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Paul

Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

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Reading today's thread - should it be renamed the long range model discussion thread... alot of off topic posts in here today, not making for a good thread overall. Perhaps the lesson learnt here is best stick to reliable timeframe i.e. 144 hrs, 168 hrs tops, and you won't be frustrated. Yes good to look at the longer range outputs, but take which large caution. 

I'm sensing this thread in the days ahead is going to be a miserable place to be, and with that I won't be in here again until Monday, when the prospects for christmas become much clearer. 

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7 minutes ago, offerman said:

 

 

 The patterns to sing over the years to show America getting more severe winters and Europe  getting milder winters . 

Actually that isn't correct

US.JPG

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Notice the different profile of the jet on the 22nd on the 18Z compared to the 12Z GFS

gfs-5-183-3h_jvu9.pnggfs-5-180_jlp9.png

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The PV is having a harder job here breaking through and the Azores high more displaced so far on the GFS 18hrs run.

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1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

UK zonality cancel.

Note how just the smidgeon of atlantic amplification & slightly better Scandi heights changes the whole orientation of how things progress down the line.

IMG_0322.PNG

With v v cold air in Europe this isn't too far away from something much better - hard to believe that will happen though.

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 Considering it's called the reliable timeframe, it's rather surprising that I haven't heard anything about the output within it discussed this evening, but there's been loads about longer range stuff. So what is the weather actually going to be like in the next week? 

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Just now, radiohead said:

A strong low following, quite far south.

 

gfs-0-204_olj9.png

Yes - could be an absolutely corking storm here - another 100mph+ wind run but this time further south so brings NW England into the firing line.

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gfsnh-0-210.png?18

Pub run treat or trend? 12z had the block standing its ground but was a little too far east no we've seen it progress further west. Either way the block doesn't want to go without a fight.

 

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14 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Reading today's thread - should it be renamed the long range model discussion thread... alot of off topic posts in here today, not making for a good thread overall. Perhaps the lesson learnt here is best stick to reliable timeframe i.e. 144 hrs, 168 hrs tops, and you won't be frustrated. Yes good to look at the longer range outputs, but take which large caution. 

I'm sensing this thread in the days ahead is going to be a miserable place to be, and with that I won't be in here again until Monday, when the prospects for christmas become much clearer. 

I've often thought there should be a model discussion thread for 0-10 days were people aren't allowed to discuss past 10 days. 

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I think this GFS run is the first to at least attempt some energy heading se at the crucial timeframe. It even tries to get a lobe of positive heights over the top of the first low.

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1 minute ago, Spah1 said:

I've often thought there should be a model discussion thread for 0-10 days were people aren't allowed to discuss past 10 days. 

Here here.  Always thought that would be a good idea. 

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A 949mb low pressure to the West of Ireland at T+216 - Can't wait to see where this GFS OP run sits in the ensembles!

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6 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

With v v cold air in Europe this isn't too far away from something much better - hard to believe that will happen though.

Ye it won't be there in The 00z

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The issue even if we get this trend is these low pressures remain attached to the Alien Queen( deep low heights and PV over Greenland) whose popping out energy pods to feed her vile spawn. Shortwaves running east pick up some energy from mother and then hurtle into the UK. These deep lows are reluctant to disrupt. Regardless at least the earlier trend gives a glimmer of hope after a rather underwhelming evening of outputs.

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13 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

 Considering it's called the reliable timeframe, it's rather surprising that I haven't heard anything about the output within it discussed this evening, but there's been loads about longer range stuff. So what is the weather actually going to be like in the next week? 

Well the problem is we clearly don't know! We had so much forecasts of blocking that I still somehow believe I will wake up in the morning to find it is back to where it was - yet some models are just flat, and now we have models raining storms on us - and maybe even sending the storms SE. We often talk about FI being a certain timeframe, and I'd put that somewhere between T120 and T144. Just for starters, I believe that area of low heights near Italy has not been modelled properly yet, and that could have a major impact at a short timeframe.

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35 minutes ago, Dennis said:

wow 18z some is on his way

75.png

Russian high migrated 1,000/2,000 miles Eastwards on this run...more please!:D

Not too dissimilar there.

gfsnh-0-222.png

IMG_0009.PNG.5f594cdcc5db57e340f08dd618d52fe8.PNG

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