Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

[shaky]

1 minute ago, carinthian said:

That run is the worst scenario, but think it will change tomorrow.

Carinthian any idea on how the ukmo 168 hours chart looks like this evening!!looked lole disrupting at 144 hours!!

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

Guys, I really wouldn't be too worried by what the GFS, ECM and UKMO models are showing just now; as others have said, the longer-term signals/teleconnections and what-have-you are currently 'at odds' with them (If I understand things correctly?)?

Given that the longer-range models, like those employed by the MetO, seem to be the more consistent, I feel like we ought to just 'bear with it' for the time being?

It might all come to nothing; but then, conversely, it might not...

Lmao! Longer range signals need to be consigned to the swear filter! The longer range models as we've seen from the weather delivered so far in December weren't upto much. It's clear so far that those longer range models have failed this winter. I'm done with them and will stick to finding signs of life within a more realistic timeframe.

[swfc]

10 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Guys, I really wouldn't be too worried by what the GFS, ECM and UKMO models are showing just now; as others have said, the longer-term signals/teleconnections and what-have-you are currently 'at odds' with them (If I understand things correctly?)?

Given that the longer-range models, like those employed by the MetO, seem to be the more consistent, I feel like we ought to just 'bear with it' for the time being?

It might all come to nothing; but then, conversely, it might not...

i was going to mention "a broken clock" then but anythings possible

I cant help but think tho after such a blocked autumn we may have had all our chances esp with some of the earlier attempts at gh ete.All will be revealed over the next 8weeks or so but all these background signals ete for some reason leave me like the current output;flat.

Edited December 14, 2016 by swfc

[Summer Sun]

4 minutes ago, shaky said:

Carinthian any idea on how the ukmo 168 hours chart looks like this evening!!looked lole disrupting at 144 hours!!

t168 hasn't updated yet

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Lmao! Longer range signals need to be consigned to the swear filter! The longer range models as we've seen from the weather delivered so far in December weren't upto much. It's clear so far that those longer range models have failed this winter. I'm done with them and will stick to finding signs of life within a more realistic timeframe.

For some reason, I won't go into details, I don't feel much like arguing with that, Nick.

[doghouse]

7 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

There would be snow in northern uk which would be welcome for the scottish ski centres.

And absolutely miserable for West central Scotland caught in the firing line of sleet and gales.....whilst trying to navigate X day visits. Also,can only lead to misery in here shortly aftward, with the usual 16 mean charts indicating let's see what 4 weeks hence brings. Not good

[booferking]

1 minute ago, Snowmut said:

 One small step for man,one giant step for snowmankind!

(NASA)

I seen that earlier and whats the stats for it like.

[weatherguy]

Oh lord.  Don't know if it's simply a horrific outlier or not yet, but the 12Z ECM has completely reversed the encouraging trends and sent my optimism into despair.  

SW-erly blowtorch and a particularly potent PV sat where we don't want it.  Grim stuff.  Pray for a good set of ensembles! 

[Frosty.]

3 minutes ago, doghouse said:

And absolutely miserable for West central Scotland caught in the firing line of sleet and gales.....whilst trying to navigate X day visits. Also,can only lead to misery in here shortly aftward, with the usual 16 mean charts indicating let's see what 4 weeks hence brings. Not good

Jeez there's no pleasing some people, the Ecm 12z shows our first proper blast of cold zonality which is much better than the stagnant mild settled bore fest we have had so far this winter!

[gottolovethisweather]

44 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Lmao! Longer range signals need to be consigned to the swear filter! The longer range models as we've seen from the weather delivered so far in December weren't upto much. It's clear so far that those longer range models have failed this winter. I'm done with them and will stick to finding signs of life within a more realistic timeframe.

 

1

 

I haven't simply got the energy to even give you a short wave in response after tonight's outputs lacked potential but I agree with you about NOT looking past the reliable unless trend-spotting. I'll verify this post with the mods to see if it needs to go in the F.I'n bin next to the model fodder trough or whether it's a complete swear filter posting, before saying that winter is over, even if it never began for coldies. 

Edited December 14, 2016 by gottolovethisweather

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Lmao! Longer range signals need to be consigned to the swear filter! The longer range models as we've seen from the weather delivered so far in December weren't upto much. It's clear so far that those longer range models have failed this winter. I'm done with them and will stick to finding signs of life within a more realistic timeframe.

I couldn't agree more Nick. Don't get me wrong, I do respect the knowledge of those who use teleconnections etc to predict at quite long range but something has gone wrong big style so far this winter. We were supposed to be in a cold spell by now but apparantly this is not likely now until the beginning of Jan! The ecm is a big culprit. It did exactly the same thing a few winter's back - persistently forecasting HLB only to put it back by a couple of weeks on each subsequent update. It feels like the carrot is constantly being dangled but we never get a sniff, let alone a bite!

[blizzard81]

5 minutes ago, booferking said:

I seen that earlier and whats the stats for it like.

Probably worse than navgem lol

[doghouse]

2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Jeez there's no pleasing some people, the Ecm 12z shows our first proper blast of cold zonality which is much better than the stagnant mild settled bore fest we have had so far this winter!

Suspect if that 10 day chart verifies  you may spent a considerable amount of time discussion yer much hated " mid mush",  Frosty. Be very careful what ye wish for.

[Scandinavian High.]

Hi with high pressure to the north east does this mean low pressure will go south east in to Southern Europe just can't see any low pressure going north east by looking at this .

[Summer Sun]

19 minutes ago, shaky said:

Carinthian any idea on how the ukmo 168 hours chart looks like this evening!!looked lole disrupting at 144 hours!!

t168 from UKMO is now out

[Fozfoster]

I'm going to say it's time to give the models a rest for a few days but I'm full of more sh*t than them !!

[Frosty.]

15 minutes ago, doghouse said:

Suspect if that 10 day chart verifies  you may spent a considerable amount of time discussion yer much hated " mid mush",  Frosty. Be very careful what ye wish for.

Folk in the north (snow fans) will be hoping for this, there is even a risk of snow on hills further south too..it would be a white christmas eve at least in parts of scotland..not so good for the south but great for the ski centres in Scotland who have had an absolutely miserable start to the winter season since that November cold snap..good luck to them I say, indeed, good luck to us all

Edited December 14, 2016 by Frosty.

[Chris K]

8 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

Hi with high pressure to the north east does this mean low pressure will go south east in to Southern Europe just can't see any low pressure going north east by looking at this .

I may be wrong but aren't these anomalies and therefore not the same as looking at surface pressure charts?

If so it is showing lower than average around Iceland and Greenland and whilst higher than average is to our North east, we'd more likely be affected by constant spells of unsettled weather moving in from the West/NW.

And with higher pressure across to the South of us into Europe...hmm.

Edited December 14, 2016 by Chris K

[swilliam]

24 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I couldn't agree more Nick. Don't get me wrong, I do respect the knowledge of those who use teleconnections etc to predict at quite long range but something has gone wrong big style so far this winter. We were supposed to be in a cold spell by now but apparantly this is not likely now until the beginning of Jan! The ecm is a big culprit. It did exactly the same thing a few winter's back - persistently forecasting HLB only to put it back by a couple of weeks on each subsequent update. It feels like the carrot is constantly being dangled but we never get a sniff, let alone a bite!

Actually most of the LRFs (I am talking about monthlies, EC46 etc.not direct correlations with MJO etc.) up to this point have been pretty good. They have been predicting general blocking (both MLB and HLB) and a lack of zonality have been the main message (as was shown earlier).I think you have to agree that we have effectively had no zonality for most of the autumn and so far all this winter. The fact that the blocks that have formed have not been in a place to give us any significant cold weather is unfortunate but this is what often happens (except for the spell in November). Blocking does not equal cold spell - just means it is more likely. Cuurently we are blocked and I think you would agree it is not currently cold or likely to be in the near future.

So the forecast chart provide by IF for the ECM ENS anomaly showed a significant change from climatology with a large +ve anomaly east and slightly north. So this would indicate that many members of the ENS had blocking solutions. However this does mean necessarily mean cold weather with piles of snow from -10 uppers in an easterly. It could equally mean we are back to where we just now with rather mild southerlies but dry weather. So you might think (and say) that it was a fail or bust of the LRF but in actual fact it would not be.

As a general point about these LRFs I would much rather see them showing potential blocking than either climatology or worse enhanced zonality. If they did either of the latter then we can be pretty sure it would likely verify and the chances of getting significant blocking would be low. I think the main point though is that you need to use them just as guide as to what is more probably rather than this is what is going to happen. If it is 60/40 more likely for blocking as opposed to zonality but in practice it turned out to be the latter would you consider this as a fail?

Edited December 14, 2016 by swilliam

[IDO]

We are heading for a few days of zonal; 5-7 maybe, from early next week? But it will not last as the PV is clearly restless this Winter and will be moving away from the Canadian region in due course.

What is unclear is what follows? Certainly the most likely scenario is the Azores wave to build again somewhere close to the UK, but after this reset will it be a return to the repeating pattern or something a little bit different? No clues from the GEFS yet, but by D14 I expect HP to be the trend again.

 

D10 & D16 means highlight this: 

As for the sinking high next week, it still remains finely balanced as to how unsettled the UK becomes; 50:50 roughly from an IMBY perspective, though the higher res runs currently going with full on zonal. The GEFS support a cooler NW'ly flow pre-Christmas, but nothing as unlikely as the 0z ECM came up with (no shock that was not repeated!). The GEFS on the same hymn sheet as the ECM for a quick return to milder SW'lies post Christmas.

All in all December clearly failed in the front loaded winter category. CET already heading for +2c above average and hard to imagine the final figure not being in that ball park. On to January now to see how that goes, but IMO the underlying pattern doesn't look too helpful for UK cold/snow so we need a nudge here or there, assuming we don't get much needed wholesale changes.

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, swilliam said:

Actually most of the LRFs (I am talking about monthlies, EC46 etc.not direct correlations with MJO etc.) up to this point have been pretty good. They have been predicting general blocking (both MLB and HLB) and a lack of zonality have been the main message (as was shown earlier).I think you have to agree that we have effectively had no zonality for most of the autumn and so far all this winter. The fact that the blocks that have formed have not been in a place to give us any significant cold weather is unfortunate but this is what happens (except for the spell in November). Blocking does not equal cold spell - just means it is more likely. Cuurently we are blocked and I think you would agree it is not currently cold or likely to be in the near future.

So the forecast chart provide by IF for the ECM ENS anomaly showed a significant change from climatology with a large +ve anomaly east and slightly north. So this would indicate that many members of the ENS had blocking solutions. However this does mean necessarily mean cold weather with piles of snow from -10 uppers in an easterly. It could equally mean we are back to where we just now. So you might say that it was fail or bust of the LRF but in actual it would not be.

As a general point about these LRFs I would much rather see them showing potential blocking than either climatology or worse enhanced zonality. If they did either of the latter then we can be pretty sure it would likely verify and the chances of getting significant blocking would be low. I think the main point though is that you need to use them just as guide as to what is more probably rather than this is what is going to happen. If it is 60/40 more likely for blocking as opposed to zonality but in practice it turned out to be the latter would you consider this as a fail?

In terms of a fail, I will be more precise. I was referring to the bullish ecm 46 which run after run forecast a block to our north west for Nov-Jan. Thus far this has just not materialsed.

[stewfox]

The last week of model watching have been largely predictable and disappointing.

For those looking for more detail…. dis….app…oint…ing

So reviewing the last 24hr

Pub rub was more around putting together rhyming Christmas carols related to the weather, so will leave that there. The high (mother in law) isn’t going nowhere.

Morning

Is that a ridge in the North East ? (wtf did that come from?).

The GFS 0Z in FI (FI as always) brings a -5 Isotherm down to south coast.

The ECM puts a serious cold finger of air heading into Europe at T192 (the finger is about 10 times the size of the UK).

Bitter cold building out east and ‘proper cold’ and from our north developing in that time frame as well and not that faux cold crap.

ECM for 24/12 has snow showers for everyone (but it’s not in the f*** reliable time frame)

But don’t bring the elderly and animals into your home yet as its only one run and we are seeing a reinvigorated Atlantic or are we ??

GFS 0z for 30/12 throws out wintery charts and wide spread snow, (love those T384 charts they tend to verify in summer in Saudi Arabia ie hot and sunny).

GFS, GEM and ECM do give 3 different options at T240 so ‘more runs needed’ but bank -7c uppers ECM 24/12

Afternoon

Slightly more amplification on GFS 6z cf GFS 0z but different to ECM

Most folk ask Santa to keep some high pressure to the north east to help angle the jet south east but you could still get cold zonal if that doesn’t happen (ie  4c and rain on Christmas day type stuff ,hooray )

Strong winds 100mph predicted 22/12 north west Scotland.

Folks post charts for xmas day showing 10c and rain. We don’t have enough confident how and when the Atlantic will break through hence wide divergence but before going to confused.com we have an announcement as clarity required.

And I quote “””” Current thinking for festive period via ENS is 60% likelihood HP remaining proximal to SE/E (more settled); more unsettled to NW/W.  Alternative is 40% probability more widely unsettled with cyclicity spreading across entire UK for Christmas, with resulting temps ranging normal to a bit below (showery; some wintry).””

Folkes google "cyclicity' and move on.

More discussion about taking long term outlook rather than knee jerk reactions to each run (but that’s the fun part ?)

If the Meto and GFS drop the high brings in other possibilities.

Evening (pre pub run)

Will UKMO sink the block in T120, GFs where has the block gone has she left?.

Don’t mention the Jet stream its powering up.

The GFS 12z remarkably similar to the 06z but shows more wide spread cold across Europe however for us is the blocking going to continue re D8?.

Are we going to get that storm 22/12 increased model support?

GFS 12z at 228 ie 24/12 shows marked temp contrast across UK (much colder in Scotland) time to visit your 7th cousin removed in Scotland ?.

GEFS 12z mean trends unsettled from T+168 D7/8 as pressure drops we see the return of the Atlantic (well its always been there but you know what I mean). Will it go east will it go to Iceland will it go into Europe, will the block hold for a while, many unanswered questions.

ECM this morning showed a good ridge to the north east and a good flow from the northwest but that ridge lasted as long as the May Fly and without it the Jet won’t go south east.

NASA (that lovely model) shows -8c (850s) over much of the uk for 24/12 but the word ‘south-westerly’ starts to appear and the ECM starts to get a kicking for giving hope this morning.

We’re trending to a unsettled spell over xmas period and snow over northern hills. It’s probably going to be a drive to your nearest hill post turkey and keep your brolley for 22/12.

Cold 2/10 (It was 3/10 this morning)

A mixed day for model watching

Key today what is going to happen with this high (mother in law) been around far too long. If it goes does it really go or hide somewhere where else and will it cause further trouble down the line.

If lingers or puts up a fight against the barrel bomb of the Atlantic this could have an influence on the nature of the perception around xmas. "Glad you got some", may not be just for people living on the top of Ben Nevis but without a ridge it may just be that.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited December 14, 2016 by stewfox

[bluearmy]

52 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Incredible differences with regards to heights to our north east on the 12z ecm compared to the 00z run. 12z run please, please do not verify! That comment from BA this morning describing it as poppycock to say zoneality will set in for for 4 weeks is vivid in my mind after watching that ecm run lol. I have known zoneality to last much longer than 4 weeks!

Poppycock refers to anyone saying they know for sure that zonality will set in for 4/6 weeks 

it might .......

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Poppycock refers to anyone saying they know for sure that zonality will set in for 4/6 weeks 

it might .......

Well, I certainly wouldn't be shocked if it did lol.

[carinthian]

46 minutes ago, shaky said:

Carinthian any idea on how the ukmo 168 hours chart looks like this evening!!looked lole disrupting at 144 hours!!

Hi Shaky, it looks like the Northern Half of Britain including Eire will be in the North Atlantic zonal flow, whilst Central and Southeast England and Wales will still have a continental source. Much along the Met Office forecast for that period. However, this particular chart does change quite a lot with its synoptic progs within the 144-168t period. Maybe it might show a more progressive chart in the morning along the lines of the GFS and for our sanity sake, hopefully not the latest ECM op, that being the worse scenario for a mild sweep with only short cold interludes up North. Still , I remain in the camp of the block from what I can see.

C