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Paul

Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

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Interesting HP inversion Wednesday 28th for Derby but I wonder what the one for the 2nd Jan would be:cold:

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Not as striking an anomaly as the previous run but it maintains the theme

cfsnh-4-1-2017.png?18 cfsnh-3-1-2017.png?18

I take more notice when the CFS produces successive runs of the same general idea. 

Edited by CreweCold

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Is that a 'spoiler shortwave' I see, in The North Sea, at T+384? If so, I wonder if it's an artefact caused by missing data?:reindeer-emoji:

Edited by Ed Stone

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We had THAT ECM the other year, here's to hoping THAT GFS doesn't go Pete Tong! (Wishful thinking at +300ish I know, but I've been on the sherry, let a man dream!)

h500slp.png

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13 minutes ago, Lamposangel delightcher said:

Gfs fantastic in f1 

 

Back to formula 1 again:D

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17 minutes ago, Lamposangel delightcher said:

Gfs fantastic in f1 

Ukmo looks fantastic at t144

Can ECM make at a hatrick 

imdeed.....let me know at t12...

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST

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18 minutes ago, Matthew Wilson said:

Interesting HP inversion Wednesday 28th for Derby but I wonder what the one for the 2nd Jan would be:cold:

 

How do you know there will be  one? ST around +5C and 850mb around -5C and taking these as very rough figures seems pretty close to an ELR. Unlikely to be any notable inversions involved. :)

Edited by knocker

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Merry christmas to all members ,great forum ,love the output last 24hrs or so ,lets hope we dont get a Partridge in a PEAR TREE ,We dont want any Pears thank you ,cheers to all posters ,:snowman-emoji::cold::yahoo:,right off to carve the turkey and when i come back a cracking run from ECM ,CHEERS 

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34 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

More missing data ............

Don't worry santa will bring Back the missing data:santa-emoji:and we will all be:drunk-emoji:when we see the models tommorow:cold:

 

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GFS is nearly always fantastic in deep FI whatever season it is. My head pops up when it's shows good stuff at T96. Despite all the improvements over the years T96 is still a good point to start at. Sometimes out T144 if the models aren't showing a miscovergence but that's still rare. 

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2 minutes ago, snowice said:

Don't worry santa will bring Back the missing data:santa-emoji:and we will all be:drunk-emoji:when we see the models tommorow:cold:

 

So far, wintry weather has been in F1..I mean FI..hope we can go from virtual reality to reality sometime in January:santa-emoji:

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GEFS are a bit underwhelming tbh. There are a few good runs in amongst but the trend to downgrade any northerly around day 8 is continuing. Still a few runs in amongst that are okay or good but I'd say that the opp is fairly representative.

Further out there is no particular trend. If a cold spell of any note does pop up (and no reason at the moment to think it will) days 8 and 9 are the place to look IMHO. Further out than that the models are usually selling snake oil in my experience.

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, bluearmy said:

The 06z gfsp makes more sense than the normal op in respect of the eps

interesting week 2

Aye no missing data in F1/FI on the 6z Parallel, the pattern is nailed :ball-santa-emoji::drunk-emoji:

h850t850eu.png

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19 minutes ago, knocker said:

How do you know there will be  one? ST around +5C and 850mb around -5C and taking these as very rough figures seems pretty close to an ELR. Unlikely to be any notable inversions involved. :)

knocker its Christmas can you not just let people have there dreams just this once....let's not worry about facts today 

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Oh I apologize in that case. I was actually just trying to be helpful as the subject of lapse rates has been mentioned recently

EDIT

You just beat me to it Nick

 

Edited by knocker

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1 minute ago, edo said:

knocker its Christmas can you not just let people have there dreams just this once....let's not worry about facts today 

It's model output :-) lots of threads for hopes and ramps.

Nothing mild showing, steady away. Also no prolonged cold. 

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At first glance ECM looks fairly similar to the GFS at day 8/9, high pressure slap bang over us... ONCE AGAIN!

 

Bah Humbug 

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2 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

At first glance ECM looks fairly similar to the GFS at day 8/9, high pressure slap bang over us... ONCE AGAIN!

 

Bah Humbug 

Yes, a far cry from yesterday's 12z!

A good freeze for eastern Europe though.

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4 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

At first glance ECM looks fairly similar to the GFS at day 8/9, high pressure slap bang over us... ONCE AGAIN!

 

Bah Humbug 

PV destroyed though

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4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

PV destroyed though

Cross polar ridging ? and euro slug salted. PV predominately to the NE of us so all good IMHO. image.jpg

Edited by shotski
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Poor afternoon runs - less ridging on the GFS / ECM means the cold never really gets in-

The Greenland high option was never on the table - however something from the NE / E was hopeful- 

At the very least the deep cold will be close by to the east.-

No more sign of any cross polar flow..

Edited by Steve Murr

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Must be just me then - I thought this afternoons runs were pretty good! We've had a lot lot worse!

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28 minutes ago, karyo said:

Yes, a far cry from yesterday's 12z!

A good freeze for eastern Europe though.

Sounds like case of Bah Hamburg? I'll get me coat!:santa-emoji:

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