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Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

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7 minutes ago, vizzy2004 said:

Whilst not a complete outlier the GFS OP is one of the coldest runs at this time frame.

graphe_ens3_tzm6.gif

Yes not an outlier with 4 other members showing this - in fact P12 gives the best solution with a few days of cold.

gens-12-1-240.png

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gens-12-1-312.png

gens-12-0-312.png

Even with some troughs giving some inland snow  - not just the wishbone effect

gens-12-2-288.png

 

Chances are pretty low for this kind of solution but obviously possible - we can but hope.

 

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gensnh-12-1-264.png

Yes please .This would do just fine

or this

gensnh-20-1-324.png

Edited by Banbury

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According to the GEFS 6z mean it's high pressure here we come, especially for the south of the uk which lasts well into the new year.

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Edited by Frosty.

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4 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

According to the GEFS 6z mean it's high pressure here we come, especially for the south of the uk which lasts well into the new year.

Which is fine if it gives frosts like the morning with a chilly day to follow

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3 minutes ago, Banbury said:

Which is fine if it gives frosts like the morning with a chilly day to follow

Well I think that is looking likely with a return of frost and fog which would be similar to late Nov / early Dec but it looks more changeable / unsettled across northern parts of the uk, especially the far northwest..still a chance of Atlantic height rises during Jan with a northerly incursion possible. 

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I note that come New Year the 06z is very closde to the 00Z parallel with a cold plunge from the north.   ECM rather underwhelming with very mild flow for the New Year with the slug back in place but looks that after that it would go similar to 06 z as we go into early Jan.

Merry Green Xmas folks unless you are at altitude up north.  See you in the New Year 

 

BFTP

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2 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Merry Green Xmas folks unless you are at altitude up north.  See you in the New Year 

 

BFTP

Merry green christmas to you too Fred, hopefully the models will look better for deep cold at some point during January.:drinks:

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1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

I'll second you on that one, Frosty - a very merry Christmas to all NW's model self-abusers. (I mean enthusiasts!):D

I doubt the words 'deep, crisp and even' will be featuring, however!:santa-emoji:

Well Ed, the alcohol will help numb the pain of yet another mild Christmas but I remain hopeful of a change in fortunes for long suffering snow starved coldies at some point in the new year.:drunk:

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2 hours ago, Bring Back1962-63 said:

Thank you for posting this Karlos - potentially good news and definitely one to watch and whilst I am no expert, I think I have found the answer to your question:

One of @Tamara's excellent posts back on 12th December (page 88 of this thread) provided a link to an official Tropical Cyclones website with data updated throughout the day. Here's the link: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/#   Then click on the "Storm Map" for an overview of storm activity. This shows two storms. Storm Nock-ten is predicted to briefly obtain a maximum strength of 100 knots (115 mph) in 48 hours (as you say) which places it as a "Category 3 Cyclone". It only reaches this "major storm" status very briefly as it is predicted to weaken to  Category 2 by the time it hits the Philippines and then (fortunately - to avoid major damage and loss of life) it will weaken further as it continues on its generally west-north-westerly track.  After viewing this, one can click on "West Pacific" (and sub-click "Tropical Discussion") below as well as the  orange map in the "Regional Real-Time products" (for some finer details) and you can obtain the latest bulletins and updates. Here is the relevant current bulletin (at the time of posting at 1045) and I show the key part in bold:

..."WXTLIST WMO=ABPW10 ABPW10 PGTW 220600 2016357 0526 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND /SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/220600Z-230600ZDEC2016// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/220152ZDEC2016// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: (1) AT 220000Z, TROPICAL STORM 30W (NOCK-TEN) WAS LOCATED NEAR 8.7N 139.1E, APPROXIMATELY 76 NM SOUTHEAST OF YAP, AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 220300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.// WXTLIST: done...."

So we can follow the actual current position to see if the predicted path and strengths come to fruition.

In her post Tamara, who was mainly referring to the hinderence of storm activity in the Indian Ccean (which occurred back in mid-December) says "significant tropical storm activity in the West Pacific is a good thing". I "think" this is in relation to a more favourable upper ridging and troughing pattern to assist the chances of greater HLB in our neck of the woods. With signs of the MJO coming to life towards the useful phases 7,8 and 1 in 7 to 10 days time, there is plenty to keep an eye on over the Christmas holiday. 

So, it is one to watch but over to our resident experts for their take on this and it would be useful to have a fuller explanation.

One final note. The naming and re-naming of storms in that part of the world can be confusing. We had "Typhoon Nock-ten back in 2011. The links to these historic storms (such as through Google) do not always make the date clear and one can think that it is current data! 

Even a hurricane couldn't get rid of this damm Euro high. The only sure way to get rid of it is Summer then we are guaranteed greenland and scandi highs a plenty lol. On a more serious note I think January will see a change in our fortunes. MERRY CHRISTMAS :santa-emoji: 

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40 minutes ago, snowangel32 said:

Even a hurricane couldn't get rid of this damm Euro high. The only sure way to get rid of it is Summer then we are guaranteed greenland and scandi highs a plenty lol. 

Yes it's almost as if the uk weather has a sick sense of humour isn't it:D

Anyway, at least with a 1040-1045mb anticyclone building in next week, most of the uk should see a return of frosty nights and cool, crisp days.:santa-emoji:

Edited by Frosty.

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On 12/20/2016 at 01:38, Mucka said:

There will be a window of opportunity as the pattern amplifies again end of Dec early Jan for blocking to take hold again.

If there is a signal that would lead to cold prospects then it is for a deep trough to drop through Scandinavia. maybe right into Central Eastern Europe early January.

That would displace the Azores high West somewhat and cause a strong pressure rise to our S/SW. How deep the trough digs and how far West it sets up will determine what type of blocking we get.

We are due a break so instead of a boring West based UK high with the jet riding over the top I quite fancy the Atlantic ridge scenario and a cold pattern setting up before end of first week of January.

ECM ensembles show a bit of split developing

ensemble-tt6-london.gif

I think the cold members from around 28th are a bit over zealous, probably have low pressure diving SE into the continent, but the ones falling away around New year are likely responding to trough to our NE digging South and might be onto something.

A bit far out yet so it will be a case of seeing if the signal strengthens as usual and if we can get an Atlantic ridge modeled within the 10 day output.

 

 

The models haven't really strengthened the signal for an Atlantic ridge at all since that post and a continuation of zonal looks most likely through the first week of Jan though they do seem fairly keen to have a trough setup as described rather than the Sceuro ridge/high we have seen a good deal of. If we can get low pressure into the continent then that would certainly help prospects but we need to see more amplification upstream to get some decent blocking and currently it doesn't look the form horse.

That said the split in ECM ensembles continue with a cluster going for something cooler/colder setting up. Actually 2 clusters perhaps, one from around the 2nd and the other later around the 5th but these may be showing cool/cold NW flow in response to trough without any upstream amplification.

ensemble-tt6-london.gif

There has been a run or ensemble member here and there that tries to build an Atlantic block but more often than not it is quickly overrun so any prominent blocking to our NW that would allow for a proper winter spell looks unlikely for first half of Jan but if the models firm up on lowering pressure across N/Central Europe then we could see some more promising output in a weeks time or so.

Otherwise it is hoping for pressure to lower to through N/Central Europe first week of Jan and hoping to pull in Arctic air further South, always with one eye on any attempts at blocking to our West.

Edited by Mucka

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Watching the GFS ooze out is like watching tennis pre-Andy Murray: That's three match points for Mr Plucky-Brit...Oh my goodness, what a time to serve 5 straight double-faults!:D 

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Latest snippet from Dr Cohen. If I'm interpreting the charts correctly the Polar Vortex reaches a peak in strength over the next 10 days, but there is also an increase in Wave Activity Flux (poleward heat flux). But Dr Cohen suggests "both still in play but we likely cross the Rubicon in mid-Jan".

Cohen tweet 22Dec PCH Anom.jpgCohen tweet 22Dec WaFz Anom.jpg

In a seperate tweet Dr Cohen suggests

"During the first week of Jan snowfall chances expand across the US and Europe. If you look closely snow right down to the Gulf of Mexico."

Cohen tweet 22Dec Snow depth.jpg

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7 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Watching the GFS ooze out is like watching tennis pre-Andy Murray: That's three match points for Mr Plucky-Brit...Oh my goodness, what a time to serve 5 straight double-faults!:D 

We need a true Andy Murray run, slam one into the back court, crowd goes wild. 

Looks like more of an undercut from the East towards the Mediterranean on this run, and is that a hint of a low forming way out to the SW? 

gfsnh-0-132.png?12

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3 minutes ago, Ravelin said:

We need a true Andy Murray run, slam one into the back court, crowd goes wild. 

Looks like more of an undercut from the East towards the Mediterranean on this run, and is that a hint of a low forming way out to the SW? 

gfsnh-0-132.png?12

But hopefully not the meteorological equivalent of a drop-shot that fails to go over the net!

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gfs-5-174.png?12

Just a few hundred miles north and its not a bad chart..... The correction north West happened before 90 hours BTW so further correction are still possible

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Something to cheer about for the coldies...

gemnh-0-216.png

Deep FI though!

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Well this one we want i hope  - lets see whatt brings January to us

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22 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:

Latest snippet from Dr Cohen. If I'm interpreting the charts correctly the Polar Vortex reaches a peak in strength over the next 10 days, but there is also an increase in Wave Activity Flux (poleward heat flux). But Dr Cohen suggests "both still in play but we likely cross the Rubicon in mid-Jan".

Cohen tweet 22Dec PCH Anom.jpgCohen tweet 22Dec WaFz Anom.jpg

In a seperate tweet Dr Cohen suggests

"During the first week of Jan snowfall chances expand across the US and Europe. If you look closely snow right down to the Gulf of Mexico."

Cohen tweet 22Dec Snow depth.jpg

Last week's wafz chart was a lot better, this is a big downgrade

 

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1 minute ago, mulzy said:

Something to cheer about for the coldies...

gemnh-0-216.png

Deep FI though!

Not that far out at 216 I thought! Raised an eyebrow! Then noticed it was Gem model.. so added another 500 hours onto it ;)

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Just now, TSNWK said:

Not that far out at 216 I thought! Raised an eyebrow! Then noticed it was Gem model.. so added another 500 hours onto it ;)

To be fair there has been a trend for a Northerly for the start of the New Year so would,nt count it out just yet.

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