jan 

[radiohead]

A shame the high is not further West on the ECM. A cold but dry spell out to T192 anyway.

Broadly speaking there is good agreement on all major models on the "building blocks" phase up to around 120-144. So that is positive. What happens beyond that will change in subsequent runs anyway...

[IDO]

4 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Evidence for that?  THE UKMO model is at least on a par with the GFS if not slightly better (look at the verification scores).

Many years of fails when heights are forecast towards Greenland. It is better in other patterns due to the GFS Atlantic bias but it nearly always over does it in that region.

 

[PersianPaladin]

The positioning of that high involves quite a small margin of error, and given the time-frame - expect quite a few runs before we can even have much in the way of confidence.The northerly is not what interests me at present, its the reloading pattern, the stability of the upper-wave pattern into Greenland, the extent of WAA, and all else besides. The pattern for that is yet to be made clear.

The ECM ensembles will be of great interest this evening.

 

 

Edited December 26, 2016 by PersianPaladin

[Stuie]

3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Can't say it's a didsapointing ECM but it definitely isn't as dramatic as the earlier run. Lets see if FI still looks good, still think the 1st week is a taster for the second week of Jan 

No Ali, no... the FI has been chased from the the start of Dec, we need reliable from here just to save sanity. 

[SMU]

lol - ECMs cross polar ridge didnt even make it past 12 hours... the ECM at 216 is awful..

The UK can never just move effortless into a cold spell- theres always drama.

Back the UKMO thats my punt for the day- someone save the day 6 12z charts...

[karyo]

2 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Actually looking possibly better long term.the high cell could be onthe pivot..for a more east/nnortheast indraw??!!

No this is going the wrong way with the high drifting towards France!

[Singularity]

In some ways we have too much amplification for our own good here; it forces the shortwave low to move SW before it's begun to interact with the Scandi trough and help keep the latter closer to hand.

Without that we'd have a better alignment and the loss of the split at +216 would not be a second kick in the nether regions.

There's still enough amplification across the U.S. to rebuild a poleward ridge in the mid-Atlantic over that well-south trough but things are frankly a bit of a mess. Not sure about the string of 6 weak areas of low pressure though, what's that all about?

[weatherguy]

Dire 216 ECM chart if we're honest.  Hopeful it's a mild outlier though, given today's output from the other models. 

[Summer Sun]

Looks like the high is sinking south by D9

Still a cold start to 2017 but not much in the way of snow

[A.J]

2 minutes ago, IDO said:

Many years of fails when heights are forecast towards Greenland. It is better in other patterns due to the GFS Atlantic bias but it nearly always over does it in that region.

 

lets just wait and see what what unfolds.....I for one won't suddenly 'diss' one particular run as across the board the outputs look far more conducive for colder and possibly snowier weather than the outputs did 48 hours ago.....Surely that's a good thing unless you're a tropical squirrel lover? (sorry Knocks )  

[tight isobar]

Yes karyo..

The cell simply pivot s then sinks...

Not terrific from 12zecm..but lot of resolution s to be picked at 

[Summer Sun]

A pretty big change from ECM at D10 compare to 12 hours ago

00z

12z

Giving its D10 tomorrow will be different again

[karyo]

2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

A pretty big change from ECM at D10 compare to 12 hours ago

00z

12z

Giving its D10 tomorrow will be different again

I actually find the 12z ECM charts questionable from 192 hours onwards. Notice how that low appears east of Japan and then intensifies rapidly in that area. By 240 hours it looks like a typhoon.

[london-snow]

29 minutes ago, london-snow said:

And there's me sipping my 8th beer thinking great and fantastic output over the last day but when are we going to go on a big let/come down?

 

May as well keep on drinking until new year..

ANY SPONSERS!

I'm back on it after the ecm (which ain't too bad) imo, the positioning of that high is crucial.

 

once again all all sponser a snow machine is a go just pm me with bank details ect or I'll put up a just giving page! & every little thing will be all white as Mr Marley sings..

 

 

[markw2680]

Blooming heck people, not every run will be exactly the same, expect changes from every run, some good some not so, the only thing that matters at this range is to get the high West and see where it goes from there nearer the time. That's my opinion anyway

[Methuselah]

Right then - one run of one model suggests that the HP will sink - it may well do? But, come on, eh? When was the last time we saw prospects like this?