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Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
2 minutes ago, chris55 said:

Im rapidly in need of an anomaly chart.

ECM looking cold for th UK

Thats pure guesswork. Looks like a building high rather than a toppler to me!

But neither of us will ever no, as the ECM 12z for today will never go any further lol.

For what it's worth totally agree....the Vortex is to the west of Greenland and the low to the south West is angled also to move up the western side...that high will only Ridge north...alas, as you say...well never know.

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

No real change in terms of the theme as we move into the New year, at least some of the operations are going for option 2 (The colder north/north westerly option) as opposed to the flatter Azores ridge extension into southern Europe.

General evolution from the GEFs shows this nicely (Day 7/9/11)

gensnh-21-1-168.png   gensnh-21-1-216.png   gensnh-21-1-264.png

As discussed by many the mean upper ridge over Europe slowly wanes and is replaced by lower heights moving down from the north. At this moment the question is how much amplification can we get, ideally you would want to see that Atlantic ridge and Pacific ridge really punch into the Arctic which would result in the Canadian lobe becoming displaced further south and weakens, whilst at the same time you get the large swathe of low heights over Russia to align through Scandinavia into Europe ushering in a long drawn northerly flow. 

A long shot on that but at least the hope that we could get a polar maritime or even Arctic maritime blast as we move into 2017. Still be warned, the milder, cloudier westerly solution is still possible with wind and rain in the north.

 

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
1 minute ago, chris55 said:

 

Thats pure guesswork. Looks like a building high rather than a toppler to me!

But neither of us will ever no, as the ECM 12z for today will never go any further lol.

I am glad it doesn't cos we have enough with the gfs,para and cfs shenanigans :D

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
35 minutes ago, knocker said:

Let me make sure I'm picking this up right. Is it being claimed that Nok-Ten (current position and intensity below) is responsible for the amplification and Atlantic ridge on day ten of the ecm output? If so I feel I'm rapidly in need of sedation.

30W_gefs_latest.png

As far as I can see - I've not looked closely - the remnants over Indonesia are absorbed by a shortwave low around day five which then tracks NE and is absorbed into a trough near the Aleutians, which then becomes very deep and amplifies the downstream ridge-trough pattern.

Seems perfectly logical to me?

 

Edit: I've looked in more detail and it seems Nok-Ten may become slow-moving or stall out once not far west of the Philippines - as the forecast track above hints at - and it will then likely be swept northeast as a trough passes by (tropical systems tend to be drawn toward troughs if they're close enough). 

The question then is whether it moves over land and dissipates, or stays out at sea as a tropical or ex-tropical cyclone, in which case it may provide an adrenaline shot for a trough in 7/8 days time. 

ECM actually follows up the first deep storm with a second one; as the first one matures into a broad trough, a new area of low pressure swings into it and works with the steep thermal gradient set up by cold air advection down the west flank of the old system to 'bomb out'.

It's that first storm which sets up the propagation of an amplified wave pattern downstream to our sector by day 10.

 

Now that I think about it, Nok-Ten may be the reason why most models are seeing a retrograde motion to the MJO in the near future - but the thing is, they've shown such motion for the past two days as well, and it's not happened with the MJO signal, which leads me to suspect that the atmospheric anomalies associated with the MJO are actually independent of the cyclone, as I suppose they should be...? What do others think about that? TIA 

Edited by Singularity
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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
10 hours ago, Paul_1978 said:

What is "Scrussion" and "Sceuro" please? I never see these terms mentioned anywhere other than on this forum!

Scandy Russian trough, and Scandy Euro high. 

Edited by alexisj9
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
8 minutes ago, Ramp said:

Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

Well Ramp, if next weeks high leads to this, it will be worth the zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz:santa-emoji:

GEMOPEU12_240_1.png

ECMOPEU12_240_1.png

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

The ecm/gem show a half hearted block' but that being that atm.

Certainly no Atlantic door shutting and a suck it and see northerly incursion. That sadly in such scenario s will most likely be watered down nearer time...or at least diluted. 

On the other hand behavior of the by then lose cannon north eastern vortex lobe could evolve' more beneficially. 

But atm there more than a few stones in the road to be removed! !!

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

away from the amplified excitement of the ECM and gem ops, the eps continue their drift towards mid Atlantic ridge and broad scandi/w Russian/ e euro trough in the 10/15 day period. The envelope must contain solutions like the op - will be interesting to see if the London ens see more less cold options dropping out in that timescale. Remember that de bilt may not look so cold with a mean onshore flow off the North Sea 

the GEFS are still a broad church but again they show plenty of options with a big hemispheric amplification 

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

No big surprise this evening that the anomalies continue to be in good agreement in the 5-10 time frame

Aleutian ridge, fairly intense Canadian vortex (another lobe over Siberia plus the ecm has been inclined for days to have one on the Russian side) A flat zonal upper flow across the United States but much amplification in the Atlantic with the trough dipping a long way south and strong positive anomalies over the UK with the high cell just to the south of the UK. Ergo an upper flow from the SW (just light zephyrs in the south) so essentially we are looking at dry, settled weather in a relatively warm airmass. Of course the surface temps are liable to modification so the usual caveats apply. It's possible that the NW could maybe be susceptible to the odd unsettled outbreak.

610day.03.gifecm_eps_z500a_5d_nh_10.pnggefs_z500a_5d_nh_41.png

In the 10-15 time frame a suggestion of moving the Siberian vortex west to Russia, which has been the ecm inclination anyway, and some more pronounced Aleutian ridging into the Arctic and thus some retrogression of the HP west to be to the south west of the UK with much less amplification in the Atlantic. There is not wholesale aggreement on the details of this. So if this is anywhere near correct the upper flow should veer W/NW but still remaining mainly dry in the south with temps around average.

gefs_z500a_5d_nh_61.png814day.03.gif

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
48 minutes ago, Old MET Man said:

Here is my latest take on things. Windy till Sunday the 25st. Colder weather will follow  till new year (surface cold for 5 days, with mild 850's then a northerly wind which I know will bring quite cold uppers and snow showers to the north even low levels. No need to post outputs, its plain to see.

But as my good friend Sammy Rochevski once said. "The self-evident is obscure to most people."

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Something else of note on the extended eps is the Atlantic ridge is no longer an upper ridge from the south but it is a discreet circulation with the southern arm a bit stronger below it. The split flow off the eastern seaboard that bit more obvious. 

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

What i do like about those 500 hpa mean charts Knocker is the lowering of height's to the south of us to prop the hp up,they wasn't there on previous was they?

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
5 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

What i do like about those 500 hpa mean charts Knocker is the lowering of height's to the south of us to prop the hp up,they wasn't there on previous was they?

The eastern European trough has been edging W/SW and this may be the player to open the door to some colder air if the Russian vortex gets up a head of steam

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Just now, knocker said:

The eastern European trough has been edging W?SW and this may be the player to open the door to some colder air if the Russian vortex gets up a head of steam

Yes,noticed the westward shift in recent op's,more corrections that way would be nice,so which way do we go,easterly or northerly?

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

Yes,noticed the westward shift in recent op's,more corrections that way would be nice,so which way do we go,easterly or northerly?

I'll leave that to the 'Pros' :whistling:

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Posted
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Freezing fog, frost, snow, sunshine.
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl
8 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Odd for a first post, so certain, no charts to substantiate the prediction, and yet so many likes; desperation from some perhaps?

 

I don't know John - that's pretty good for a first post! Considering mine was probably something along the lines of "what's a GFS?" I don't think it's the most controversial of statements. ECM and GEM (even GFS to a certain extent) back up what was said to a degree, even if it was maybe said with a bit too much certainty! 

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
1 hour ago, Matthew Wilson said:

Yes also we need a good old cold front for a few cm's before the toppler topples:

IMG_0872.PNG

Not seen a chart like that that shows a half decent Northerly for what seems like years, mmm.

 

These charts seem to be more the norm these days, cold North Africa, cold air getting right across from Egypt to Morocco. I went to Egypt in Winter 20 years back and it was baking hot every day, It used to be Scandi that you went to for a white Christmas not Algiers, or Athens for that matter!:angry:

ECE0-192.png

ECE0-216.png

gfs-1-372.png

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
3 minutes ago, knocker said:

I'll leave that to the 'Pros' :whistling:

Alright Knocker get your blue crayons out,i know you want to,stop being stubborn:santa-emoji:

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset

Bit of jetstream FI....hmm off the scale turn the start of the year and who knows what that want`s to bring with it.

gfs-5-228.png?12

quite liking the direction it "may" take though due to potential HP blocking to the north.

gfs-5-384.png?12

Edited by Stuie W
typo
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Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore

I'm confused, someone has posted with a similar name to another member, and all of a sudden that's lead to about a dozen off topic posts. Not sure why to be totally honest, as there are plenty of similarly named people on here and it never warrants this sort of attention. 

So can we just get on with the discussion please? 

Edited by Paul
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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

The latest NOAA anomalies 6-10 and 8-14 show a very slight weterly drift for the centre of gravity of the +ve heights. Not sure if that is the first sign of a change in wavelength

NOAA

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

Perhaps EC-GFS will do the same in the morning?

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
1 hour ago, tight isobar said:

The ecm/gem show a half hearted block' but that being that atm.

Certainly no Atlantic door shutting and a suck it and see northerly incursion. That sadly in such scenario s will most likely be watered down nearer time...or at least diluted. 

On the other hand behavior of the by then lose cannon north eastern vortex lobe could evolve' more beneficially. 

But atm there more than a few stones in the road to be removed! !!

Eh half hearted block? That simply isn't true..

Atlantic looks locked down to me. Euro heights draining away to the west, best chart from ECM I've seen in a while since the update ECMWF received - it has markedly reduced its over amplification bias, in fact it's been quite notable, there's been a distinct lack of FI eye candy so an eyebrow is subtly raised. Tis most amplified upstream I've seen in a long time, polar vortex under attack? I hate the word potential but the ECM is stacked with the stuff. I see more than a subsequent northerly incursion following in with that quite prominent block to the west I would think the ridge would go further north what do you call it griceland high :p? Going forward I see cold would come from the E/NE. Cautious optimism from my amateur pov.

 image.pngimage.jpeg

Edited by Changing Skies
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
6 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

The latest NOAA anomalies 6-10 and 8-14 show a very slight weterly drift for the centre of gravity of the +ve heights. Not sure if that is the first sign of a change in wavelength

NOAA

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

Perhaps EC-GFS will do the same in the morning?

THAT is looking better in my book with like you say,+ve height's building/retrogressing westward into mid Atlantic allowing a NW or northerly flow  and -ve height's in the med,also of note that the Aleutian ridge pushes into the pole on the 8-14 dayer

all in all,not bad outputs today,let's hope that they continue and not be put on rinse and repeat of the last couple of weeks of stagnant dross.

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