Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

[West is Best]

13 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

No I think the models are well!  

Half expect them to be showing the storms running further south tonight to maintain the inconsistency....

There's some science behind that. The models tend to go a bit haywire when there's pattern change. We're about to enter a period of Atlantic surge after a very blocked spell. I also think this kind of weather reboot, where there's a huge amount of energy, leads to even greater levels of model divergence. I expect to see some fairly outlandish charts appearing soon, especially in FI.

[Frosty.]

5 minutes ago, West is Best said:

I was responding to the comment that Christmas will be 'very mild.'

According to the current models it's simply not true.

It will be mildish, the devil will be in the detail but it certainly won't be a cold christmas period with spells of wet and windy weather racing in off the atlantic.

[West is Best]

Just now, Frosty. said:

It will be mildish, the devil will be in the detail but it certainly won't be a cold christmas period with spells of wet and windy weather racing in off the atlantic.

In the first place it's too early to say what 'will' be happening and in the second place there is absolutely nothing whatsoever 'very mild' about those T850 hPa upper air temps I posted up. With the -5C dam consistently over large swathes of the country on the 24th, 25th and 26th it will also feel bitterly cold in the biting north-westerly wind, which will often be at gale force on exposed parts.

There's a curious phenomenon about weather. When we're sitting under one set of conditions we easily forget what it's like when it changes. The end of this week is going to bring a bit of a shock to the system.

[Frosty.]

10 minutes ago, booferking said:

Okay so the 528 dam line is now mild we have no chance of snow now for the rest of days, Get the bbq out lads she going to be a warm one

You misunderstood me, I said overall it will average out mildish with some mild days and nights and colder interludes..nothing too get excited about though.

Edited December 19, 2016 by Frosty.

[Daniel*]

37 minutes ago, Chris K said:

Yes, but until we start seeing these charts entering a reliable time-frame with cross-model support rather than T+384 op run, it's just eye candy.

Although I would not wish disruption or damage on anyone, there is at least some interest in the outputs this week with potential stormy weather sweeping in. I would imagine this will be the main focus until details become more clear on track/depth and positioning.

Not quite the point I'm getting at here, the latter frames of GFS may be more than it merely going off on one, for a very long time in FI - I've seen absoloutely nada amplification very flat, actually in recent days it has tried to bring ridging to the W, but I believe it has been dropped and picked up on again. So for it to do suddenly and quite boldly it raises an eyebrow purely on an observational note. The EC monthly/ glosea5 has received a lot of scrutiny lately despite that without the support of those products - have we ever seen a cold spell kick off on the basis of a 'rogue' op run - I don't think so. The GFS 06hrs does side along with what Ian F shared with, which makes us very fortunate indeed. I've see it happen before GFS picking up a 'signal' and it carries on with it very much a rarity but I've seen it. Therefore I would not discredit what the evolution GFS 06hrs shows. It is model discussion so who gives a hoot, if someone wants to post about day 3 or day 10.  

Edited December 19, 2016 by Changing Skies

[Seasonality]

Just for a bit of fun, it is worth mentioning that winter isn't over. In fact by one measure it hasn't even begun! The astronomical winter begins on 21 December 2016 and ends on 19 March 2017. Winter doesn't start for two days! 

[Chris K]

10 minutes ago, Changing Skies said:

Not quite the point I'm getting at here, the latter frames of GFS may be more than merely than it going off on one, for a very long time in FI - I've seen absoloutely nada amplification very flat, actually in recent days it has tried to bring ridging to the W, but I believe it has been dropped and picked up on again. So for it to do suddenly and quite boldly it raises an eyebrow purely on a observational note. The EC monthly/ glosea5 has received a lot of scrutiny lately despite that without the support of those products - have we ever seen a cold spell kick off on the basis of a 'rogue' op run - I don't think so. The GFS 06hrs does side along with what Ian F shared with, which makes us very fortunate indeed. I've see it happen before GFS picking up a 'signal' and it carries on with it very much a rarity but I've seen it. Therefore I would not discredit what the evolution GFS 06hrs shows. It is model discussion so who gives a hoot, if someone wants to post about day 3 or day 10.  

Of course and totally agree no matter what day it is, nothing against discussing the outputs. That's what the thread is for!  I get your point, I just like throwing in caveats as to how likely it is to verify. To be honest I have not really noticed deep FI charts picking out signals that disappear and then reappear closer to the time. I just count that as normal model divergence and output changes until we get more agreement in the ensembles etc. I wasn't suggesting that you were wrong to point this out though. Fingers crossed we see some improvement soon anyway.

Edited December 19, 2016 by Chris K

[Dennis]

any like an scandi High? This is an HIGH (well formed) by CFS

Pls click on the image

 

 

 

Edited December 19, 2016 by Dennis

[NeilN]

15 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Just for a bit of fun, it is worth mentioning that winter isn't over. In fact by one measure it hasn't even begun! The astronomical winter begins on 21 December 2016 and ends on 19 March 2017. Winter doesn't start for two days! 

This is how I measure winter - This does feel like a 1980s one though. 

[Ravelin]

1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

That's OTT, any hill snow will quickly melt as a mild incursion comes through, one after the other.

In the relatively reliable time span the MetO forecast for Glenshee Ski Centre (which I'm pretty positive is for the lowest part of the ski area, at the summit of the road) has the temperature only rarely and briefly breaking 0C from tomorrow through to Sunday. Any snow that falls on the Scottish hills this week is either likely to stick, or be blown off.

Edited December 19, 2016 by Ravelin

[Yarmy]

2 minutes ago, Dennis said:

any like an scandi High? This is an HIGH (well formed) by CFS

 

 

It still shows above average heights in mainland Europe though, so any high pressure would likely be tethered to the south (sceuro ridge) and westwards cold air advection inhibited.  

[Frosty.]

3 minutes ago, nn2013 said:

This is how I measure winter - This does feel like a 1980s one though. 

There were plenty of mild winters in the 1980s

Anyhoo, change is afoot with a spell of unsettled Atlantic driven weather on the way for the second half of this week which could continue on and off into next week.

[NeilN]

Just now, Frosty. said:

There were plenty of mild winters in the 1980s

Anyhoo, change is afoot with a spell of unsettled Atlantic driven weather on the way for the second half of this week which could continue on and off into next week.

That's true - I mean I've heard a few people on here and my own Mum say this is like December 1985/6 - now to have an epic January and February would be the dream. The storm forecast, any hope of it dying down so it's not that bad or still severe? 

[Seasonality]

1 minute ago, nn2013 said:

That's true - I mean I've heard a few people on here and my own Mum say this is like December 1985/6 - now to have an epic January and February would be the dream. The storm forecast, any hope of it dying down so it's not that bad or still severe? 

Yes, we're still a while out, time left for positive corrections.

[NeilN]

Just now, Seasonality said:

Yes, we're still a while out, time left for positive corrections.

Thank you - I just hope for everybody's sake it isn't anything too dramatic. Bad enough last year with the floods. 

[Summer Sun]

 

[winterof79]

It may have already been touted but the GEFS are picking up on the METO further outlook scenario of High pressure trying to form to the West of the UK

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=384

[Paul White.]

4 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

 

It's quite funny looking at the yellows and oranges on the above chart how they can paint a picture of mildsville. Yet on closer impection i would love to live in a country that has above average temperatures of -12. Perfect for roasting those horse chestnuts on xmas day 

[karlos1983]

That is some storm!! 

955mb 

Edited December 19, 2016 by karlos1983

[West is Best]

Anyone on here old enough to remember this New Year storm at the start of January 1976? The current models remind me of that set up.

 

Damage was extensive https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gale_of_January_1976

 

Edited December 19, 2016 by West is Best

[Summer Sun]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

That is some storm!! 

955mb 

 

Warnings are out from the met office of that one in western Scotland

[frosty ground]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

That is some storm!! 

955mb 

2 Days before the Christmas day storm..... (If it still happens)

A disturbed period of weather 

[snowice]

2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

That is some storm!! 

955mb 

Moving further North every run!hold on to your hat North Scotland

[Yarmy]

10 minutes ago, Paul White. said:

It's quite funny looking at the yellows and oranges on the above chart how they can paint a picture of mildsville. Yet on closer impection i would love to live in a country that has above average temperatures of -12. Perfect for roasting those horse chestnuts on xmas day 

Aren't Horse Chestnuts poisonous? 

Storm is deeper, but slightly further N on this run. 

 

Quite worrying for those in Scotland.

 

 

[West is Best]

When was the last time 2 x sub 960mb storms passed the UK in the space of 48 hrs?

It's quite unusual to have two such deep storms in quick succession?