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Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go


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6 minutes ago, feno13 said:

The question is what do the other 26 members show . 

And most importantly, do they show the end of the SCEuro high pressure. This has really stuffed our Turkey over the last few weeks!

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ECMWF Monthly goes off-piste versus it's deterministic brother into & particularly beyond Christmas. The +ve GPH/MSLP anomalies out to our NE merely intensify again towards end of month, then show

My retired colleague Ian McCaskill, RIP, would have relished discussing this Christmas Kerfuffle on-air with typical humour.  GFS 12z deterministic very similar in final reaches of run to Thursda

EC MONTHLY: again like last run. Blocked & dry anomalies developing 1st half Jan as heights move W to north of UK. Colder than avg anomalies southern UK 2nd week Jan (not seen that signal for a wh

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The drift towards some Atlantic amplification end week 2 continues on both the eps and GEFS in conjunction with the broad scrussian becoming sceuro trough backing slowly west. 

how that transpires on the ground away from a mean/anomoly is a decent envelope to begin the new year for coldies but it doesn't guarantee anything just yet. 

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4 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

And most importantly, do they show the end of the SCEuro high pressure. This has really stuffed our Turkey over the last few weeks!

The sceuro high is trending towards a sceuro trough for early 2017. whether that verifies or whether the euro heights hang on is another question! 

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What a difference 12 hours makes

19:00 Saturday

60-778UK.GIF?22-6

07:00 Sunday

72-778UK.GIF?22-6

Close to the mid teens in the SE corner early afternoon

78-778UK.GIF?22-6

Colder air filtering down from the north Sunday night

84-778UK.GIF?22-6

Edited by Summer Sun
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Gefs clusters at the end do show some Atlantic ridging with the largest cluster 35% showing a trough heading se into Europe so a lowering of heights over the continent .

17010612_2200_01.gif

however the rest are flatter with Euro heights and a more westerly flow off the Atlantic.

Link.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cslp&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

Edited by phil nw.
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1 minute ago, Banbury said:

gfsnh-0-222.png?6

Could have an early Northerly from this

The problem is still the darn Euro heights. They need to do one! Well outstayed it's welcome, which was about 24 hours, TOPS!

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2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Interesting,  WAA and Greeny high developing, can it hold I wonder.

IMG_3820.PNG

Those are some strong heights over Europe...still. I get the feeling that is going to be the bane of this winter...blocking where we don't want it!!

Edited by Chris K
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4 minutes ago, Chris K said:

Those are some strong heights over Europe...still. I get the feeling that is going to be the bane of this winter...blocking where we don't want it!!

No heights now 

IMG_3821.PNG

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On 12/22/2016 at 08:54, karlos1983 said:

Question:

Could the tropical storm (Nock-ten), soon to become typhoon, have an impact on what happens in our part of the world? I.e. Aid/hinder cold chances for Europe 

Due to make landfall in the Philippines on Christmas Day and into Boxing Day.

IMG_4632.PNG

(image taken from Hurricane Pro)

Thank you for posting this Karlos - potentially good news and definitely one to watch and whilst I am no expert, I think I have found the answer to your question:

One of @Tamara's excellent posts back on 12th December (page 88 of this thread) provided a link to an official Tropical Cyclones website with data updated throughout the day. Here's the link: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/#   Then click on the "Storm Map" for an overview of storm activity. This shows two storms. Storm Nock-ten is predicted to briefly obtain a maximum strength of 100 knots (115 mph) in 48 hours (as you say) which places it as a "Category 3 Cyclone". It only reaches this "major storm" status very briefly as it is predicted to weaken to  Category 2 by the time it hits the Philippines and then (fortunately - to avoid major damage and loss of life) it will weaken further as it continues on its generally west-north-westerly track.  After viewing this, one can click on "West Pacific" (and sub-click "Tropical Discussion") below as well as the  orange map in the "Regional Real-Time products" (for some finer details) and you can obtain the latest bulletins and updates. Here is the relevant current bulletin (at the time of posting at 1045) and I show the key part in bold:

..."WXTLIST WMO=ABPW10 ABPW10 PGTW 220600 2016357 0526 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND /SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/220600Z-230600ZDEC2016// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/220152ZDEC2016// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: (1) AT 220000Z, TROPICAL STORM 30W (NOCK-TEN) WAS LOCATED NEAR 8.7N 139.1E, APPROXIMATELY 76 NM SOUTHEAST OF YAP, AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 220300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.// WXTLIST: done...."

So we can follow the actual current position to see if the predicted path and strengths come to fruition.

In her post Tamara, who was mainly referring to the hinderence of storm activity in the Indian Ccean (which occurred back in mid-December) says "significant tropical storm activity in the West Pacific is a good thing". I "think" this is in relation to a more favourable upper ridging and troughing pattern which might assist the chances of greater HLB in our neck of the woods. With signs of the MJO coming to life towards the useful phases 7,8 and 1 in 7 to 10 days time, there is plenty to keep an eye on over the Christmas holiday. 

So, it is one to watch but over to our resident experts for their take on this and it would be useful to have a fuller explanation.

One final note. The naming and re-naming of storms in that part of the world can be confusing. We had "Typhoon Nock-ten back in 2011. The links to these historic storms (such as through Google) do not always make the date clear and one can think that it is current data! 

EDIT:  On reflection I was quite wrong to overemphasise a minor part of Tamara's mid-December post, to take it out of context and to link it to the current set-up. My understanding of the impacts of tropical storm activity on global weather patterns is very limited and I am not experienced enough to comment on this complex subject. Whether or not there is any kind of relationship is something only the experts can really comment on. It would never be my intention to ramp up expectations in this way or to mislead anyone. Looking at remarks made in several later posts, I did create rather an unwanted reaction. So, my sincere apologies to everyone for my error of judgement.

Edited by Guest
A apology
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Yes that low on 1st Jan just off the east US coast and SW of Greenland, barrels straight through Greenland rather than west of it, killing the fledgling high and sending the blocking back east and over the UK.....again! Need more amplitude and less energy in the northern arm of the jet.

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At day 7 with see differences with the position of the Euro high between GFS and ECM which will affect surface temperatures across the UK.

GFS has more of a SW flow with Atlantic trying to make inroads.

h850t850eu.png

This chart above is likely to give above average temperatures for the time of year.

ECM shows the high closer to the UK with winds more S/SE so despite the warm uppers the surface temperatures are likely to be cooler with risk of frost and fog.

ecmt850.168.png

Further into FI we see the GFS and the GFS Para singing from the same hymn sheet with regards to possible height rises in the Atlantic giving a brief cold shot around the New Year.

 

h850t850eu.pngh850t850eu.png

Whilst not a complete outlier the GFS OP is one of the coldest runs at this time frame.

graphe_ens3_tzm6.gif

The ECM does show a small rise in pressure in the Atlantic for around that time frame but nowhere near as good as the GFS and its hard to see how we could get a decent cold shot from there.

ecmt850.240.png

In an ideal world I would like to see ECM verifying at day 7 so we can have below average temperatures with frost and fog, and then across the GFS for an Atlantic ridge with a Northerly, however we live in the UK where if there's an opportunity for us to be warmer we always seem to get that option :p

Edited by vizzy2004
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