Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

[Methuselah]

Can't really say that the 12Z has one gripping the edge of one's seat, TBH: a couple of days' unsettled and rather cold conditions (snow on hills a distinct possibility) followed by the Revenge of The Euroslug?

Wake me up in 15 days please?

[Frosty.]

4 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

Just been watching that, JBM - a potential 1052mb stonker @ T+384, in association with what (to my ever-optimistic viewpoint) looks like a relocating wodge of PV? But, will it happen? Who knows? Modern-day chickens come without entrails!

Hi Ed, I got a deja vu feeling when I read your post

[Nick F]

6 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Can't really say that the 12Z has one gripping the edge of one's seat, TBH: a couple of days' unsettled and rather cold conditions (snow on hills a distinct possibility) followed by the Revenge of The Euroslug?

Wake me up in 15 days please?

Yes, if the zonal spell does relax to invite high pressure back, I hope the Azores ridge doesn't link with the eastern European/W Russia high. As it will be back to square one with the same old tedium we have now and recent days. Really need to see more jet energy over the N Atlantic sent SE into SW Europe and maintained long-term, otherwise we see a cut-off low over Iberia and the Azores ridging NE over the UK. But before then ... we have some zonal to get through, but not without interest for snow fans in the north and west ...

Edited December 16, 2016 by Nick F

[The PIT]

Well the bore fest set to continue for reliable time frame. At least there's something of interest deeper into fi land. If t171 comes of it may become interesting. May see some wind and some white stuff from that. In deep lala land it's worth a flutter for some snow on xmas.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Let's put thw mockers on the 12z  ECM but what I am seeing is increasing support for a cold stormy Xmas, and enough to think it could be disruptive.....not in a WALL OF SNOW way though but naughty enough

 

BFTP

[Summer Sun]

GFS P (06z) puts the south in the firing line 1st before pulling in north-westerly gales

Christmas day itself isn't too windy for most parts the exception being the southwest and NE Scotland

Then calmer for all on Boxing day as the sales and sporting events take place up and down the country

Edited December 16, 2016 by Summer Sun

[chris55]

Something to note on the GFS 12z is how the deep purples of an entrenched pv over Greenland dissipate significantly into the mid term. We have a much more fragmented lobe to our north and that will no doubt open the door to some much more interesting and potentially colder synoptics.

GFS 120, note the deep purples to the north,

 

 

Then as we move towards the mid term we see a relaxing of the strong PV and we get some subtle ridging and a displacement of the main vortex. Doesn't produce anything noteworthy for our patch on this run but the trend is a much more favourable one

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 12z mean shows anticyclonic conditions returning between xmas / new year with frosts and fog.

Edited December 16, 2016 by Frosty.

[stewfox]

6 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Well the bore fest set to continue for reliable time frame. At least there's something of interest deeper into fi land. If t171 comes of it may become interesting. May see some wind and some white stuff from that. In deep lala land it's worth a flutter for some snow on xmas.

Ding dong the High has gone and that's my bore fest gone.

Just outside the reliable I agree some interest.

With low pressure PM air and our old friend called 'the low' , where is that  going to go.

 

[Summer Sun]

Surprise Surprise

 

[JBMWeatherForever]

That polar front won't have to trend much further south than is already being shown to make the Christmas Period much more interesting. Theirs still plenty of time for that to happen yet, and If that trend does continued would it not also be a quicker way to an easterly with lows taking an increasingly southerly track up against an increasingly strong block to the east ?   

[chris55]

Ahhhhhh who remembers dec 2010........... just had a thought about how cold and crisp that day xmas day was with all the lakes frozen solid, our Christmas day walk was magical.

The month as a whole was spectacular and we had many charts like this one.

Lets hope January 2017 can be the new December 2010!!

Edited December 16, 2016 by chris55

[Iceberg]

Better jet angle in the ecm at t120. I feel a snowy run coming up pre Christmas. 

[booferking]

Cant complain at that should be some snow for some to the lead up to Xmas.

[Frosty.]

There is tons of cold potential from the extended GEFS 12z especially by early January!

Edited December 16, 2016 by Frosty.

[mulzy]

Just now, booferking said:

Cant complain at that should be some snow for some to the lead up to Xmas.

To be honest, the vast majority will NOT see snow with that chart.

[cheshire snow]

8 minutes ago, Iceberg said:

Better jet angle in the ecm at t120. I feel a snowy run coming up pre Christmas. 

Indeed 

-8 uppers into NW Scotland at T144

C.S

[chris55]

We need that developing low to head south east or stall and build a ridge ahead, though looking at the broader picture it will probably head north east.

[booferking]

Just now, mulzy said:

To be honest, the vast majority will NOT see snow with that chart.

Yea but south is not vast majority and i did say some, Scotland Ireland north England will see some so all good.

[Summer Sun]

ECM has the deepening low to the west of Ireland on Friday the chances of snow diminish

[Summer Sun]

The low is further north on Xmas eve

Air still not cold enough for snow bar maybe the highest ground in Scotland

[West is Best]

I don't suppose many of us truly believe this is likely but it's really quite extraordinary in terms of the timing. Midnight on Christmas Eve:

 

 

Midnight on Christmas Eve!

As mentioned earlier, I've dismissed cold maritime setups before, only to find snow falling twice in recent years in north Devon ... on Christmas Day.

Bizarre really. We go all month with garbage and suddenly when the magic day appears ...

[mulzy]

Day 8 ECM gives us a glimmer of hope...

 

[Summer Sun]

At least ECM has dropped the storm over Christmas on this run still unsettled but no major gales

Better chance of some snow too on the 25th

[Iceberg]

-5s for the north and west and -4s everywhere else. Not a bad chart for Christmas Day at midday. Given the 24 h nature of the ecm charts it's a fair chance that 07am would see colder less modified air. 

not bad at all