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Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
    1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

    Unfortunately they show the euro slug persisting, this Euro high is a real bane and looking through the archives its a stand out in all the snowless winters of the late 80's etc, i really am of the opinion unless we see some SSW action, we are goosed...

    IMO unlikely we'll see SSW until later in the winter, given the PV is forecast to be as strong as last winter and with less wave activity propagating towards the pole too. Like I said in my medium-long range outlook last night in here, we'll have to rely on MJO forcing to shake-up the crappy pattern - which is looking increasingly swaying towards going into 8/1 in the NY - despite EC/EPS not buying into the idea. Models won't be showing these changes yet.

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    Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.

    The first one (GEFS Jan 2nd) shows a 'loosening' of the heights in SC Europe and a negative minor anomaly in Sth Europe... That's really important if we want to see cold patterns set in for our locality!

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    Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
    19 minutes ago, Nick F said:

    Or the Algerian Sahara?

    Joking aside, 00z GEFS 500 hPa mean / anomaly chart indicates +ve height anomaly to the west which maybe a feature to look out for over coming runs.

    gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_51.png

    00z EC and EPS heights and anomalies hint at this Atlantic ridging as early as  day 10 too

    ecmwf_z500a_nhem_11.pngecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_11.png

    Could start to see more amplification in the upper flow work through from Pacific/N America as models now hinting at Aleutian / Alaska ridge reforming - perhaps in response to dateline ridging from tropical/MJO forcing.

    Well said. We have been seeing some interesting options appear in GFS far FI on the op runs. This could be a pattern that will continue to appear as you say and I will be watching with interest. The nailed on zonality has already come loose so a shift in the ridging could very well happen.

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    Posted
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.

    Not really seeing it. Most of what is showing at 192-240 doesn't bring cold air to the UK, but keeps it locked up east. You could play the what if game after that and be thinking why cold air isn't far away, something can happen, but I don't think there is any trend in 192-240 to bring cold air to the UK. Just general FI stuff after that and yeah, pretty much any time in winter, you will also be able to find a few ensembles showing something cold.

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    13 minutes ago, jvenge said:

    Not really seeing it. Most of what is showing at 192-240 doesn't bring cold air to the UK, but keeps it locked up east. You could play the what if game after that and be thinking why cold air isn't far away, something can happen, but I don't think there is any trend in 192-240 to bring cold air to the UK. Just general FI stuff after that and yeah, pretty much any time in winter, you will also be able to find a few ensembles showing something cold.

     

    Probably right. The trend today from both ext ens is to retrograde the core of the sceuro block west somewhat into the east Atlantic whilst a scrussian trough begins to establish. that puts the jet onto a nw/se axis passing to our east and heading to our se and I suppose coldies would hope for a bit more amplification to our west to draw that troughing in se Europe west 

    there are definitely chinks of light in the tunnel. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
    Just now, bluearmy said:

     

    Probably right. The trend today from both ext ens is to retrograde the core of the sceuro block west somewhat into the east Atlantic whilst a scrussian trough begins to establish. that puts the jet onto a nw/se axis passing to our east and heading to our se and I suppose coldies would hope for a bit more amplification to our west to draw that troughing in se Europe west 

    there are definitely chinks of light in the tunnel. 

    Well, light in the end of the tunnel is that they show a few different ways to get something more seasonal and they aren't showing in great number mild, but at the caveat of being that ensembles are better used to spot a trend (say, 8 out of 20 going for an easterly). While they all show different things, I wouldn't personally be thinking it is anything too positive. Let's call it neutral :-) 

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    Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.

    If only for academic interest I do enjoy seeing the contrast across Europe with a synoptic set up like this. Stark differences in the upper air temps from the UK to Central and Eastern Europe.

     

    gfs-1-192 (1).png

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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
    9 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

    If only for academic interest I do enjoy seeing the contrast across Europe with a synoptic set up like this. Stark differences in the upper air temps from the UK to Central and Eastern Europe.

     

    gfs-1-192 (1).png

    Never seems to be the mirror opposite does it? lol

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    Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
    Just now, blizzard81 said:

    Never seems to be the mirror opposite does it? lol

    Ha ha, the UK does seem to be a warm air magnet in winter. How often do you see a map showing cold Eastern USA and Atlantic, warm UK and western Europe then cold again central and Eastern Europe?  :wallbash:

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    Posted
  • Location: North Somerset, UK
  • Location: North Somerset, UK

    You'll note the to-fro in GFS deterministic runs between mobility to blocking/anticyclonic bias in extended medium range. This reflects the bimodal clusters at same range in ECMWF (majority favour blocking, but only just). Recall the same dichotomy from a week or so back... and how protracted it became until models settled into favoured outcome? Watch for plenty of this 'A versus B' conundrum in near future...

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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
    5 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

    Ha ha, the UK does seem to be a warm air magnet in winter. How often do you see a map showing cold Eastern USA and Atlantic, warm UK and western Europe then cold again central and Eastern Europe?  :wallbash:

    Just about every winter? lol :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
    5 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

    You'll note the to-fro in GFS deterministic runs between mobility to blocking/anticyclonic bias in extended medium range. This reflects the bimodal clusters at same range in ECMWF (majority favour blocking, but only just). Recall the same dichotomy from a week or so back... and how protracted it became until models settled into favoured outcome? Watch for plenty of this 'A versus B' conundrum in near future...

    Hi Ian, I've had a look at the ensembles, is this split occurring around the new year period? Thats when I could see the appearance of bimodal clustering at least, but I may have it horribly wrong, rank amateur that I am.

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Beautiful spell on the Gfs 6z after the unsettled blip with 1035-1040 mb anticyclone building in with pleasant days and chilly nights.:D

    06_144_mslp500.png

    06_168_mslp500.png

    06_192_mslp500.png

    06_216_mslp500.png

    06_240_mslp500.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    GFS para shows Northwest Scotland getting the worst of the winds on Friday with gusts potentially topping 90mph

    ukwind.pngukwind.pngukwind.png

    Christmas eve is a calmer day

    ukwind.pngukwind.pngukwind.pngukwind.png

    Christmas day sees the windier conditions transfer to England and Wales though nothing unusual for the time of year

    ukwind.pngukwind.pngukwind.pngukwind.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
    6 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

    You'll note the to-fro in GFS deterministic runs between mobility to blocking/anticyclonic bias in extended medium range. This reflects the bimodal clusters at same range in ECMWF (majority favour blocking, but only just). Recall the same dichotomy from a week or so back... and how protracted it became until models settled into favoured outcome? Watch for plenty of this 'A versus B' conundrum in near future...

    It will probably end up the same result as now. Neither proper zonal or blocking, just boring. By boring, I expect something very similar to the gfs 06z with the block ending up just to our west but unable to retrogress. One of my worst winter nightmares - can't even get a frost out of that.

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    7 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

    It will probably end up the same result as now. Neither proper zonal or blocking, just boring. By boring, I expect something very similar to the gfs 06z with the block ending up just to our west but unable to retrogress. One of my worst winter nightmares - can't even get a frost out of that.

    Have I stumbled into the moaning thread?:D

    There is nothing we can do about what the models are showing, it is what it is so just accept it!

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    Posted
  • Location: North Somerset, UK
  • Location: North Somerset, UK
    13 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

    It will probably end up the same result as now. Neither proper zonal or blocking, just boring. By boring, I expect something very similar to the gfs 06z with the block ending up just to our west but unable to retrogress. One of my worst winter nightmares - can't even get a frost out of that.

    Latest DECIDER products lean to increased risk of NW'ly flow early into New Year; equal chances of high cell being centred over France or W of Ireland by that stage. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
    3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

    Have I stumbled into the moaning thread?:D

    There is nothing we can do about what the models are showing, it is what it is so just accept it!

    You are pushing at an open door there Frosty, I know that  :-P Just stating what I expect to happen, not particularly what the models are showing.

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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
    Just now, fergieweather said:

    Latest DECIDER products lean to increased risk of NW'ly flow early into New Year; equal chances of high cell being centred over France or W of Ireland by that stage. 

    Thank you for the updates Ian. They are an invaluable source of info for us. Really appreciate it. Any true Greeny highs showing up by any chance?

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    3 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

    Latest DECIDER products lean to increased risk of NW'ly flow early into New Year; equal chances of high cell being centred over France or W of Ireland by that stage. 

    Polar maritime would be nice:santa-emoji:

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
    2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

    Polar maritime would be nice:santa-emoji:

    Anything with a chance of some decent snow accumulation or even nice sharp frosts would be nice 

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
    5 minutes ago, Banbury said:

    gensnh-17-1-312.png

    That will do

    Hopefully this is what Ian Means by "High west of Ireland"... I suspect he means a bit closer to Ireland than that though !? 

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