Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

[stewfox]

9 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

Surely you mean the weather has been the worst in 14 years? Unless you believe in the models creating the weather? :-)

That storm is pretty much solid across all models, postage stamps, GEFS etc. Worrying that it could destroy a lot of people's Christmas!

Well the GFS 18z has it further north and less of a influence.

Some -5c 850 over Scotland 30/12

But re snowman update its a worse run as PM air is more mixed out  pre and post xmas. supporting picture attached.

 

Edited December 17, 2016 by stewfox

[cyclonic happiness]

7 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

Surely you mean the weather has been the worst in 14 years? Unless you believe in the models creating the weather? :-)

That storm is pretty much solid across all models, postage stamps, GEFS etc. Worrying that it could destroy a lot of people's Christmas!

No, I mean the models never used to flip flop about as much as they do nowadays. I'm not stupid enough to think the models actually make the weather *tuts and walks off in disgust* 

[cyclonic happiness]

8 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

That's good news as most of us don't want a storm disrupting the busy christmas period but I am hoping for some cold zonality for the first time this winter, which is what some of the models have shown today.

Like the bloke before says, it doesn't matter what we want :-D

 

 

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, Dennis said:

Next year GFS18z

More jam tomorrow and must be said that chart is watery jam and not even raspberry!

[Frosty.]

Still some snow on the Gfs 18z..

[Banbury]

11 minutes ago, karyo said:

Southwesterlies start at abut 70 hours from now and then continue until the depths of FI in the 18z!

It looks like we will be stuck in this for a while.

Not overly warm though

[bradymk]

12z Parallel, about the only one that is actually worth viewing tonight....

 

[stewfox]

2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Still some snow on the Gfs 18z..

 

Yes there is clutch of straw as we do see some -5c air for a brief period

[Daniel*]

Risk of snow on the big day itself on GFS 18hrs down south.

Shortwave tracking along the channel, uplands of the West Country could see some snow, Mendips for instance with that parcel of -3C uppers, very very marginal. 

Edited December 17, 2016 by Changing Skies

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, bradythemole said:

12z Parallel, about the only one that is actually worth viewing tonight....

 

It's a shame it has been proven to be about as reliable as the cfs daily!

[jethro]

1 minute ago, Changing Skies said:

Risk of snow on the big day itself on GFS 18hrs down south.

Shortwave tracking along the channel, uplands of the West Country could see some snow, Mendips for instance with that parcel of -3C uppers, very marginal. 

Dear Santa....I've been very, very good....honest!

[Trom]

4 hours ago, MattHugo said:

 

2) This change to a more zonal regime in this winter of 'wild cards' does not mean that's it until the end of February, a case of realising just how quickly the weather can change across the UK. The cold Nov was always unlikely to be followed by a cold Dec and this could have been one of the main oversights when it came to all the predictions of a cold and blocked Dec. What were the chances of a near or below average CET 2 months running, always unlikely these days and Nov really was a cold month for various parts of the UK at various stages and times.

With regards to your second point Matt if you had factored that in it would be classic behavioural bias of the gambler's fallacy.  I lecture a bit of behavioural finance and find the model thread to be rife with it.

For those of you who have a little interest in this area wikipedia has a great summary of the cognitive biases know to date https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases

Kind of model related so I hope the mods will let it slide by

[karlos1983]

Well the path is clear then 

welcome back Shannon 

[Summer Sun]

Still question marks over Xmas day and how windy it might be

18z keeps the worst out west 

Before moving across more parts during the evening 

[radiohead]

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

Just watching the GFS 0z roll out and I think I want to throw up!

This kind of chart for Christmas Day shows how much of a winter killer this set up is with low pressure anchored to the North of the UK and high pressure in Eastern Europe creating long draw South Westerlies from the Azores up to Northern Scandinavia!

Even the cold pools from the Atlantic just disintegrate as soon as they reach the UK!  Where did it all go so wrong (for us coldies)?!!

Merry Christmas anyway!  

Edited December 18, 2016 by Kentish Snowman

[northwestsnow]

17 minutes ago, Kentish Snowman said:

Just watching the GFS 0z roll out and I think I want to throw up!

This kind of chart for Christmas Day shows how much of a winter killer this set up is with low pressure anchored to the North of the UK and high pressure in Eastern Europe creating long draw South Westerlies from the Azores up to Northern Scandinavia!

Even the cold pools from the Atlantic just disintegrate as soon as they reach the UK!  Where did it all go so wrong (for us coldies)?!!

Merry Christmas anyway!  

Yes, a very very disturbed Gfs this morning, i really hope things can get downgraded a bit in the coming days as there is potential for some very damaging gusts.The raging +NAO shows absolutely no sign of abaiting with the euro high and its evil partner in crime the PV resolutely refusing to leave the stage despite the boos and hisses from the terraces...

[knocker]

The GEFs anomalies continue to indicate a pattern change which initially involves the high pressure to the east decaying and moving further east thus less amplification in our part of the world and a slide into a strong upper westerly flow and with an 160Kt jet emanating from NE North America this is not good as it opens the door completely to systems tracking east, This transition is not evident until the latter part of the next ten days so the det runs over the next couple of days are more crucial than ever for the evolving detail.

The Azores ridges NE tomorrow but is soon suppressed by the upper trough and surface fronts traverse the UK Tuesday/Weds bringing  some wet weather to most.

From here a brief respite with some transient ridging before the very unsettled period starts and by 00z on the 24th there is a deep low just south of Iceland with associated troughs traversing the UK

From this point the upper low/trough intensifies and a new surface depression tracks rapidly north east, it's this one that we have to keep an eye on, bringing much rain (snow on high ground in the north) and very strong winds with the potential of very damaging gusts.

Post this weekend another very deep depression tracks north east to be 937mb between Iceland and Scotland by Weds. Best left as no doubt there will adjustments to the evolution during the week and we need to see what the ecm is saying.

Edited December 18, 2016 by knocker

[Iceaxecrampon]

00Z

25th Pennine Festive conditions at 1200ft asl 

[Polar Maritime]

Yes as Knocker points out above some very disruptive weather model'd for the big day, As the Jet cranks up firing deep Lows in off the Atlantic. Rain for the majority, But possible blizzards over high ground above 400m in the North and down to Sea level in the Highlands with gales/severe gales. Some interest at least for weather enthusiast.

Then two days later..

 

Edited December 18, 2016 by Polar Maritime

[KTtom]

This 'storm' from gfs seems to be a recurring theme for Christmas and surely deserves more attention than its getting from the Met?  I know gfs has a habit of overdoing these lows but that one really would be a bit concerning let alone the fact it's forecast for Christmas  day.

The rest of the output is as bad as it's been all Winter unless you like wet and very windy conditions. Don't really like bashing LRF, but what happened to the blocked dry December with hight to the north west..it's totally opposite. Surely it won't be long before the Met have to drop the bone, admit to a shocker, and change their outlook to a zonal theme....all the operational runs can't be wrong...Surely? 

 

[carinthian]

Well there we have it. No winter wonderland for the bulk of Western Europe to wake to on Christmas Day.  Uppers way too high. We in the Eastern Alps have to look forward to a long draw from the North African desert. Might as well chill and top up a sun tan. Just hope the models can show a change early next week. ECM first to lead the way to mild , so not expecting much change on their next run, but we can always hope for a rescue out of this stubborn mild set up that can take us down a much colder or seasonal route.

 C

Edited December 18, 2016 by carinthian

[knocker]

The ecm also has some very strong winds over the weekend with gusts around 80mph in places, Northern Scotland and Ireland come to mind although anywhere that is exposed is quite liable.

 

[TEITS]

This is what I posted on the 29th November in my status update.

"Going to disagree with some on here. My forecasting instincts are telling me this period of settled weather will be replaced by a milder more mobile pattern as we head into December. This is especially true from mid Dec onwards when a stormy pattern could develop."

Think I shall stick with my instincts than these long range models and any forecasts that use teleconnections.

[SteveB]

I think it's fair to say the similarities between this year and the last few are starting to show there hand, I think someone mentioned last night we were on our fourth named storm by now last year, well we could easily by on that by the turn of the year.

In many way's this Winter is worse than last year as it had so much promise but ultimately led us down a blind alley to be beaten up by two thugs again.

 

Edited December 18, 2016 by SteveB