Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, bluearmy said:

Poppycock refers to anyone saying they know for sure that zonality will set in for 4/6 weeks 

it might .......

With the trop vortex ramping up with the strat as well, you have to say without an SSW its extremely likely, and Interitus's posts in previous years have proved very accurate as to timing (or lack of) SSW's based on previous vortex strength analogues, he's the one I would most listen to, Fair enough I think you enjoy the learning process and not just cold and snow solely, but to others who may feel they have wasted their time / even ruined relationships come end Feb, don't say you weren't warned, I called this a few weeks ago.

[Weather-history]

9 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Poppycock refers to anyone saying they know for sure that zonality will set in for 4/6 weeks 

it might .......

Anyone who says this, for me, must know the answer to this question then...

How long is a piece of a string? 

[Yarkie]

4 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Anyone who says this, for me, must know the answer to this question then...

How long is a piece of a string? 

17cm

[phil nw.]

1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

Lmao! Longer range signals need to be consigned to the swear filter! The longer range models as we've seen from the weather delivered so far in December weren't up to much. It's clear so far that those longer range models have failed this winter. I'm done with them and will stick to finding signs of life within a more realistic timeframe.

We have seen quite a turn around in recent model runs haven't we Nick,most disappointing.I was hoping for at least a spell of surface cold and frosty days with the high holding on for a while for Christmas.

We have been here so many times though,once that Greenland vortex establishes the cold gets locked in further north and all the UK can hope for is transient incursions polar maritime air.

The current modeling has pretty much dropped any notable amplification upstream with any heights showing too far east in the medium term.

It is just a case of waiting for some thing to re-amplify the jet in order to release some of that locked up Arctic cold.

[Jammydodger]

8 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Anyone who says this, for me, must know the answer to this question then...

How long is a piece of a string? 

Double it's length from the middle

[blizzard81]

Ecm ens say - "wet and windy just in time for Christmas" Typical!

[Scandinavian High.]

The unsettled spell looks to be short lived wettest winder conditions look to be in the north dryer for southern England maybe a frosts . This may not happen but GFS looks interesting at 384 hours high pressure pushes over U.K. Again looks like it  could pull up to  Scandinavia maybe cold easterly as we go In to January .

Edited December 14, 2016 by abbie123

[nick sussex]

The ECM ensemble mean looks more like the GFS with the Russian high more in evidence. The ECM did depart from its morning effort quite early but whether this is the correct new trend we'll see tomorrow.

Theres still a large spread of solutions to the ne.

[Man With Beard]

1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

Lmao! Longer range signals need to be consigned to the swear filter! The longer range models as we've seen from the weather delivered so far in December weren't upto much. It's clear so far that those longer range models have failed this winter. I'm done with them and will stick to finding signs of life within a more realistic timeframe.

I'm glad you've said it Nick because I've really wanted to say it in the last two days! I made a really positive post just 48 hours ago based on the EC46, and my analysis was supported by comments of others at the time - a strong block somewhere around the Balkan sea for D7-D14 which regressed towards the UK with time. Now this. A few people explained the EC46 weekly mean masked the day to day variations but ... no - let's call a spade a spade, it's COMPLETELY DIFFERENT to the latest output. It was unusual to be wrong for week 2 - it normally gets that fairly close - but having looked at even more archives of its week 3 this week, I now conclude that anything beyond D14 on the EC46 is too unreliable, too often for it to be used to make a forecast for the UK.

The problem has been that some fantastic professional people have kindly taken the time to tell us what the LRFs are saying - but because these people are so respected, they are seen as having a "magic key" to the weather - not their fault I add - and so what they have merely reported from the LRFs has been reinterpreted by too many as a final verdict on our future weather (and I freely admit I include myself here, I have had this fatalistic reaction at times myself!).

It's time for us to get real and go back to basics. No-one can forecast beyond D6 accurately. And no-one can forecast beyond D10 with a very high level of confidence, whether there's a QBO, AO, NAO, SSW, SSI, SOI, ENSO, MJO, GLAAM, GMO or whatever!!! It's fun to look for the trends. But please, no-one else tell me we're definitely going to have a blocked January. And likewise no-one tell me winter is over because the vortex is back! 

Edited December 14, 2016 by Man With Beard

[Dennis]

when russia awakes

[Stuie]

3 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

I'm glad you've said it Nick because I've really wanted to say it in the last two days! I made a really positive post just 48 hours ago based on the EC46, and my analysis was supported by comments of others at the time - a strong block somewhere around the Balkan sea for D7-D14 which regressed towards the UK with time. Now this. A few people explained the EC46 weekly mean masked the day to day variations but ... no - let's call a spade a spade, it's COMPLETELY DIFFERENT to the latest output. It was unusual to be wrong for week 2 - it normally gets that fairly close - but having looked at even more archives of its week 3 this week, I now conclude that anything beyond D14 on the EC46 is too unreliable, too often for it to be used to make a forecast for the UK.

The problem has been that some fantastic professional people have kindly taken the time to tell us what the LRFs are saying - but because these people are so respected, thet are seen as having a "magic key" to the weather - not their fault I add - and so what they have merely reported from the LRFs has been reinterpreted by too many as a final verdict on our future weather.

It's time for us to get real and go back to basics. No-one can forecast beyond D6 accurately. And no-one can forecast beyond D10 with a very high level of confidence, whether there's a QBO, AO, NAO, SSW, SSI, SOI, ENSO, MJO, GLAAM, GMO or whatever!!! It's fun to look for the trends. But please, no-one else tell me we're definitely going to have a blocked January. And likewise no-one tell me winter is over because the vortex is back! 

Your last paragraph is completely spot on, glad you said that, I find it difficult to read this forum sometimes.

[knocker]

The anomalies tonight are not without interest. In the 6-10 range they are all in pretty god agreement. Upstream is dominated by the complex Canadian vortex with a lobe SE of Greenland with associated negatively tilted trough into the eastern Atlantic. It is the precise orientation and intensity of this trough and the subsequent precise orientation of the HP to the east that differentiates the ecm from NOAA and the GEFS. Thus, regarding the former, when it comes to the day to day surface evolution the probability is that systems associated with the trough will track further south and impact the whole of the UK whereas the other two, with a slack upper flow over the southern half of the UK and sharper ridging to the east, may well see the southern half of the UK remain under the influence of the HP

Moving forward from here is where the problems start. It looks very much as if much of this down to how they handle the vortex.and by association the trough. NOAA and the EPS are on the same page keeping the trough to the NW, the HP a tad further east, and thus an unsettled westerly upper flow. The GEFS on the  other hand appears to have gone into retrogression mode with a weaker vortex and trough with positive anomalies appearing adjacent to the UK once again. A watching brief is advisable.

 

[Scandinavian High.]

Ensemble 17 shows how we could go in to a cold spell with this trigger low. 

[KTtom]

9 minutes ago, Dennis said:

when russia awakes

The uk Bakes??

[Dennis]

Just now, KTtom said:

The uk Bakes??

its 10 days later then my posting 

[nick sussex]

5 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

I'm glad you've said it Nick because I've really wanted to say it in the last two days! I made a really positive post just 48 hours ago based on the EC46, and my analysis was supported by comments of others at the time - a strong block somewhere around the Balkan sea for D7-D14 which regressed towards the UK with time. Now this. A few people explained the EC46 weekly mean masked the day to day variations but ... no - let's call a spade a spade, it's COMPLETELY DIFFERENT to the latest output. It was unusual to be wrong for week 2 - it normally gets that fairly close - but having looked at even more archives of its week 3 this week, I now conclude that anything beyond D14 on the EC46 is too unreliable, too often for it to be used to make a forecast for the UK.

The problem has been that some fantastic professional people have kindly taken the time to tell us what the LRFs are saying - but because these people are so respected, thet are seen as having a "magic key" to the weather - not their fault I add - and so what they have merely reported from the LRFs has been reinterpreted by too many as a final verdict on our future weather.

It's time for us to get real and go back to basics. No-one can forecast beyond D6 accurately. And no-one can forecast beyond D10 with a very high level of confidence, whether there's a QBO, AO, NAO, SSW, SSI, SOI, ENSO, MJO, GLAAM, GMO or whatever!!! It's fun to look for the trends. But please, no-one else tell me we're definitely going to have a blocked January. And likewise no-one tell me winter is over because the vortex is back!

I think the problem is that theres been an obvious disconnect between the seasonal models and what we've actually seen occur. It might be a winter which was much more sensitive to those unforeseen variables. You make a good point with too much stall being placed on LRF's and its not that people don't appreciate the hard work that goes into them. Of course without pushing the boundaries science doesn't move forward but I think we're in a situation where some areas are very hard to make progress in and I'd put weather in that category.

[stewfox]

26 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The ECM ensemble mean looks more like the GFS with the Russian high more in evidence. The ECM did depart from its morning effort quite early but whether this is the correct new trend we'll see tomorrow.

Theres still a large spread of solutions to the ne.

Await the GFS 0z at 5am tomorrow with interest

 

[Seasonality]

20 minutes ago, Dennis said:

when russia awakes

Nice. Look at that brutal cold pushing west of the Urals. You can see the chill spilling over into central and eastern Europe too. Cool even into parts of the Mahgreb.

[damianslaw]

As I always do, sticking to the reliable, the models today have moved away from the ridge holding and exerting greater influence as we move into early next week, and instead we see the current status quo position with the atlantic trying to move in against the ridge, enough to maintain a generally damp overcast and fairly mild picture - which is a pity as I was hoping for a brighter cooler interlude with the return of frost, alas the outlook looks preety gloomy in terms of bright skies - Saturday holds a bit more promise, should be a dry bright cooler day.

Where do we go as we approach christmas, the trend appears to be towards the atlantic having a greater say in things, ECM output showing quite cool uppers invading northern parts in time for christmas, so a return to snow on higher ground in the north I suspect, if these charts verify.

 

[Catacol]

20 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I think the problem is that theres been an obvious disconnect between the seasonal models and what we've actually seen occur. It might be a winter which was much more sensitive to those unforeseen variables. You make a good point with too much stall being placed on LRF's and its not that people don't appreciate the hard work that goes into them. Of course without pushing the boundaries science doesn't move forward but I think we're in a situation where some areas are very hard to make progress in and I'd put weather in that category.

And yet Nick - if we dont try and understand the factors that drive the models in the first place then each chart is just a collection of pretty colours on a page drawn in a roughly circular pattern without any discernible structure. The reality is somewhat different.

There is no good people getting hot under the collar about off target or delayed forecasting - it has been explained in great detail by Tamara for one what and how this may happen. Indeed she did so over a fortnight ago. But so many coldies here only read what they wish to read, and seemingly fail to grasp the pitfalls in terms of a tiny part of the globe sat in the N Atlantic when looking at large scale global developments.

In reality the long range forecast has actually been quite good. It predicted a blocked pattern. We have now been blocked for a good period of time, and will be blocked for a little while longer. By the time any cyclonicity arrives in Xmas week we will have seen all of December up until that point blocked. What people are upset about is that the block was not further north. Well - let's be blunt. This has been explained over and over to those who wish to read and understand... that the degree of amplification in the pattern was always going largely to depend on an uptick in pacific forcing maintaining AAM at a decent level while the vortex was disrupted. The MJO has been slow to move... GLAAM has remained neutral though not trending negative as GEFS would have it. Effect? A mid lat block that looks likely now to sink in the medium term while we await that pacific forcing.

So... all perfectly understandable and I reckon when the predicted anomaly charts are compared to the actual anomalies they wont be far out. Yes - frustrating that the dice havent rolled in favour of snow... and a movement in the block of a few hundred miles has meant mild SW rather than cold NE winds... but at least we still have over 66% of winter left.

I for one would hate it if this thread descended to a "chuck a brick at the long term forecasters" - because all they are trying to do is broaden knowledge, explain why the models behave as they do, and provide a degree of guidance on possible futures. No more - no less. Read what has been said by the semi pros on here and actually the pattern we are experiencing now becomes clear. And as I posted earlier today - the signals have not changed. The timing may have been off... but the potential for more blocking and in a more favourable position is still there. 

[nick sussex]

Catacol I'm not criticizing those who do LRF's. I'm just of the belief that theres too much chaos in the atmosphere to be able to accurately predict months ahead. LRF's have to make assumptions based on whats available at a set point in time.  And just as you've highlighted there were expectations for certain things to occur be it the MJO, AAM etc which haven't played ball. That's those variables which aren't foreseen at the time of the forecast. I perfectly understand what may have gone wrong and that's not the point, my point is that at the end of the day LRF's stand and fall by whether they were correct or not. I have already said that no one can criticize the work that goes into a LRF, you're misconstruing criticism of a forecast with criticism of those who made that LRF. No one is scoring cheap points in that way in here. We're all entitled to our own view of things, personally I don't believe in LRF's and have been a firm believer in the butterfly effect for as long as I've been interested in the weather. It maybe that science simply will not be able to solve this issue of accuracy in LRF, not because its not trying but its trying to solve an unsolvable puzzle.

[gottolovethisweather]

2 hours ago, gottolovethisweather said:

I haven't simply got the energy to even give you a short wave in response after tonight's outputs lacked potential but I agree with you about NOT looking past the reliable unless trend-spotting. I'll verify this post with the mods to see if it needs to go in the F.I'n bin next to the model fodder trough or whether it's a complete swear filter posting, before saying that winter is over, even if it never began for coldies. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I know it is bad practice to requote one's posts too often as tedium will set in for all readers, but I simply had to share this fascinating news with you all. 

If you take the initial letters of my highlighted words above, whilst leaving FI aside (often best practice) you will find it spells out "ESP" v (for versus) "FW". So now, I've worked out precisely how the rest of December and the rest of winter is to pan out!

We, therefore, have two choices. Either we simply use our Extra-Sensory-Perception, or alternatively, stick with the guy whose forum name goes by the initials FW.  

 

I knew the answer to winter 2016/17 was somewhere to be found, after all. 

Edited December 14, 2016 by gottolovethisweather

[Man With Beard]

Catacol - I agree with most of what you say but one thing that needs to be emphasised - just check those LRF modelled mean chart archives over the past two months for yourself. I assure you, many of the week 4 and even many of the week 3 mean charts turned out to be utter garbage across the whole northern hemisphere. Sorry, there's no polite way of putting it.

Edited December 14, 2016 by Man With Beard

[snowray]

3 hours ago, Northwest NI said:

The only thing that seems to verify is that which we want least.

Often seems to go like that.

But while the 18z rolls out from the boozer, how about a look at these two charts then?

The old BOM needs to smell the coffee, or could it have spotted a new trend?

Edited December 14, 2016 by snowray

[offerman]

1 hour ago, Stuie W said:

Your last paragraph is completely spot on, glad you said that, I find it difficult to read this forum sometimes.

These Super computers will never be able to get it spot on.  Also,  forecasters are just that .  They try to interpret what the computer models are showing and then put it out there for the public to see .  None of the forecasters are to blame .  Its mother nature .   Maybe all of these expected predictions but then models changing on a daily basis  is more chaotic than ever. 

 

 The patterns to sing over the years to show America getting more severe winters and Europe  getting milder winters .