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Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go


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1 minute ago, IDO said:

FWIW Christmas Day now a washout into Boxing Day. Not that it will happen, but hard to call that wintry: gfseu-2-198.png

And remember uppers generally downgrade on the GFS as we approach T0. The GEM is quite mild already washing out the upper temps:

gem-9-192.pnggfseu-15-324.png

Zonal for sure but cold zonality not really. As for snow, sea-level unlikely IMO even up North, down south no chance at the moment. After D10 upper anomalies way above average for western Europe. That promises a very mild post Christmas period, though that is to do with the trending resurgence to mid-lat of the Azores energy; however where the core high sits will guide us to surface temps and on this run very mild, conversely the 06z was cool.

 

 

Not sure using Xmas Day as the example is a fair representation of my post IDO.

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ECMWF Monthly goes off-piste versus it's deterministic brother into & particularly beyond Christmas. The +ve GPH/MSLP anomalies out to our NE merely intensify again towards end of month, then show

My retired colleague Ian McCaskill, RIP, would have relished discussing this Christmas Kerfuffle on-air with typical humour.  GFS 12z deterministic very similar in final reaches of run to Thursda

EC MONTHLY: again like last run. Blocked & dry anomalies developing 1st half Jan as heights move W to north of UK. Colder than avg anomalies southern UK 2nd week Jan (not seen that signal for a wh

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2 minutes ago, IDO said:

FWIW Christmas Day now a washout into Boxing Day. Not that it will happen, but hard to call that wintry: gfseu-2-198.png

And remember uppers generally downgrade on the GFS as we approach T0. The GEM is quite mild already washing out the upper temps:

gem-9-192.pnggfseu-15-324.png

Zonal for sure but cold zonality not really. As for snow, sea-level unlikely IMO even up North, down south no chance at the moment. After D10 upper anomalies way above average for western Europe. That promises a very mild post Christmas period, though that is to do with the trending resurgence to mid-lat of the Azores energy; however where the core high sits will guide us to surface temps and on this run very mild, conversely the 06z was cool.

 

 

 

To be fair your looking later in the day when some milder air moves in earlier in the day has plenty opportunities for snow especially over high ground in the north

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prectypeuktopo.pngprectypeuktopo.pngukmaxtemp.png

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1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

To be fair your looking later in the day when some milder air moves in earlier in the day has plenty opportunities for snow especially over high ground in the north

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Indeed I think your post earlier summed up what the GFS was showing nicely. I think with the predicted pattern and the fact we are still a week away Xmas diy could do be cold start mild end or mild start cold finnish....

 

Changeable

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4 minutes ago, daz_4 said:

12z puts winter on hold for Europe including Scandinavia. Horrendous run.

Ditto North America .

more cold being bottled up in high latitude now the PV has regrouped. 

 

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Let's hope the ECM comes to the rescue.  The NWP has been horrific for coldies so far this evening.

Meanwhile, the CFS suggests the AO and NAO are likely to go mildly negative as we enter January.  Something to hold on or yet more jam tomorrow?

Edited by mulzy
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1 minute ago, karyo said:

Let's hope this helps the Arctic ice to grow faster as it continues to be on record low!

Not likely with storm after storm tracking north. The Arctic will be even in worse state on the Atlantic side when this is over.

gfsnh-14-90.png?12

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41 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Afternoon All

Nothing of real interest in the models today, as expected really - a bit of modified cold - but not any proper cold zonality as the low pressure isnt anchored to the North of the UK- Theres probably a couple of days around xmas with 6-12 hour windows for wintryness in the NW / NI & scotland @ elevation -

 

Does seem to be even less PM air on 12z

My untrained eye seems to focus on the area I have circled in black

Is there anything that could give is 24/36hrs of PM over xmas period at this stage ?

low.jpg

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Looks like Santa has been abducted and held hostage by a mild loving Grinch!

Some initial hopes a few days ago of some trough disruption have hit the buffers. The pattern looks like one which is going to test what little patience coldies had left.

The suggestion is an unsettled Christmas and then the jet edging further nw as the pattern slowly retrogresses, as that occurs southerlies are likely to head north as pressure rises to the east, the question at the moment is how far  west the pattern sets up because that does effect the flow over western Europe, further west and the high could be close enough to bring more continental air rather than that milder south/ sw flow which the GFS has.

I think at this point that's really the main uncertainty, after this retrogression its a case of whether we can back the PV sufficiently nw to get any high much further north.

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Well let's hope ECM can give us a good evening then later gfs has a good pub run ,high over euro and polar vortex both need to fight it out ,at the moment we don't have a definite clue as to what the synoptic s will be in 7 days ,crikey I need a sleep before 7pm so it's back to my pram ,cheers :hi::yahoo:

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17 minutes ago, doghouse said:

Hope those touting the  zonal pattern reset are happy. The GFS 12z are utterly horrible for the holiday period and will have a few crying into their cornflakes for long after the festivities have stopped

Anything is better than the mild benign dross so far this winter, a change is on the way thank goodness:D

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53 minutes ago, IDO said:

FWIW Christmas Day now a washout into Boxing Day. Not that it will happen, but hard to call that wintry: gfseu-2-198.png

And remember uppers generally downgrade on the GFS as we approach T0. The GEM is quite mild already washing out the upper temps:

gem-9-192.pnggfseu-15-324.png

Zonal for sure but cold zonality not really. As for snow, sea-level unlikely IMO even up North, down south no chance at the moment. After D10 upper anomalies way above average for western Europe. That promises a very mild post Christmas period, though that is to do with the trending resurgence to mid-lat of the Azores energy; however where the core high sits will guide us to surface temps and on this run very mild, conversely the 06z was cool.

 

 

 
 
 
 

Happy Christmas to you too, I'm Dreaming Of A White Christmas. :snowman-emoji: You're surely too wise (like all of us old-timers), to write off prospects of some transient snowfall come the festive period, especially given we are talking timeframes of t+19,000 minutes or thereabouts. Yet, you did cleverly present an argument for all options being on a table, I say it a few more days of model runs before jumping on board, the nothing festive happening train. BTW I do think the 22nd into the 23rd December holds some wintry interest for a few as this period has held firm as being that way over a number of outputs now.

 

Happy Christmas to everyone else too. Off out shortly, the ECM will likely restore some faith for coldies. :ball-santa-emoji:

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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47 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

High pressure over Europe drags up a lot of mild air in between Christmas and New year

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ukmaxtemp.pngukmaxtemp.pngukmaxtemp.png

 
 

In six months time, I'd love those charts to verify (I bet you would too, Summer Sun), hopefully that's where they'll stay, come the more reliable ECM 12z runs. :D

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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13 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

it's the weather it doesn't care about our wishes, feelings or opinions neither does it care what the models say, it just does what it does...

Stating the obvious and completely missing the point. The reason so many invest in the time of model watching is wishing for snow, so conversely we don't wish for zonal weather.The zonal pattern reset is the worse possible outcome whilst hoping for a cold pattern to develop

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1 minute ago, doghouse said:

Stating the obvious and completely missing the point. The reason so many invest in the time of model watching is wishing for snow, so conversely we don't wish for zonal weather.The zonal pattern reset is the worse possible outcome whilst hoping for a cold pattern to develop

But the models are showing snow later next week, happy days!:santa-emoji:

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Zonality surely not all bad? Prefer it to the anticyclonic gloom. I still think its too marginal to call for the big day. The polar maritime air is knocking at the door on5+days time. More optimistic now than 4days ago! Ive seen zonal pattern before bring alot of wintry weather on a strong positive NAO. Beginning of Jan 1984.  These charts arent horrendus by any stretch. 

 

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11 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

But the models are showing snow later next week, happy days!:santa-emoji:

Lol! I'm sure the mountain goats will be happy. It's a blink and you'll miss it affair with the flow modified and really three hours of slush on a hill is scraping the bottom of a barrel. It's a shame the models couldn't have at least managed a northerly toppler. Indeed recent years haven't even managed one of those. Maybe the ECM can pull a Christmas Cracker this evening and stop the thread turning into a wake.

Edited by nick sussex
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