Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

[Nick L]

I'm almost certain that the lack of data nugget wheeled out each year is pretty much a myth. The weather forecasting industry doesn't stop just because it's Christmas. I think a small amount of aircraft data is missing, but that's about it.

It's usually most mentioned when the models are not showing anything good

Edited December 25, 2016 by Nick L

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, Nick L said:

I'm almost certain that the lack of data nugget wheeled out each year is pretty much a myth. The weather forecasting industry doesn't stop just because it's Christmas. I think a small amount of aircraft data is missing, but that's about it.

It's usually most mentioned when the models are not showing anything good

It depends how many flights there are relative to normal, you can find out the merits of each run (I'm sure you know this) by way of data quality control charts, Recretos once posted them, I cant remember where but they tell you if its a red run or not due to lack of data, a red run is one that due to lack of data, can be trusted less than the norm.

[Cheshire Freeze]

CFS remains steadfast on a blocked Jan..

SLP mean

The notion of some Scandinavian height rises shouldn't be dismissed too hastily...

 

Merry Christmas all!

Edited December 25, 2016 by CreweCold

[Methuselah]

I vaguely recall that the 'missing data hypothesis' was very popular around Xmas 2012; in the wake of THAT ECM, desperation had ratcheted up to way above the norm?

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

CFS remains steadfast on a blocked Jan..

SLP mean

The notion of some Scandinavian height rises shouldn't be dismissed too hastily...

 

Merry Christmas all!

Looks great crewe, unfortunately the latest meto update is very underwhelming!! They are talking of high pressure to the SE of the UK which suggests to me the mid Atlantic high collapsing across us into Europe. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Looks great crewe, unfortunately the latest meto update is very underwhelming!! They are talking of high pressure to the SE of the UK which suggests to me the mid Atlantic high collapsing across us into Europe. 

Great! Get your snow boots out then!

[northwestsnow]

Just now, CreweCold said:

Great! Get your snow boots out then!

Hope so mate not a flake since mid November.Hopefully we will see upgrades in the coming days but that meto update coupled with fergies tweet about a tempory cold shot screams toppling mid atlantic high..

[Frosty.]

Merry Christmas all, hope you are all having a great day, it's the best day of the year in my opinion.. weatherwise it's been very grim so far this winter for coldies but there are signs in the latest model output for a colder early 2017..here's hoping it's a cold happy New year for coldies who..let's face it, deserve some luck for a change..surely even the mildest of mild rampers wouldn't begrudge coldies some entertainment would they? 

Edited December 25, 2016 by Frosty.

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Hope so mate not a flake since mid November.Hopefully we will see upgrades in the coming days but that meto update coupled with fergies tweet about a tempory cold shot screams toppling mid atlantic high..

It's an evolving situation IMO. Heights could easily be sheared in towards Scandi from the collapsing ridge- something which won't be picked up properly for a couple of days yet. As the ridge collapses, watch the angle of advection on the western limb of the HP cell- the further towards N this points, the better as the HP will maintain latitude easier.

 

[booferking]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Hope so mate not a flake since mid November.Hopefully we will see upgrades in the coming days but that meto update coupled with fergies tweet about a tempory cold shot screams toppling mid atlantic high..

Yea seen his tweet you missed one vital wording at least tempory colder phase to start 2017, so yes cold shot for how long they dont know just yet.

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, booferking said:

Yea seen his tweet you missed one vital wording at least tempory colder phase to start 2017, so yes cold shot for how long they dont know just yet.

Yes your right, hoping its prolonged, would be nice to hear from frgie, Gp etc .As i have a bad chest infection im resting at home watching the models so hoping for something like yesterdays ecm 12z would cheer me up no end.

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes your right, hoping its prolonged, would be nice to hear from frgie, Gp etc .As i have a bad chest infection im resting at home watching the models so hoping for something like yesterdays ecm 12z would cheer me up no end.

Get well soon, Lord knows coldies deserve a lucky break or two this winter, it's been as dreadful as last winter so far and today takes the prize as being the mushiest mild dross so far! The only way is up. 

[booferking]

7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes your right, hoping its prolonged, would be nice to hear from frgie, Gp etc .As i have a bad chest infection im resting at home watching the models so hoping for something like yesterdays ecm 12z would cheer me up no end.

Get well soon mate hopefully we get to see the charts we all deserve we are well overdue it..

[Captain Shortwave]

1 hour ago, Nick L said:

No

I'm almost certain that the lack of data nugget wheeled out each year is pretty much a myth. The weather forecasting industry doesn't stop just because it's Christmas. I think a small amount of aircraft data is missing, but that's about it.

It's usually most mentioned when the models are not showing anything good

That said how else can we explain why the GFS os the only model showing heights building between Scotland and Scandinavia whilst the other models disagree. It feels wrong

merry Christmas everyone and I hope the models have had what I've been drinking all day today haha.

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, Captain Shortwave said:

That said how else can we explain why the GFS os the only model showing heights building between Scotland and Scandinavia whilst the other models disagree. It feels wrong

merry Christmas everyone and I hope the models have had what I've been drinking all day today haha.

Yes but all the models use the same data, so if it was the data, then all the models and overwhelming ens support would be for a stonker, GFS is outside the eps and GEFS envelope.

[Frosty.]

6 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

 

 and I hope the models have had what I've been drinking all day today haha.

Yeah let's hope its lack of critical data day and the models start showing a deep freeze soon dammit!

Mo update stinks. As usual!

Edited December 25, 2016 by Frosty.

[Captain Shortwave]

 

9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes but all the models use the same data, so if it was the data, then all the models and overwhelming ens support would be for a stonker, GFS is outside the eps and GEFS envelope.

All tongue in cheek especially as the usually westerly progressive GFS is going for an easterly. Strangely the strong jet shown on the gfs allows the Atlantic ridge to sheer away and topple on top of low heights moving into southern Europe instead of the high being stronger and slowly sinking south east.

I am hopeful of an improvement into December. Hemispherically December wasn't too bad but we just happened to be in the wrong place rather than seeing a typical zonal picture. Hopefully we will see the deck reshuffled and have the longwave pattern positioned in a better place for the UK.

Edited December 25, 2016 by Captain Shortwave

[Methuselah]

34 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes your right, hoping its prolonged, would be nice to hear from frgie, Gp etc .As i have a bad chest infection im resting at home watching the models so hoping for something like yesterdays ecm 12z would cheer me up no end.

Well, with the notable exception of (soon to be hissing?) Sid, I doubt there'll be many around here who'll argue with you!

[bluearmy]

13 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Yeah let's hope its lack of critical data day and the models start showing a deep freeze soon dammit!

Mo update stinks. As usual!

Met office 30 dayer looks to be from the ec 46 which built a high anomoly to our east. Assume mogreps sees similar 

[Daniel*]

It has taken a while NAO has been in strongly positive phrase (with those zonal winds going above average) through much of December - however it is forecasted to take a plunge as we enter January. 

[johnholmes]

No

I'm almost certain that the lack of data nugget wheeled out each year is pretty much a myth. The weather forecasting industry doesn't stop just because it's Christmas. I think a small amount of aircraft data is missing, but that's about it.

It's usually most mentioned when the models are not showing anything good 

Well said Nick 12 years after I joined and this gets quoted every darn year IF there is no sign of cold. It is a myth, or an excuse by folk of cold wanting disposition.

Great I want snow as well but some objectivity folks?

Happy Christmas to everyone, enjoy Christmas don't get disheartened

 

[bluearmy]

The 06z gfsp makes more sense than the normal op in respect of the eps

interesting week 2

[bluearmy]

14 minutes ago, Changing Skies said:

It has taken a while NAO has been in strongly positive phrase (with those zonal winds going above average) through much of December - however it is forecasted to take a plunge as we enter January. 

That's the op ecm graph to day 10 - we sort of know what that will look like. The ens graph which you clearly also have access to would also show neg though not as starkly as that

[Daniel*]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

That's the op ecm graph to day 10 - we sort of know what that will look like. The ens graph which you clearly also have access to would also show neg though not as starkly as that

Oh bugger! Well unfortunately not the Twitter world has its perks...

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

That's the op ecm graph to day 10 - we sort of know what that will look like. The ens graph which you clearly also have access to would also show neg though not as starkly as that

While we are on the subject of who has access to what, how much is a weatherbell subscription please?