Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

[Man With Beard]

7 hours ago, fergieweather said:

EC MONTHLY: again like last run. Blocked & dry anomalies developing 1st half Jan as heights move W to north of UK. Colder than avg anomalies southern UK 2nd week Jan (not seen that signal for a while!). East-NE flow. So continuity between last runs and ditto with GloSea5. 

Don't shoot messenger. Just describing the output: not making any comment on outcome.

Thanks Ian, really appreciate your view as of course you see much more than us.

A question I have on the colder period you mention - just to be sure I've understood the chart - is that more of a surface cold? When I look at the 850s, the main cold anomaly is towards Iberia - which would be typical of a UK High (or slightly to the north) with the main cold pool much further south (of course, such detail rather academic at this stage)? As below:

 

[Frosty.]

Some of us will see snow before christmas if the Gfs 00z is right!

Edited December 16, 2016 by Frosty.

[bluearmy]

26 minutes ago, knocker said:

In what time frame do you foresee a weak continental flow Blue?

Later week 2 knocks although initially would be a mid lat ridge across the uk so any flow is going to be weak. thereafter signs that the ridging may get a little further north allowing a stronger flow though no strong evidence of anything strong enough to advect deep cold as yet 

[blizzard81]

Ecm yet again turns from hero to villain in the space of 12 hours. Too many small ridges from the Azores, unlike last night's run. Just when gfs had moved to the ecm solution of last night. I swear these models are attention seekers.

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Ecm yet again turns from hero to villain in the space of 12 hours. Too many small ridges from the Azores, unlike last night's run. Just when gfs had moved to the ecm solution of last night. I swear these models are attention seekers.

Yes, a poor ecm det this morning with plenty of wind and rain on offer around christmas.gfs is better for coldies although both models are suggesting heights building across Europe by day 10 again.This euro high is fast becoming a major pain now, as blue mentions above its curtains for any decent cold while those horrid heights remain..

[knocker]

17 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Later week 2 knocks although initially would be a mid lat ridge across the uk so any flow is going to be weak. thereafter signs that the ridging may get a little further north allowing a stronger flow though no strong evidence of anything strong enough to advect deep cold as yet 

I can see where you are coming from but I'm thinking surface high more to the SE then moving slightly NW so initially a light southerly then veering to a very light SW becoming basically calm. I can't see the surface HP getting very far north but of course we don't have the detail.

Edited December 16, 2016 by knocker

[Seasonality]

6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes, a poor ecm det this morning with plenty of wind and rain on offer around christmas.gfs is better for coldies although both models are suggesting heights building across Europe by day 10 again.This euro high is fast becoming a major pain now, as blue mentions above its curtains for any decent cold while those horrid heights remain..

The damn thing is like a vampire, it keeps rising from the dead.

[stewfox]

5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Y?a poor ecm det this morning with pl enty of wind and rain on offer around christmas.gfs is better for coldies although both models are suggesting heights building across Europe by day 10 again.This euro high is fast becoming a major pain now, as blue mentions above its curtains for any decent cold while those horrid heights remain..

The gfs 00z is showing snow for many before xmas ?

[northwestsnow]

Just now, stewfox said:

The gfs 00z is showing snow for many before xmas ?

It is, its better than ecm for sure..

[Seasonality]

Question. Is it just me or is the 06z a milder run than others, at least for parts of Europe. I recall reading that all of this stuff about the 'pub run' and the 06z being one for the bin is vastly exaggerated so I'm wondering is this just some kind of confirmation bias when I see a pattern. I'm always trying to overcome any tricks my mind plays on me in this regard so any input is appreciated. 

[karlos1983]

17 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Ecm yet again turns from hero to villain in the space of 12 hours. Too many small ridges from the Azores, unlike last night's run. Just when gfs had moved to the ecm solution of last night. I swear these models are attention seekers.

At the risk of getting mobbed! I'm actually looking forward to some active weather! 

And im sure it wouldn't take long for favoured spots to see some snow should  this verify.

 

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 00z isn't as bad as some are painting it, still showing occasional cold incursions, especially further north with snow at times on high ground. The main message from the 00z output is its going to be turning much more unsettled during the second half of next week and through the Christmas period with a mixture of mild, wet and very windy and colder, brighter and showery with even some frosts during quieter interludes.

Edited December 16, 2016 by Frosty.

[jvenge]

2 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Question. Is it just me or is the 06z a milder run than others, at least for parts of Europe. I recall reading that all of this stuff about the 'pub run' and the 06z being one for the bin is vastly exaggerated so I'm wondering is this just some kind of confirmation bias when I see a pattern. I'm always trying to overcome any tricks my mind plays on me in this regard so any input is appreciated. 

Can't say I have noticed anything. I'm generally used to the 06 and 12 downgrading stuff, though.

Speaking of downgrades, the ECM isn't giving Warsaw much love for Christmas.

[Seasonality]

Just now, jvenge said:

Can't say I have noticed anything. I'm generally used to the 06 and 12 downgrading stuff, though.

Speaking of downgrades, the ECM isn't giving Warsaw much love for Christmas.

No, but with so much chopping and changing at the moment I'm not too worried at 9 days out. Have you seen where the run lies within the ensembles?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

22 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Ecm yet again turns from hero to villain in the space of 12 hours. Too many small ridges from the Azores, unlike last night's run. Just when gfs had moved to the ecm solution of last night. I swear these models are attention seekers.

Yes but 12z was like 12z day before so lets see what 12z today brings.  I think 00z not as bad as 00z night before.

Quite a yarn to be spun in next 10 days I reckon

 

BFTP

 

[Seasonality]

1 minute ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Yes but 12z was like 12z day before so lets see what 12z today brings.  I think 00z not as bad as 00z night before.

Quite a yarn to be spun in next 10 days I reckon

 

BFTP

 

BFTP, just the way I'm seeing it. I think we'll have a real Christmas panto from the models next week or so!

[jvenge]

8 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

No, but with so much chopping and changing at the moment I'm not too worried at 9 days out. Have you seen where the run lies within the ensembles?

No, not looked at the ensembles for ECM, but the GEFS is giving so many options after day 6 and, like you, I'm not taking anything too seriously beyond that.

The 00z ECM has also vanished a nice snow event for the 23rd for me as well. 

 

 

Edited December 16, 2016 by jvenge

[Blessed Weather]

Matt Hugo:

Those hoping for a seasonal day, temp wise, can have some peace of mind knowing the 00Z EC was a particularly mild outlier for the 25th

 

[Seasonality]

1 minute ago, Blessed Weather said:

Matt Hugo:

Those hoping for a seasonal day, temp wise, can have some peace of mind knowing the 00Z EC was a particularly mild outlier for the 25th

 

@jvenge there we go

[Frosty.]

I think many of us are ready for a change from the benign stagnant mildish start to winter with the atlantic firing up next week with alternating mild and cold incursions..some action at last!

[daz_4]

2 minutes ago, jvenge said:

Speaking of downgrades, the ECM isn't giving Warsaw much love for Christmas.

The period from Christmas to New Year is in 90% always warm in central Europe so I don't expect much. Even great Decembers are defenseless against foehn wind from Alps around 24th. It's one of these weird phenomenons you can count on.

Looking at GEFS ENS, majority of them show coldest Christmas in 10 years so definitely chance for something more seasonal but I won't be surprised if they flip.

[Blessed Weather]

Matt has just tweeted the chart re ECM 0z an outlier:

[jvenge]

Just now, daz_4 said:

The period from Christmas to New Year is in 90% always warm in central Europe so I don't expect much. Even great Decembers are defenseless against foehn wind from Alps around 24th. It's one of these weird phenomenons you can count on.

Looking at GEFS ENS, majority of them show coldest Christmas in 10 years so definitely chance for something more seasonal but I won't be surprised if they flip.

Not sure. I don't actually see anything "mild" on offer. Like others here, even though I'm quite a distance away, I am becoming a little bored of the weather. Cold weather is all fine and well, but when it is the same for almost a month, it starts to become tedious. It's why I liked the 12z ECM yesterday, as it was showing some snow events.

We have 3 festive periods here. 25th, 31st(bigger occasion than 25th) and then the 7th for Orthodox Christmas. 

I'd take perturb 20 and 16, but the GFS is as dull as dish washer, even if it is cold dish water.

 

[jules216]

22 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

No, but with so much chopping and changing at the moment I'm not too worried at 9 days out. Have you seen where the run lies within the ensembles?

Here we go Seasonality,it is also a mild outlier for my home location in Slovakia

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, Snow Grain said:

Don't worry, the cold will kick in during the first half of January.

I'm not worried

There should be some colder incursions before christmas too in the form of cold zonality.