Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

[Banbury]

10 minutes ago, West is Best said:

Agreed. The UKMO at T144 gives some signs of hope regarding it retrogressing westward and actually even the GFS at the end of the run shows it doing the same. It will be interesting to see if the UKMO has been the first to spot a trend. If so then it's game on.

The Met mention possible HP to the West of the UK allowing possible colder outbreaks in early Jan, lets hope there is some trend showing

[gottolovethisweather]

16 minutes ago, West is Best said:

The Bartlett High

I don't trust the ECM at the moment. It has been so wayward. It's only finally picking up on the Christmas Eve low.

 

 

 

It sure does seem to struggle post D5 from what I've scrutinised of late, but I tend to only follow the 12zs of all NWP outputs and compare daily, which seems to provide more consistency in terms of understanding their evolution. 

Edited December 19, 2016 by gottolovethisweather

[gottolovethisweather]

31 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

As you were really high pressure to the SE low pressure to the NW leaving the UK in a southwesterly flow

Pleasant enough in any sunshine but always the chance of stubborn fog where / if skies clear then frosts would return

 

 

I don't mind a bit of stubborn fog, tends to make things feel more seasonal and can't often keep things chilly. It's the stubborn heights over Europe and due south of us I don't want in winter and those stubborn jet stream disturbances. Off to hunt darts action now, not chart action. 

Edited December 19, 2016 by gottolovethisweather

[mulzy]

10 minutes ago, West is Best said:

The Bartlett High

I don't trust the ECM at the moment. It has been so wayward. It's only finally picking up on the Christmas Eve low.

It's still the gold standard!

[chris55]

3 minutes ago, mulzy said:

It's still the gold standard!

Up to 144, yes. (as that chart is for up to 144)

But when was any op run worth its salt beyond this time frame anyway! Unless we see steadfast consistency ops/dets beyond 144 are not that helpful.

[gottolovethisweather]

6 minutes ago, mulzy said:

It's still the gold standard!

 

Always is, always will be.

[tinybill]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

 

evening  all  if  f1  right  the  uk will need to batten down till  the new year    looking  very windy  and  wet!!!

[blizzard81]

31 minutes ago, booferking said:

That sounds terrible high pressure to the south the slug is back just like last year.

Yep, latest ecm agrees with this. Another winter down the pan!

[igloo]

2 minutes ago, gottolovethisweather said:

Always is, always will be.

you mean the best of a bad bunch still way better than the billions spent on LRF

[gottolovethisweather]

52 minutes ago, igloo said:

you mean the best of a bad bunch still way better than the billions spent on LRF

 

 

 

Ah, we should all realise that we can second guess the weather, just as we cannot second guess Mother Nature. Much respect to those who put their collective heads above the parapet, though, at least it always gives us something to whine about, lol.

 

 

Edited December 19, 2016 by gottolovethisweather

[Gael_Force]

Is this the latest EC32 as it says issued today, 19th. Doesn't look very good on the temperature side as the negative anomalies have disappeared.

http://forest.jrc.ec.europa.eu/effis/applications/long-term-forecast/monthly-forecast/

[Chris.R]

One minute people are saying LRFs are gospel and so winter's over, next minute people are saying what's the point of spending money on LRFs  because they can't be trusted! Come on guys make your mind up!

Edited December 19, 2016 by Chris.R

[swfc]

It would seem now that musings over january starting or being cold-wintry are starting to ebb away .the pv and continued heigths to the south just wont give ground.such promise not long ago so i guess things could change.

[booferking]

2 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

Is this the latest EC32 as it says issued today, 19th. Doesn't look very good on the temperature side as the negative anomalies have disappeared.

http://forest.jrc.ec.europa.eu/effis/applications/long-term-forecast/monthly-forecast/

The last 3 charts have the slug wrote all over them...

[Summer Sun]

15 minutes ago, tinybill said:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

 

evening  all  if  f1  right  the  uk will need to batten down till  the new year    looking  very windy  and  wet!!!

 

For any new members on here

It is not F1 - that's motor racing

It is FI - please don't be confused between the two

[Chris.R]

3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

For any new members on here

It is not F1 - that's motor racing

It is FI - please don't be confused between the two

Yep. Don't want people to be looking for Lewis Hamilton at the end of the GFS 18Z.  I know its bad but not that bad lol. 

Edited December 19, 2016 by Chris.R

[blizzard81]

4 minutes ago, booferking said:

The last 3 charts have the slug wrote all over them...

Fourth week from monday 12th dec 2016? lol

 

[booferking]

1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

Fourth week from monday 12th dec 2016? lol

 

Haha seen that its a Glitchy screwed run winters back

[iand61]

3 hours ago, West is Best said:

Anyone on here old enough to remember this New Year storm at the start of January 1976? The current models remind me of that set up.

 

Damage was extensive https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gale_of_January_1976

 

Remember it well and some of the worst damage I've ever seen from gales here.

our row of houses lost hundreds of tiles along with most of the garden fencing and our shed ended up in small pieces almost 50 yards away from where we originally put it

a wild and scary night but I'd take it again if we had the summer that followed

[Man With Beard]

9 minutes ago, booferking said:

The last 3 charts have the slug wrote all over them...

No that is today, it says 19th on the chart.

Ummmm ... wet Scandi mountains but very dry in the Atlantic too - a touch of NW on those charts? Bearing in mind we are only fractionally above average in the UK. With a euro slug you'd expect more of southern Europe to be below average, as anywhere with stable HP will get cold this time of year.

Just guessing ... we'll find out more later when the Icelandic charts update and of course considerably more if Ian F comes on here later.

[Methuselah]

Well, if the extended range of the GFS shows anything, it's that, at T+384, numerical weather-forecasting models are not yet quite up to the job; they're getting better, yes, but there's still along way to go...

The Law of Diminishing Returns is - I think - very pertinent when applied to computational advances; just because the MetO or NASA (or the Daily Express!) can double their computational power doesn't mean that their forecasts' accuracy-time will noticeably increase as a result?

Personally, I think it'll be many years before 15-Day forecasts become properly viable, if they ever do; mathematical chaos might be a bugger to get round, no matter how elaborate the calculator is?

I'm hoping that some of our resident mathematicians might come to my aid, here. I think I need it!

[Daniel*]

This lacklustre output output is starting to grate me. 

very mild Christmas Day for southern England bathed in 8C upper air temps on EC hopefully it's a mild outlier a real kick in the stomach, no wonder Steve M has legged it   

calling a winter over when it's really just began is a shockingly bad thing to do..but hey ho

GFS best of the bunch it wants to dampen down the PV with height rises over the pole perhaps seeing the return of -AO nothing dramatic. A fair number of GEFS perbs build heights over the vicinity of the U.K. or to the west of UK by early 2017 there's one stonker - so early indications suggest January will start settled. 

[igloo]

19 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

One minute people are saying LRFs are gospel and so winter's over, next minute people are saying what's the point of spending money on LRFs  because they can't be trusted! Come on guys make your mind up!

dont be fooled there money making some people believe there accurate some dont they have performed badly this season so far for sure

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 12z mean indicates high pressure for central and southern uk early in the new year with night frosts and fog but more changeable / unsettled further north with the more unsettled weather creeping south later..temps don't look mild though.

Edited December 19, 2016 by Frosty.

[Methuselah]

4 minutes ago, igloo said:

dont be fooled there money making some people believe there accurate some dont they have performed badly this season so far for sure

I'm not at all sure it's a matter of badly-performing models, igloo, as I've yet to hear a single example - outside of the tabloids - of anyone stating categorically that either 'it will' or 'it won't'?

It wasn't the fault of GloSea that many individuals chose to take the then probabilistic preference for blocking, as being a coded way of forecasting ice, snow and blizzards now, was it?

IMO, we have had the blocking but, unfortunately for us, it's not been in our preferred location. That's all...