Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

[Allseasons-Si]

The gfs/p not having the ridge in the Atlantic at 240hrs ,but builds later on then topples

will gfs 18z show it?

[tight isobar]

@changing skies.

For point of compare I've purposely picked a northern hemispherical still' from 2010...and applied tonight s ecm for Impacted/ previous post purpose. 

My point being 'pin point' of exactions. and higlighting my point of Canadian lobr vortex! And the MASSIVE ramifications for inbedded' prolonged cold for our shores.as snapshot displays the vast differences between stonewall mid water block/ shutdown and an' as-now' erratic north eastern vortex! Where at the eastern most seaboard waa needs to be inevidence as does mid range ie greenland/Iceland. 

That being a stability for established blocking. ..

Not an eye blink ' atm modeled slammed vortex block shunted via Atlantic progression of the for mentioned' and as again a quickly miss-matched soon miss evolving" northerly incursion"...

But again its all evolving. ..and needs eyeing! 

Edited December 22, 2016 by tight isobar

[booferking]

Incoming  Always said west is best.

Edited December 22, 2016 by booferking

[blizzard81]

Oh my word, gfs 18z is only going same way as ecm 12z

[karlos1983]

30 minutes ago, Old MET Man said:

Thanks Paul.

No , if you trust your reading of the charts, slowly take time and  be honest with yourself,  you can see what the models indicate across the board. No extreme variants (quite windy up North for 36 hrs). Keeping it simple,  high pressure does return quickly  with high 850's , therefore not conductive of snow, therefor dry and faux cold weather after boxing day once the winds drop.  Up north, Northern England + , high level 300 m,  yes snow good probability in late Christmas evening - boxing day period. Scotland no probs. I'm so old , hard to post charts, perhaps younger members can do this for me. I'll try in future, sorry for any offence,

Seems a decent enough analogy to me, don't always need charts to get your point across. Cheers 

I'm liking the idea of heights rising to our north west, as the ecm shows, I'm thinking chances of a northerly outbreak early new year are increasing. 

 

[bluearmy]

Any early charts from the latest 46?

[Ice Day]

It's a slow old process on Metoeciel tonight, but heights heading up to Greenland at 192hrs.  Positive signs in the semi reliable.

[Ali1977]

Pub run special coming, following the GEM or even better

Edited December 22, 2016 by Ali1977

[snowray]

Indeed, looking good so far. Here she comes, Greeny high.

[Man With Beard]

EC46 tonight - here's its latest punt for next three weeks (Wks commencing 26th Dec, 2nd Jan and 9th Jan)

      

 

And for the sake of comparison, here's what the EC monthlies said about the same periods up till now

on 19th Dec it said this

    

on 15th Dec

    

on 12th Dec (wk commencing 9th Jan not available on this one)

  

on 8th Dec 

    

So a very brief verdict - a dodgy start, but since 12th Dec the EC monthly has been fairly consistent on where ridging was going to occur for the period 26th Dec - 8th Jan, but underestimated the strength of the vortex. For the period 9th-15th Jan though, the signal appears lost for now, only Ian Ferguson can fill the gaps as a chart without anomalies could mean a split ensemble set or simply a signal for average conditions.

Interesting 2nd-8th Jan period with potential for ridging to pull back into the Atlantic - if it is on the right path.

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Wow, the 18z has been on the Christmas tipple...

Best output of the evening at this point with heights building into Greenland.

[booferking]

You beauty...

[Ali1977]

Typical as I've mentioned before, I go away with work on the second for a few days and look what's coming - maybe!!

[Snowman.]

1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

EC46 tonight - here's its latest punt for next three weeks (Wks commencing 26th Dec, 2nd Jan and 9th Jan)

      

 

And for the sake of comparison, here's what the EC monthlies said about the same periods up till now

on 19th Dec it said this

    

on 15th Dec

    

on 12th Dec (wk commencing 9th Jan not available on this one)

  

on 8th Dec 

    

So a very brief verdict - a dodgy start, but since 12th Dec the EC monthly has been fairly consistent on where ridging was going to occur for the period 26th Dec - 8th Jan, but underestimated the strength of the vortex. For the period 9th-15th Jan though, the signal appears lost for now, only Ian Ferguson can fill the gaps as a chart without anomalies could mean a split ensemble set or simply a signal for average conditions.

Interesting 2nd-8th Jan period with potential for ridging to pull back into the Atlantic - if it is on the right path.

 

Looks to me mid-atlantic ridge before toppling over with the high once again over us. Although that is an extremely vague analysis as Wk3 looks rather like no strong signal. Let's see if we can get a mid-atlantic ridge first before moving on.

[booferking]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

Typical as I've mentioned before, I go away with work on the second for a few days and look what's coming - maybe!!

Pull a sickie.

[Snowman.]

2 hours ago, chris55 said:

 

Thats pure guesswork. Looks like a building high rather than a toppler to me!

But neither of us will ever no, as the ECM 12z for today will never go any further lol.

18z perfectly shows the difference between the two.

A sort of 'U' shaped high 

More of a 'n' shaped high.

 

[snowray]

Yes something of great beauty after all them crap runs. 

[Allseasons-Si]

Boom

so we now have ecm,gem and now the gfs 18z singing

 

[Snowman.]

Gah if you could shove that low over us 300 miles SE then we would be rolling in snow.

Nearly all the dots align yet those euro heights STILL persist! Glad it's so far in FI that it doesn't matter.

Edited December 22, 2016 by SN0WM4N

[tight isobar]

Stunning! !! 

Real greeny high the Canadian lobe plays ball and becomes limpit' down to mid usa..allowing bundles of waa to get stuck in proper..

And with aiding of the Russian lobe..

Hope this could be a serious trend.

[Ice Day]

Beautiful chart at 252 (the preceding charts weren't too shabby either).  Textbook Greeny high and the floodgates to the north are sprung open.  

Two nights in a row that the pub run has delivered something of note, but tonight's is around 100 hours earlier than last nights.  Early days, but I'm liking this current output a lot!

Edited December 22, 2016 by Ice Day

[Cheshire Freeze]

Haha Pacific ridge completes the hatchet job on the trop vortex deep in FI...if only!!

[Allseasons-Si]

That is a stonking chart at 288hrs,OMFG,split flow incoming on this run

[karlos1983]

Oh my days, that really is a thing of beauty. 

ive really missed the eye candy runs!!

[Snowman.]

3 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Beautiful chart at 252 (the preceding charts weren't too shabby either.  Textbook Greeny high and the floodgates to the north are sprung open.  

Two nights in a row that the pub run has delivered something of note, but tonight's is around 100 hours earlier than last nights.  Early days, but I'm liking this current output a lot!

The funny thing is that the -8 gets only as far south as Manchester. 

Edited December 22, 2016 by SN0WM4N