Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

[booferking]

Christmas day storm still in Atlantic pretty much same position as the 06z run but deeper not good..

Edited December 19, 2016 by booferking

[Sir Saats a lot]

2 minutes ago, snowice said:

Moving further North every run!hold on to your hat North Scotland

Looks Like we are going to get it up in Shetland.

[snowice]

Just now, booferking said:

Christmas day storm still in Atlantic pretty much same as the 06z run but deeper not good..

ukmo has it as as shallower feature!

[Abyss]

Further South on UKMO. Track and intensity far from nailed down yet

Edited December 19, 2016 by Abyss

[Methuselah]

6 minutes ago, West is Best said:

Anyone on here old enough to remember this New Year storm at the start of January 1976? The current models remind me of that set up.

 

Damage was extensive https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gale_of_January_1976

 

Aye, I went to see Tommy, in Leicester Square - had to spend the entire night in Euston station...For reasons unbeknown to anyone but them, the Fuzz kept waking everyone up!

Twas some storm!  

[West is Best]

Just now, Ed Stone said:

Aye, I went to see Tommy, in Leicester Square - had to spend the entire night in Euston station...For reasons unbeknown to anyone but them, the Fuzz kept waking everyone up!

Twas some storm!  

Aye it was. I remember sitting with my family and my dad suddenly said, 'shhh what's that roaring noise?' It was the wind going off the scale. It snapped some of our trees in half and took down a concrete wall.

There's something about winter storms. Could be a lively few days coming up.

p.s. Great to see a Spurs fan  

[March]

1 hour ago, West is Best said:

In the first place it's too early to say what 'will' be happening and in the second place there is absolutely nothing whatsoever 'very mild' about those T850 hPa upper air temps I posted up. With the -5C dam consistently over large swathes of the country on the 24th, 25th and 26th it will also feel bitterly cold in the biting north-westerly wind, which will often be at gale force on exposed parts.

There's a curious phenomenon about weather. When we're sitting under one set of conditions we easily forget what it's like when it changes. The end of this week is going to bring a bit of a shock to the system.

He said very mild but not extreme, given that it could likely be 9-11C in places, how on earth can you be so hung up on that? 

[West is Best]

6 minutes ago, March said:

very mild 

-5C 850hPa upper pushing much further south on this run on Christmas Eve, now touching much of the country.

 

Going to need to wrap up warm in those winds for any last minute shopping. Brrrrr.

Edited December 19, 2016 by West is Best

[West is Best]

And some parts of the north, especially high ground, are in for a snowy Christmas Eve if that comes off. 

 

[West is Best]

This continues to look like a very nasty Christmas Day storm in parts of Scotland. Not just these storm force winds but also blizzards, especially over high ground:

 

[West is Best]

It's interesting to see that the 12z UKMO displaces the high at T144 much further west than GFS. The latter, with it's slug aka Bartlett tendency, then has knock on effects for subsequent developments. The UKMO actually has huge potential from here:

 

GFS a lot less so:

 

All eyes on the ECM which has had a dreadful few days and also on the FAX charts now.

[Geordiesnow]

Good too see the potential of 2 deep low pressure systems heading our way which will at least start to spice this fairly dour December weather although the way this December has gone so far, it would not surprise me if that pesky Euro high deflects the strongest of the winds away from the UK as it did on the GFS 12Z run.

Alot of uncertainty with the first low though as it has not formed yet and its one of those where more runs will be needed to determine just where it will end up, it could be quite a nasty low if all the ingriedients come right but on the other hand, it could end up being a more shallower feature which would be dissapointing.

I really disagree with the "very mild" comments, still uncertain just how much polar air will follow on from these low pressure systems but the chances of some lowland snowfall across the North and West is very much possible at some point during xmas day although any significant snow is very unlikely apart from the highlands.

[Ben Lewis]

3 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

Good too see the potential of 2 deep low pressure systems heading our way which will at least start to spice this fairly dour December weather although the way this December has gone so far, it would not surprise me if that pesky Euro high deflects the strongest of the winds away from the UK as it did on the GFS 12Z run.

Alot of uncertainty with the first low though as it has not formed yet and its one of those where more runs will be needed to determine just where it will end up, it could be quite a nasty low if all the ingriedients come right but on the other hand, it could end up being a more shallower feature which would be dissapointing.

I really disagree with the "very mild" comments, still uncertain just how much polar air will follow on from these low pressure systems but the chances of some lowland snowfall across the North and West is very much possible at some point during xmas day although any significant snow is very unlikely apart from the highlands.

Surely that would be a good thing. As per the GFS 12z run, I hope the models continue to throw it further and further north.

Not sure I would let my preferences of curing weather boredom overrule poor folk's Christmas in the North, being written off by strong winds and potential flooding.

[knocker]

42 minutes ago, West is Best said:

Anyone on here old enough to remember this New Year storm at the start of January 1976? The current models remind me of that set up.

 

 

D

 

I think I was on Ocean Station Juliete at the time.

[MR EXTREMES]

awful run from gfs really starting to look like a vortex dominated winter.

if u live in the north things a little better if wintry weather is what your looking for.

but by god its awful and i really think theres little chance of jan being much better with little or no trop disruption i think even the long rage models projection for january looks like being led up the garden path.

although last winter with strong vortex the north did pretty well.

awful cet for down ere in the south way above average for december down here.

although id expect a massive uptick in the arctic refreeze after its rather awful start to winter greenland iceland pretty chilly to.

[Geordiesnow]

2 minutes ago, Ben Lewis said:

Surely that would be a good thing. As per the GFS 12z run, I hope the models continue to throw it further and further north.

Not sure I would let my preferences of curing weather boredom overrule poor folk's Christmas in the North, being written off by strong winds and potential flooding.

Sorry but I'm a weather enthusiast and whilst I don't wish any damage on anyone's homes/business etc, I do think the potential for 2 deep low pressure systems heading our way quite exciting. If we going to take your stance then we better not wish for anymore thunderstorms in summer because of the risks of flooding that the torrential rain will bring.

I actually don't see flooding being an issue in the outlook as it has been quite a dry Autumn and we are looking at any persistant rain moving through quite quickly because of the strong winds so its a question just how windy its going to be. The potential for severe gales quite widely is there but seen it before where the models do indeed have them crossing between Shetland and Iceland taking away the strongest gusts away from the majority of the UK.

[Summer Sun]

It's certainly looking rather windy on Sunday especially so for the northern half of the UK

Snow remains possible in the north and west but you'll need to be well up elevation wise

Edited December 19, 2016 by Summer Sun

[West is Best]

Chin up Mr Extremes. Three 'awfuls' is a bit too many awfuls for the interesting shakeup ahead. Look to the UKMO westward retrogression of the HP at T144 for signs of hope. It'll be interesting to see if that is picked up in other control runs as it's something upstream signals are also indicating. That way serious winter lies.

I also wonder if ECM is going to buck its ideas up. It's currently hardly worthy of inclusion in the Big Three models.

[Ben Lewis]

4 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

Sorry but I'm a weather enthusiast and whilst I don't wish any damage on anyone's homes/business etc, I do think the potential for 2 deep low pressure systems heading our way quite exciting. If we going to take your stance then we better not wish for anymore thunderstorms in summer because of the risks of flooding that the torrential rain will bring.

I actually don't see flooding being an issue in the outlook as it has been quite a dry Autumn and we are looking at any persistant rain moving through quite quickly because of the strong winds so its a question just how windy its going to be. The potential for severe gales quite widely is there but seen it before where the models do indeed have them crossing between Shetland and Iceland taking away the strongest gusts away from the majority of the UK.

Oh don't get me wrong, I'm with you on the weather extremes, I just prefer the abnormal extremes like a snowstorm or severe thunderstorms.

A Windy and Wet day does nothing for me (Standard UK winter is it not)  especially when it has the potential to ruins someone's Christmas - Be it any type of severe weather.

[IDO]

11 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

Good too see the potential of 2 deep low pressure systems heading our way which will at least start to spice this fairly dour December weather although the way this December has gone so far, it would not surprise me if that pesky Euro high deflects the strongest of the winds away from the UK as it did on the GFS 12Z run.

Alot of uncertainty with the first low though as it has not formed yet and its one of those where more runs will be needed to determine just where it will end up, it could be quite a nasty low if all the ingriedients come right but on the other hand, it could end up being a more shallower feature which would be dissapointing.

I really disagree with the "very mild" comments, still uncertain just how much polar air will follow on from these low pressure systems but the chances of some lowland snowfall across the North and West is very much possible at some point during xmas day although any significant snow is very unlikely apart from the highlands.

Christmas Day>>>The 2m temps will be very mild and during daylight hours the winds will be coming from SW bearing westerly:

So unless I am missing something, for most of the UK population a mild and cloudy day with the rain not arriving till later in the day and as for the NW'lies, I am not even sure the south even get a whiff of those? So although the temps will not feel as mild as they show there is nothing that will make us feel "bitter"!

As for snowfall on high ground, to be expected in setups like this, but the window is less than 24 hours before much milder upper air floods the country with a warm sector moving in from the SW late Boxing Day for 48 hours, then rinse and repeat.

All fairly standard December weather and I suppose we are making more of it than it is because this December has been so mild.

[swfc]

On Friday, December 16, 2016 at 21:09, fergieweather said:

Plenty of interest starting to emerge in the spread of extended ECMWF clusters. Let's see if these nascent signs of pattern change into Jan (as per EC Monthly & GloSea5) continue to gather pace now in the ensembles from operational centres.

 

On Friday, December 16, 2016 at 21:09, fergieweather said:

Plenty of interest starting to emerge in the spread of extended ECMWF clusters. Let's see if these nascent signs of pattern change into Jan (as per EC Monthly & GloSea5) continue to gather pace now in the ensembles from operational centres.

hows  things shaping up atm ian???

[Summer Sun]

The chances of seeing snow are certainly limited on this run you'll need to be well up in the north these are the lowest temps

And the max temps

As for rain most areas should see some drier interludes at times away fro NW Scotland

After boxing day last year this looks much better

Edited December 19, 2016 by Summer Sun

[Methuselah]

Not too many GFS straws to clutch there, I am afraid...Over to you, Frosty?

[johnholmes]

7 minutes ago, IDO said:

Christmas Day>>>The 2m temps will be very mild and during daylight hours the winds will be coming from SW bearing westerly:

So unless I am missing something, for most of the UK population a mild and cloudy day with the rain not arriving till later in the day and as for the NW'lies, I am not even sure the south even get a whiff of those? So although the temps will not feel as mild as they show there is nothing that will make us feel "bitter"!

As for snowfall on high ground, to be expected in setups like this, but the window is less than 24 hours before much milder upper air floods the country with a warm sector moving in from the SW late Boxing Day for 48 hours, then rinse and repeat.

All fairly standard December weather and I suppose we are making more of it than it is because this December has been so mild.

So why headline a post and make the comments you have (in your normal manner) when the post to me seems quite an objective one?

 

Edited December 19, 2016 by johnholmes

[Ravelin]

Way out at D10 but the PV not looking as organised. Of course, one chunk of what is left is sitting where we'd rather it didn't.