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Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Daytime temps will be very dependent on wind speed/direction, I think: a long-fetch southerly could produce some very mild afternoons (cloudiness permitting); then again, a seventy-two hours' long spell of continuous fog could allow for some cold nights and cold days??

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
On 12/20/2016 at 19:26, Stuie W said:

Had a gander at the old JS on the GFS. Is this a sign of how West HP could be setting up allowing some of that Eastern cold pool to migrate towards us?

gfs-5-192.png?12

Edit:

Latest ECM isn`t too far away from the mark either.

ECH1-192.GIF

Edit 2:

Concept being hopefully with a fairly active jet from N to S finally we can get some cold down into Europe. If we can pull a -NAO out of the hat then who knows? Some straw clutching but it`s a straw.

My post last night was about how hopefully the JS from N to S should/could get some of the cold pool down into Europe. This is small steps but model-wise is playing the game. It does morph into a cutoff low but small steps. Heights are building to the western Atlantic too, again from last nights post.

ECH1-192.GIF

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The anomalies this evening are still in good agreement regarding the 5-10 day pattern so confidence is pretty high on the day to day surface evolution for the period,

We have the Aleutian ridge with quite an intense Canadian vortex and a zonal upper flow across the United states. Quite different to the Atlantic where some quite significant amplification has taken place with the Greenland trough digging a fair way south and strong positive anomalies over the UK. Thus a meridional upper flow becoming south westerly over the UK and a relatively warm airmass,

So with the surface high liable to be around the south of the UK we are looking at a dry , stable period, perhaps the north west being the exception, with temps around average albeit with some diurnal variability, Best left to the det. runs nearer the time.

610day.03.gifecm_eps_z500a_5d_nh_11.pnggefs_z500a_5d_nh_41.png

Moving  into the 10-15 day period the pattern upstream shows no significant change Downstrean they are still in pretty good agreement on losing the amplification with a rather nondescript westerly flow and some ridging to the west from the Azores HP. (perhaps closer to the UK from NOAA) This would tend towards a N/S split over the UK with nothing too untoward in the woodshed and temps around average.

814day.03.gifgefs_z500a_5d_nh_61.png

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The slow retrogression of the Euro high anomalies continues on the eps. By day 15, the latest run has managed to clear Germany to be neutral. The scrussian upper trough slowly becoming a major feature. the percentages of backing the pattern west via an amplification off the eastern seaboard at some point later week 2 must be increasing.  The eps mean AO/NAO combo back to neutral by day 15. 

its a gentle drift at the moment and it seems to be GEFS supported in general. whether something comes along to accelerate it as per some of the GEFS members is on the table but pointless looking for deep cold just yet. 

At its current rate of retrogression it might even reach Greenland by May 1...Oh %$£*! Not another 2012!:shok:

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

GFS and ECM showing a sharper more defined long wave trough over west atlantic come early next week, which in turn results in a more pronounced push of the ridge north over the country, hence greater amplification. Could be a trend that is snatched away tomorrow, or the start of a new one, which will bode well for colder prospects as we enter the new year. Lets wait and see, what isn't being shown is a quick return to a flat zonal pattern, we remain in a highly amplified pattern despite the current more zonal picture. Next week is increasingly looking like a settled one and possibly becoming quite cool thanks to colder pooling at the surface, much will depend on cloud amounts.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

18z looks a lot more Atlantic influenced through next week, esp for the north west.Hoping its an outlier as it has a 1045 mb euro high stretching from southern spain to Poland! Ouch.

And its a LOT milder too..

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

18z looks a lot more Atlantic influenced through next week, esp for the north west.Hoping its an outlier as it has a 1045 mb euro high stretching from southern spain to Poland! Ouch.

And its a LOT milder too..

Quicker route to a northerly maybe block to the east is a waste of time.

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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
9 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

18z looks a lot more Atlantic influenced through next week, esp for the north west.Hoping its an outlier as it has a 1045 mb euro high stretching from southern spain to Poland! Ouch.

And its a LOT milder too..

on the model run it seems that is was short term pain long term gain but irl it will probably turn out short term pain, long term even more pain

 

gfsnh-0-228.png?18gfsnh-0-234.png?12

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
7 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

on the model run it seems that is was short term pain long term gain but irl it will probably turn out short term pain, long term even more pain

 

gfsnh-0-228.png?18gfsnh-0-234.png?12

Massive pain for the alpine ski resorts, not a good seasons beginning in many resorts. It won't be long before the "winter is over posts" - hopefully something happens in Jan that can flip this pattern on its head.

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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
7 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Massive pain for the alpine ski resorts, not a good seasons beginning in many resorts. It won't be long before the "winter is over posts" - hopefully something happens in Jan that can flip this pattern on its head.

i was refering to all the wide isobar lines on the 18z, seemed like the vortex was gone but a day later it was there again

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

And another stonker at T+384!

Sometimes, I wish that the GFS only went out to T+240!:D

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
8 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

And another stonker at T+384!

Sometimes, I wish that the GFS only went out to T+240!:D

Indeed but it was also pretty good at 348 which is in the semi reliable time frame isn't it!?!?!

gfsnh-0-348.png

 

gfsnh-0-384.png

Edited by Ice Day
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Posted
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
  • Weather Preferences: action weather
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
  • Please please please ,yes I know it's way out but ,oh sweet dreams ,very interesting model watching, but what chalk and cheese in one run ,all we need now is the ICING on the Cake ,cheers :cold::cold::drunk-emoji:

npsh500.png

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Posted
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, thunderstorms, warm summers not too hot.
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL
11 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

And another stonker at T+384!

Sometimes, I wish that the GFS only went out to T+240!:D

Indeed. The problem is also getting it into the reliable, easier said than done! hopefully this is the real deal & we are not being led down the garden path again!

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