Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

[stewfox]

Before we have the 10th winters over post on 19 dec lets see what the GFs 18z brings

Lets see how much PM we can get in the next week, rather then worry about March just yet.

[Snowman.]

It should be noted that even last winter there was chances. Just December 2015 largely skewed our perception on the overall winter.

There will be chances don't write the winter off yet. 

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, Newberryone said:

One can only admire your optimism Karl

Cheers..merry christmas

[Cleeve Hill]

16 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

 we still have Jan and Feb to look forward to..

Thats true.  

[Methuselah]

9 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Yep. We're in '70s Winters' territory. 09/10 and 10/11 were just 'blips' in an otherwise 20 year run of mild UK winters.

Sometimes football makes a good analogy (perhaps!) for the weather? How many times (since the time of the K-T boundary) have Spurs been probabilistically 'favoured' to win things? And, how many times have said 'things' failed to materialise?

Well, aren't probabilistic weather models similarly afflicted?

[Newberryone]

5 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Models all showing a resurgent atlantic, after a very long period of lacklustre strength, unusually long it has to be said, and it was only a matter of time it broke back, pity its just in time for christmas.. gales forecast, so the first proper windy spell of the winter. Hoping it won't be too windy, 1997, 1998 and 2013 were exceptionally wet windy christmas periods.

General theme is for a predominantly south west/westerly flow for the foreseeable bringing above average temperatures, though some brief polar maritime incursions will bring temps down closer to average in the north at times, and snow for high ground, perhaps modest levels at times with some patchy frost, so at least in the north feeling a bit more seasonal than recently. It is all very normal for the time of year, this is notorious for being an atlantic stormy period. Indeed, this will be the sixth wet windy mild atlantic dominated latter part to December in a row. 

Suspect this thread will turn into a frustrating one over the next few days, with the models showing continued similiar fayre. I'll be dipping in and out, and hoping the New Year brings something a bit different with a trend to colder good walking weather.

Unlike a few days back it's now looking doubtful that this resurgent atlantic will become the dominant player over a prolonged period as the return of the euro high next week is certain to divert the worst of those winter storms well away towards Iceland 

[Johnp]

20 minutes ago, mulzy said:

FWIW the CFS 45 dayer still suggests that the AO and NAO go mildly negative by the middle of January

Sorry...that's worth nothing ;-)

[Man With Beard]

Here goes with the EC32 500mb anomalies. 

Week 1

Week 2

Week 3

Week 4

 

[fergieweather]

14 minutes ago, Newberryone said:

Unlike a few days back it's now looking doubtful that this resurgent atlantic will become the dominant player over a prolonged period as the return of the euro high next week is certain to divert the worst of those winter storms well away towards Iceland 

Agreed: available evidence including this evening's ECMWF Monthly leans more towards +ve MSLP anomalies initially to our SE,  then migrating west to sit just west of and across the UK through early to mid-Jan, with accompanying below avg ppn anomalies and broadly +ve temp anomalies. Looks promisingly more settled versus the next few days; rather similar to last week's run but without any 'colder blocking' evident in the pattern, at least on face value. I've only had a cursory look at the output however: will examine all the 4 week stamps & clusters later, when more time available.

[Iceberg]

I don't agree with any of the long range models this year tbh. They are great when their is a major forcing factor in play. But in years where meso Synoptics are the driver they are chocolate teapot standard. 

I good example is the current set up. Our weather over the new year period is largely affected by a small low pressure system that develops in 4 days time off the coast of north California. It has major affects. 

Can the 3-4 week models pick these up? No chance. 

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

6 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Here goes with the EC32 500mb anomalies. 

Week 1

Week 2

Week 3

Week 4

 

That HP is literally the bane of our winter in a nutshell. It can't get sufficiently far enough N so that we have a chance of advecting some cold uppers and it won't be blasted far enough away so that we can let a fully zonal outlook take over. It's literally eating up our winter and providing us with nothing but gloom in the process. It is perhaps the worst winter scenario that any weather enthusiast could wish for. So....bland....

[booferking]

Just now, CreweCold said:

That HP is literally the bane of our winter in a nutshell. It can't get sufficiently far enough N so that we have a chance of advecting some cold uppers and it won't be blasted far enough away so that we can let a fully zonal outlook take over. It's literally eating up our winter and providing us with nothing but gloom in the process. It is perhaps the worst winter scenario that any weather enthusiast could wish for. So....bland....

Spot on all of the above.

[bluearmy]

Those ec 46 charts offer reasonable continuity from the last run but weeks three and four have lost any low Iberian anomoly so as has happened already this winter, no means of advecting any cold into any blocking pattern. 

winter likely to stay in se Europe/sw asia

[January Snowstorm]

The Christmas day storm still very evident on the 18z. It wouldn't take much of a shift to make it a more widespread and dangerous system.

@ Fergie do the met think this could be a major event or are you guys confident it will mainly affect far North? 

[LRD]

5 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

Agreed: available evidence including this evening's ECMWF Monthly leans more towards +ve MSLP anomalies initially to our SE,  then migrating west to sit just west of and across the UK through early to mid-Jan, with accompanying below avg ppn anomalies and broadly +ve temp anomalies. Looks promisingly more settled versus the next few days; rather similar to last week's run but without any 'colder blocking' evident in the pattern, at least on face value. I've only had a cursory look at the output however: will examine all the 4 week stamps & clusters later, when more time available.

Thanks Ian

Got to say that's a horrible update for someone like me who wants something resembling a winter. It sounds very 1988-89. Mild and dry. The worst winter weather possible. No cold but a lot of nothingness

I thought that positive anomalies to the west of the UK might give us colder temps though. Or is it HP sitting pathetically just to the west and SW and so tropical atlantic air is moving over the top of it?

[Iceberg]

The anomalies for weeks 3 and 4 are so weak being ens based that they are pretty meaningless. 

 

Back to a more sensible timeframe. Gfs 18z brings the nasty Christmas Day storm in full glory. Not good 

[LRD]

3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

That HP is literally the bane of our winter in a nutshell. It can't get sufficiently far enough N so that we have a chance of advecting some cold uppers and it won't be blasted far enough away so that we can let a fully zonal outlook take over. It's literally eating up our winter and providing us with nothing but gloom in the process. It is perhaps the worst winter scenario that any weather enthusiast could wish for. So....bland....

Completely agree

[law of averages]

It's hard to imagine...but winters already over, even before its only just started?? Strange

The LRF...supposed to be a front loaded winter like 2010 was but it's not and didn't the MET predict a mild and wet winter for 2010?? And now January to March being wrote off because Ian ( not having a go at Ian, in anyway ) said?? If glosea, ecm was wrong for a front loaded, why is it right for the rest of winter...weather can and will change, quicker than we can say a chart is right...10days away!! They can only give inkling to what it might be, no more than that

Sorry if off topic mods but it's got to be said...10 days, LRF...are as useful as a chocolate fire guard...

[booferking]

Lets watch the high build again but fail to an epic slug.

[Frosty.]

4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

That HP is literally the bane of our winter in a nutshell. It can't get sufficiently far enough N so that we have a chance of advecting some cold uppers and it won't be blasted far enough away so that we can let a fully zonal outlook take over. It's literally eating up our winter and providing us with nothing but gloom in the process. It is perhaps the worst winter scenario that any weather enthusiast could wish for. So....bland....

Moaning about it won't solve anything, we just have to hope the euro slug doesn't eat through January..a bit of luck is required!

[Cheshire Freeze]

3 minutes ago, booferking said:

Lets watch the high build again but fail to an epic slug.

Look where the high has its foundations...it's been the same for a while now. Not a chance that is changing unless something comes along to completely change the set up. The optimism that initially looked to be there on the run up to the new year has all but dissipated. There's no dressing this up anymore. I'm beginning to wonder whether lowland southern UK will actually see snow before Feb.

This shows how grim the situation is...look where the high is rooted to...yes, Africa

A hot summer pattern in winter....

Edited December 19, 2016 by CreweCold

[snowice]

2 minutes ago, booferking said:

Lets watch the high build again but fail to an epic slug.

That High is going around like a clock it is killing our winter 18z is rinse and repeat

[damianslaw]

3 minutes ago, LRD said:

Thanks Ian

Got to say that's a horrible update for someone like me who wants something resembling a winter. It sounds very 1988-89. Mild and dry. The worst winter weather possible. No cold but a lot of nothingness

I thought that positive anomalies to the west of the UK might give us colder temps though. Or is it HP sitting pathetically just to the west and SW and so tropical atlantic air is moving over the top of it?

Yes it does suggest that, with tropical maritime air wrapped around the northern flank of the high,  I remember March/April 1997 delivering such a pattern. It would most likely bring alot of dank cloudy weather, with limited clear spells, diminishing chances of frost, and unusually SW parts could be the coldest part of the country thanks to being less exposed to the atlantic drift. Lets see what happens.

[ghoneym]

13 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

The Christmas day storm still very evident on the 18z. It wouldn't take much of a shift to make it a more widespread and dangerous system.

@ Fergie do the met think this could be a major event or are you guys confident it will mainly affect far North? 

The 18Z has the depression tearing through central Scotland with 80 MPH + gusts, if this verifies then I would expect localised power cuts, travel disruption and camp stove dinners for a large population of Scotland, really not trying to be sensationalist but this Christmas day storm does not appear to be shifting. 

Edited December 19, 2016 by ghoneym
wrong time frame

[booferking]

Just now, CreweCold said:

Look where the high has its foundations...it's been the same for a while now. Not a chance that is changing unless something comes along to completely change the set up. The optimism that initially looked to be there on the run up to the new year has all but dissipated. There's no dressing this up anymore. I'm beginning to wonder whether lowland southern UK will actually see snow before Feb.

I thought the Atlantic powering up would reset the setup but i beginning to think i am so wrong very frustrating..