Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

[Frosty.]

Sticking to the reliable, the Gfs 18z shows high pressure building in again and at its strongest this weekend but even into early next week a ridge is still in place so a decent window of fine weather is on the way with day time temps cooling down and nights becoming cold enough for slight frosts with fog patches forming too where skies clear.

Edited December 14, 2016 by Frosty.

[booferking]

GFS control anybody.

[Snowman.]

Control run nearly gets an easterly in.

 

[nick sussex]

Tamara I really don't see the need for your post. I have clearly said about a hundred times I'm not criticizing those who do LRF's and have I ever criticized any of your posts. And yes I understood what went wrong. What exactly is your point?  You seem to think that theres some personal vendetta against those who do LRF's or against yourself who were trying to explain some of the possible problems. I don't see what the drama is about and so please stop trying to manufacture one.

[SMU]

15 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

What odds?  I got 7/2 Aberdeen

BFTP

11-1 on willi hill-

A Slight waft of change tonight as high pressure continues to be underplayed to the east -

We need a bit more though like the control...

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

11-1 on willi hill-

A Slight waft of change tonight as high pressure continues to be underplayed to the east -

We need a bit more though like the control...

 

 

18z continues with interest.....more tomorrow please

BFTP

Edited December 14, 2016 by ajpoolshark

[SMU]

Hum

Pretty significant shift in the ENS towards a cold Easterly -

This being the median pattern-

remem

I thought the ECM may breakaway earlier like this at 192 -

GFS ENS shown the biggest movement to cold so far this winter- all towards Xmas run in..

edit Feb1991 is that smarkets or bet exchange?

 

Edited December 14, 2016 by Steve Murr

[Banbury]

45 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes - could be an absolutely corking storm here - another 100mph+ wind run but this time further south so brings NW England into the firing line.

This was the 'lesser' likely option according to J Wynne, interesting to see how it all pans out

[Man With Beard]

Tamara sorry if my post caused offence, my point was actually more similar to yours, which is that some of us (including me!) have seen certain posters as having a magical ability to see the future - I'm pointing the finger at ourselves, not the posters - and i just need to be a little more careful in how clear-cut i see future evolutions. Please keep bringing your thoughts!!

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Hum

Pretty significant shift in the ENS towards a cold Easterly -

This being the median pattern-

remem

I thought the ECM may breakaway earlier like this at 192 -

GFS ENS shown the biggest movement to cold so far this winter- all towards Xmas run in...

 

This is the mean though.

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Banbury said:

This was the 'lesser' likely option according to J Wynne, interesting to see how it all pans out

Yes, I did see that.

[SMU]

-10c in the SE at 168 !!

[SMU]

12 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

This is the mean though.

What you out there for try 150- is where the signal is manifesting...

 

[Pembroke Dangler]

12 minutes ago, SN0WM4N said:

Control run nearly gets an easterly in.

 

This set up does have a slight resemblance to the 2012 trough disruption saga which continually corrected west the closer it came to fruition...... Hmmm could this about to start that exact same trend I wonder? Would be nice just think the high will put up more of a fight and with cold blocks we all now how stubborn they can be to shift especially one with that huge cold pool over Russia just waiting to pounce onto our shores. 

What a tease of a pub run will be looking for this in the mornings runs as a possible new evolution fingers crossed.

[MR EXTREMES]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

-10c in the SE at 168 !!

But this is not supported by any other model.

But at that time frame it would have been interesting if it was supported.

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, Steve Murr said:

What you out there for try 150- is where the signal is manifesting...

 

But there is hardly any ens members with -10c anywhere near Britain at 150, so looking further ahead.

[Snowman.]

Oh boy

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=168

Panels show a good story I should say prehaps we're not done yet?

 

Edited December 14, 2016 by SN0WM4N

[Cheshire Freeze]

9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

This is the mean though.

The thing I notice there is the elongated core of the PV. For once not stretched in a way which precludes cold for us. Could easily see an easterly set up out of that going forward.

Even further on into the extended range, the overwhelming signal within the GEFS is for the Canadian vortex to start to run out of steam (which should thwart any meaningful zonality)...what was that Bluearmy was saying about 4-6 weeks of zonality being 'poppycock'....

Edited December 14, 2016 by CreweCold

[fergieweather]

4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

 And yes I understood what went wrong.

 

:-) 'phone Adam Scaife and his team before they meet on Monday, Nick... as that's the very enigma they're trying to resolve even before discussing the next 3 months!

The fact remains that trying to fathom where these longer range outputs lead us *is* creditable: after all, they underpin everything we later see modelled at shorter range. And just as we see UKV misrepresent (or even miss altogether) the behaviour of a shortwave trough even at T+6hrs, we'll sure as dammit see times when a seasonal coupled model messes-up at T+600 hrs. It'll happen. We accept it. We run hindcasts; we learn; the model learns. Science advances. Snippet by snippet...

Whilst it's very easy to trash the seasonal or 30d models (primarily by people seemingly obsessed with some sole desire of snow, or who wrongly assume blocking=frigid), it's intriguing that many of those who devalue the long range bespoke models then willingly accept deterministic output so faithfully at those extended ranges as 'proof' of the extended lead models being 'wrong". 

That's a judgement we can reasonably make at around 5-7 days. But not at 10-15.

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, CreweCold said:

The thing I notice there is the elongated core of the PV. For once not stretched in a way which precludes cold for us. Could easily see an easterly set up out of that going forward.

Glad you mentioned that, the one thing that's keeping me interested (but this is further into Jan for me) is that Russian high looks like re-invigorating, 2 things this does, if we get an Easterly down the line it ensures brutal 1987 style uppers get advected westwards, secondly it makes an SSW more likely as its a precursor pattern so ultimately increases our chances of cold.

[SMU]

13 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

But there is hardly any ens members with -10c anywhere near Britain at 150, so looking further ahead.

Its worth putting on the pad for review tomorrow

You never get true 850 depth from easterly ENS data until sub 96 hours- even at 48 ive seen -10/s becomes -13s ( mar 13 IIRC )

Look at 150 on

PTB 1,2,3!!!,6,7,8!!!,11 !!,14,15!!,17-

[Cheshire Freeze]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Glad you mentioned that, the one thing that's keeping me interested (but this is further into Jan for me) is that Russian high looks like re-invigorating, 2 things this does, if we get an Easterly down the line it ensures brutal 1987 style uppers get advected westwards, secondly it makes an SSW more likely as its a precursor pattern so ultimately increases our chances of cold.

CFS Jan anomalies just where we want 'em

[Snowman.]

D10

West v East?

 

[sawan]

Guys I am really struggling to follow here . I value all the senior (more knowledgeable) members , no criticism on anyone, I have read a few pages from earlier today and guess what I am confused now . Who should be followed? Got no clue. On top of that we have already started a blame game. Please keep posting and sharing and also consider the junior (less knowledgeable) members like myself and many more on here . Thanks.

[SMU]

Can we just agree that should a decent level of disruption occur the NAVGEM was the first to land it 12z

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgeme_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=0&carte=0&archive=0