Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

That is a stonking chart at 288hrs,OMFG,split flow incoming on this run

This is quite an extreme set up compared to the last few weeks, I wonder (and hope) this could actually happen even earlier than New Year's Day, lets see what the ENS say. Could be gone tomorrow but that was prob the best run of the winter so far.

[snowray]

And lots of the white stuff evenly spread out for everyone to enjoy.

[damianslaw]

ECM and GFS both showing a trend for the upcoming ridge set to develop over the UK early next week, to advect westwards and not sink southwards into europe, end result a possible northerly for the New Year - but all conjecture at this range. However, its an emerging theme and I think there is mileage in it, the atlantic pattern is an amplified one, look at how quickly the ridge is set to build northwards come Boxing Day with consequent deep long wave trough anchoring down into scandi, crucially this will allow low heights to develop over SE europe, which will prevent the ridge from sinking SE quickly, hence a meridional pattern is likely to develop, the ridge is forecast to be a strong high pressure 245mb.

Lets see what tomorrow brings, but if the models hold onto this theme then quite likely a colder pattern could emerge come new year. In the meantime, a stormy 3 days ahead, very mild in the south, cooler at times in the north, before what looks a chilly settled period inbetween christmas and new year, with frost and fog becoming widespread, so feeling a bit more seasonal, and thankfully perhaps some decent weather for getting out and about.

 

[Ice Day]

2 minutes ago, SN0WM4N said:

The funny thing is that the -8 gets only as far south as Manchester. You really couldn't make up us southerners luck when it comes to getting cold. 

Not to worry as the detail is irrelevant this far out, the trend is our friend though.  Just the teeniest tweak and we're all in the game

[weatherguy]

Is nice. 

(Yes, I'm back after my rage-induced hibernation from model watching - finally some tangible interest in the medium rather than long term!)

[Banbury]

Lets wait and see where it sits in the ENS

[bigdog1]

Theres a lot of ramping going on tonight with these charts and models haven't we been led up this path already this winter.i think this will alter in the next two days I hope I am wrong about these excellent charts tonight  

 

Bigdog 1

[nick sussex]

Finally some outputs to give some hope to coldies. The possible salvation is delivered by first that amplifying US troughing and then the main PV lobe moving from its recent home over  Greenland towards Hudson Bay. This opens up a window of opportunity which I really hope can deliver something of interest. Indeed the first of those changes isn't deep in the depths of FI but starts at around T144hrs, I think there's less of an issue with that verifying. The PV relocation that far to the nw  however I'd be a bit more cautious with given the models habit of overplaying this at longer range.

Anyway at least something to get this thread buzzing and a chance that we could see the New Year start on a more promising note.

 

Edited December 22, 2016 by nick sussex

[BurwellWeatherWatch]

Great to see some interest again tonight after we were told that there could be nothing on offer until at least mid January. It may well be watered down if it happens at all but good to have 3 models singing from similar carol sheets. I think the GFS has some good form at picking out northerlies in the c 8/9 day range...?

[booferking]

Control & OP good agreement 192hr..

[ronan]

1 minute ago, bigdog1 said:

Theres a lot of ramping going on tonight with these charts and models haven't we been led up this path already this winter.i think this will alter in the next two days I hope I am wrong about these excellent charts tonight  

 

Bigdog 1

Yes but the models weren't singing off the same hymn sheet earlier this month but now we are seeing some cross model agreement. It's all about the trend and the building blocks which we are starting to see firm up. Yes it can still change drastically but we shall see.

[The Eagle]

5 minutes ago, bigdog1 said:

Theres a lot of ramping going on tonight with these charts and models haven't we been led up this path already this winter.i think this will alter in the next two days I hope I am wrong about these excellent charts tonight  

 

Bigdog 1

I'm 100% certain we have not had the opportunity to be lead up a path so far this winter to be honest...

Edited December 22, 2016 by The Eagle

[Jason M]

At 192 GEFS give some support. Control run has similarities with opp which is of particular interest at that range as when opp and control go together in the mid range its not the worst position to be in.

 

[chris55]

Nice to see the eye candy on the extended part of GFS 18z and at 240 it is supported to an extent by ECM, but as most will understand we need to gather some momentum with these very very early signs of interest regarding some colder weather. 

No garden paths even evident yet, we are not even at the gate lol!!

will await the mornings runs with interest but not expectation.

[bluearmy]

13 minutes ago, Banbury said:

Lets wait and see where it sits in the ENS

There have been members similar to this op on previous few suites 

it's not a huge surprise to see it. 

Seems a bit quick compared to ECM and gem - ironic that we manage to see it become west based  -NAO so quickly! 

[snowray]

I like it when things develop a bit quick though, very positive that the control is on board, as I was saying the other day the 18z has been known to spot new trends in the past on occasions. And this is not out at day 10+ for a change too.

[Nick F]

12z EPS NAO mean dipping slightly south of neutral (between 0 to -1) days 11-15, control more so to -2 NAO. 

The models have definitely seemed to have backed away from zonality in the medium to long range this week. Not so long ago we saw the endless zonality plugged by GFS and EC into the longer range, then they picked up on height rises over Europe and Scandi as they picked up on the signal for the flow to amplify out west, now we are seeing the retrogression of Euro +ve heights into the Altantic in the ENS with the possibility of a Nly in early Jan.

However, I think we now have a level of consistency from GEFS and EPS guidance re: ridge north over Gulf of Alaska which is likely a product of a Pacific wave train in action, maybe bolstered by tropical convection / Typhoon amplifying the flow of which the MJO is an influence too. The medium/long range output also suggesting +ve height anomaly developing over N Atlantic too.

Still have this niggling doubt with NWP modelling the MJO correctly though, as the neutral/weak MJO plots circulating in COD do not tie in with the hovemollers/200 CHI/OLR charts which show an active progression of MJO. It’s clear the models are factoring in the Pacific wave train which is forecast to amplify the flow over NE Pacific and now they have initialized and plotted MJO in 6 yesterday, we will perhaps see the models progress with more amplified patterns as a result, despite the MJO plots going into COD apart from GFS/GEFS.

Interesting times ahead as we enter January.

Edited December 22, 2016 by Nick F

[Jason M]

Much prefer the control run as more of a continental air mass = much colder!!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=300&mode=0&carte=0

Lovely chart

 

 

Edited December 22, 2016 by Jason M

[snowray]

[fergieweather]

46 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

So a very brief verdict - a dodgy start, but since 12th Dec the EC monthly has been fairly consistent on where ridging was going to occur for the period 26th Dec - 8th Jan, but underestimated the strength of the vortex. For the period 9th-15th Jan though, the signal appears lost for now, only Ian Ferguson can fill the gaps as a chart without anomalies could mean a split ensemble set or simply a signal for average conditions.

Interesting 2nd-8th Jan period with potential for ridging to pull back into the Atlantic - if it is on the right path.

 

Yes, consistent broad ideas into early Jan but no useful signal into extended range. MJO remains at very low orbit next 20 days, lending credence to ongoing UKMO view that it remains of no real predictive value into the forseeable for the UK.

[Allseasons-Si]

11 minutes ago, Jason M said:

Much prefer the control run as more of a continental air mass = much colder!!

One word!,Whooaaah!!!

can we get these charts wrapped up for Christmas please with a gold ribbon

Edited December 22, 2016 by Allseasons-si

[TEITS]

The runs this evening come as no surprise to me which is why I mentioned the Iceland SLP GEFS mean a few days ago, and why we should keep an eye on that. As I said a couple of days ago what is being suggested instinctively looks right to me whereas I never bought into all the hype during late November.

At least we now have some eye candy to follow which makes a nice change.

So the 12Z GEFS mean for Iceland was 1010mb. I fancy this will rise to 1040mb in around 7 days time.

[bluearmy]

6 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

Yes, consistent broad ideas into early Jan but no useful signal into extended range. MJO remains at very low orbit next 20 days, lending credence to ongoing UKMO view that it remains of no real predictive value into the forseeable for the UK.

So with enso fairly neutral and the MJO in the COD, we should probably be at the mercy of the propagating strengthening strat zonal flow in conjunction with the west QBO.  That means charts like we are seeing on the 12z and 18z are unlikely.  

will be interesting to see if the 00z output is in the same ball park.

[Mucka]

Well this evenings runs have certainly been more encouraging. Let's hope we can carry that through tomorrow and get some consistency.

Certainly ECM ensembles looking better than they have in a long while but a way to go yet.

[Interitus]

7 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

MJO remains at very low orbit next 20 days, lending credence to ongoing UKMO view that it remains of no real predictive value into the forseeable for the UK.

That won't stop the divination.