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Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

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6 minutes ago, vizzy2004 said:

For me the first signal that a cold/snowy spell may verify is getting it to 144hrs on UKMO. Many phantom cold snaps are shown by ECM and GFS due to showing latter timeframes yet never make it within the range of UKMO without disappearing. The next step is to get it to NMM range (72hrs) which after that is when we can start to pinpoint roughly how cold/how much snow etc. 

Fingers crossed ECM can make it a full house for the cracking 12zs.

If we are still worrying about the first northerly in another three days then forget about it!

you don't want to be scratching around for upgrades to bring the northerly at T72 !

the question now seems to be will the models revert to a flatter pattern tomorrow?  Assuming ecm is amplified again later, another day of similar tomorrow is unlikely to be followed by a revision on Wednesday. The following question is then whether the ridge collapses across us or is reamplified via the eastern seaboard ridging 

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been here many times in the past just when we think we are on for a cold spell the ECM comes along and pulls the rug out from under our feet. i think if we get to the end of the 12z suite tomorrow in a similar place to now then we should be nailed on for a cold spell/period. and lets remember get the cold in first then worry about the snow because one wont happen without the other,

Edited by Guest
spellng...

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Blimey that UKMO 12z is a thing of beauty. The GFS isn't bad either ;)

T144 and, really, T120 because of the pattern change. A case could be made for saying it's T96 with the mid-Atlantic high pressure block forming. Although we've been here before and ended up with bitter disappointment, that's not too bad in terms of timeframe reliability.

Come on, ECM, don't screw up now :) 

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GFS is ok, prefer UKMO projection. I'd like to see the further westward progression of the Atlantic high in future runs for something more long lasting initially.

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The Weatherbell daily update is a coldies dream. The models look great and the pro's are onboard to. If these conditions verify then they will most certainly be a great belated Xmas pressie. Enjoy folks!!!!

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1 minute ago, More Snow said:

been here many times in the past just when we think we are on for a cold spell the ECM comes along and pulls the rug out from under our feet. i think if we get to the end of the 12z suite tomorrow in a similar place to now then we should be nailed on for a cold spell/period. and lets remember get the cold in first then worry about the snow becuase one wont happen without the other,

Much as I hate the cautious note, in these circumstances there's a lot of wisdom in that. T72 is really a gold standard for some reliability.

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As stated by previous posters we need a few runs to follow suit. Some sort of cold period is very possible. What we all want is a prolonged period of deep cold. Pretty positive the ECM will roll out similar to the other models. Hope you all had a great Christmas and a Happy new year would be a cold one. :cold-emoji:

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About 66% of the GEFS at D12 support the Atlantic Ridge to Greenland with a disrupting trough (to varying degrees over the UK): here

That is rather surprising at that range and suggests higher than average confidence for that long wave pattern for the medium term. Giving the mean upper temp profile as:

D12 upper meangens-21-0-288 (1).png D16: gens-21-0-372.png

The mean Alaskan/Pacific Ridge lasts 8 days on this run, up from 7 this morning and even on D16 the upper air mean is impressive^^^

GEM as close as I would expect at D10 bearing in mind its the GEM: 

gem-0-240 (5).png

Getting some clue on this suite to the D10 plus possibilities. I suspect that after the GFS has moved closer to the ECM during the day, that the ECM will edge closer to the latest GFS later

Edited by IDO

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Really looking forward to this ECm, especially the evolution in the 48hr timescale from T120 to T168. Still can`t get my head around how we get from chart 1 to chart 2 in that time frame....

ECH1-120.GIFECH1-168.GIF

Not being pessimistic but I still can`t get that infamous quote/chart on here out of my head either... "Get set, It`s coming"

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Aye guys: unless I'm absolutely mistaken, many of the recent runs are the best I've ever seen??:yahoo:

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18 minutes ago, Aaki Khan said:

Deserves Bit Of Sound Effect Doesnt It. :yahoo::drunk-emoji::drunk-emoji:

 

Excellent stuff. If it all comes off you'll be hailed director of the year or even decade

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And there's me sipping my 8th beer thinking great and fantastic output over the last day but when are we going to go on a big let/come down?

 

May as well keep on drinking until new year..

ANY SPONSERS!

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5 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Been racking my brains over this set-up because so often a northerly plunge gets modified north and east nearer the time

... but I think I have more confidence in this one. Why? Because of the little upper low to our SW. Its going to link up with low heights to our east and block out a last minute push from the Azores 

It's coming folks!!! BOOOOOOOOOOM!!!

 

Agreed, MWB...Unless something untoward (an out-of-season mid-Atlantic hurricane for example?) occurs, 2017 might be the best winter since 2013?? Assuming - of course - that current model-predictions will be correct!:D

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120hrs on ECM the high pressure in the Atlantic is arguably not as positively titled for us as on the UKMO at 120. Slightly better than GFS at that timeframe though in my opinion, bit more amplification. Suspect it won't be a whole lot different than the 00z ECM.

Edited by The Eagle

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UW144-21.GIF?26-18 gfs-0-144.png?12

That is an impressive mid-Atlantic ridge being shown by the models at just 6 days range.

Note the 'noses' of lower heights pointed SE from Canada and SW from Scandi. That indicates an Omega Block trying to establish.

So as much as we have the interesting signals for a second round of upstream amplification days 8-10, I can see how we could actually see enough of a 'nose' from the Canadian trough to undercut the first ridge and essentially produce results akin to the 00z ECM. That run had a very pronounced undercut indeed, resulting in a 1045mb+ mid-Atlantic ridge on day 7, which is rarely seen (super-high values tend to be over Greenland due to terrain effects).

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Middle of family fun and games but 144 on the ecm looks great! No stepdown 

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A colder period looks likely as move in to January with hard frosts and maybe some snow too it looks very cold in the south by looking at this. But it's all looking very interesting time for ECM time. :D:cold::cold::cold:

IMG_0105.PNG

IMG_0106.PNG

IMG_0107.PNG

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ECM 12z 144 hrs,all is well.                lol^^^

 

ECH101-144.GIF.png

Edited by Cloud 10

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