Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

[northwestsnow]

9 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM day 7 sees the deep vortex tightly wound up & a very strong +VE AO, very 2015 esque - 

Can we get a smidge or amplification at 192 to squeeze that polar air SE

What an utterly horrid chart Steve.. .as you say, 2015 Esq.. 

Edited December 14, 2016 by northwestsnow

[radiohead]

Regarding that low on the 22nd, roughly there is pretty good agreement on it's position between the 12Z GFS and 12Z ECM which is impressive at 192 hours. Worth keeping an eye on as it could bomb close to or over the UK.

 

Edited December 14, 2016 by radiohead

[nick sussex]

I think theres some concern here that a shortwave is going to run east be fed by the PV and explode. Its these types of set ups that can bring these fast developing features with very high winds.

[January Snowstorm]

As I pointed out last night,models are now firming up on a very unsettled lead into Christmas  (and not just for Ireland) stormy could be the highlight around the 22nd. As for Christmas day we definitely have a shout at a white one albeit transient 

[gottolovethisweather]

3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM day 7 sees the deep vortex tightly wound up & a very strong +VE AO, very 2015 esque - 

Can we get a smidge or amplification at 192 to squeeze that polar air SE

 

Thanks, Steve, something model related. Not that you'll get many likes for that chart and your valuable analysis, nope you've got one and it's a predictable one, lol.

[Johnp]

2 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

As I pointed out last night,models are now firming up on a very unsettled lead into Christmas  (and not just for Ireland) stormy could be the highlight around the 22nd. As for Christmas day we definitely have a shout at a white one albeit transient 

You pointed it out the night before that as well.

No-one likes a 'told you so'!

[Summer Sun]

Good agreement now for things to turn stormy next week maybe cold enough for some snow on high ground in the north

[Frosty.]

6 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

As I pointed out last night,models are now firming up on a very unsettled lead into Christmas  (and not just for Ireland) stormy could be the highlight around the 22nd. As for Christmas day we definitely have a shout at a white one albeit transient 

It's not set in stone yet, we could still end up with a typical nw / se split as per met office update with the south and east doing quite well for fine weather due to high pressure influence from mainland europe.

Edited December 14, 2016 by Frosty.

[gottolovethisweather]

2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Good agreement now for things to turn stormy next week maybe cold enough for some snow on high ground in the north

 

With the ECM jumping on board from D6 or thereabouts, I think a three to four-day drier spell post-Friday, is looking a fair bet for most away from the far NW. As to next week becoming stormy or actively low pressure fixated, I'd say a 60/40 percent chance right now. 

[nick sussex]

Without that high pressure to the ne shown on the ECM 00hrs run theres nothing to force the jet se'wards. That really was important for those looking for a more festive Christmas. This looks like pretty underwhelming output, topped off now by the possibilities of a shortwave formed in the sub Tropics hitting much colder air and turning into a hideous bomb, vile!

Overall a very disappointing evening for coldies. The ECM this morning briefly raised interest but unfortunately in recent weeks its only its rubbish output that seems to verify, anything remotely interesting hits the buffers quickly.

[Summer Sun]

An unsettled end to ECM

[Northwest NI]

The only thing that seems to verify is that which we want least.

[swfc]

Tbh im struggling to find one positive on this evenings ecm and gfs 12z

ecm this morning showed a good ridge to the north east and a good flow from the northwest.we now have a serious pv fire up,heigths gone to the north east and a flat jet at ten days!!!! whats to like????

[Ventnor Viking]

The last 3 frames of the ECM this evening do have fairly cool to cold 850 hPa temps as seen below. There is a good chance of unsettled weather coming in towards the Christmas period. its definitely worth watching to see if the jet pushes further south and to see if the orientation moves to a more NW/SE then precipitation is more likely to start turning wintry.

Edited December 14, 2016 by ShaftsburySnow

[shaky]

That ecm is just horrendous and theres nothing else to describe it!!its different as early as 72 hours with high pressure not as robust over the uk compared to the gfs and ukmo!!

[Frosty.]

A spell of cold zonality towards the end of the Ecm 12z which would be very welcome as it would be the first cold zonal weather of the winter!some of us would see snow from this, mainly in the north and not just on hills.

Edited December 14, 2016 by Frosty.

[nick sussex]

4 minutes ago, ShaftsburySnow said:

The last 3 frames of the ECM this evening do have fairly cool to cold 850 hPa temps as seen below. There is a good chance of unsettled weather coming in towards the Christmas period. its definitely worth watching to see if the jet pushes further south and to see if the orientation moves to a more NW/SE then precipitation is more likely to start turning wintry.

Unfortunately you need a trigger to get that jet angle, either a lot more amplification upstream or high pressure to the ne  which helps to lock low pressure over central Europe. Neither look on the cards in the shorter term going off tonights outputs. We do need a very big shake up in the NH pattern otherwise we're going to be feeding off scraps.

[Summer Sun]

 

[swfc]

Just now, Frosty. said:

A spell of cold zonality towards the end of the Ecm 12z which would be very welcome as it would be the first cold zonal weather of the winter!

tbh frosty id rather it be mild and bright!!! wind and cold rain dont really do it for me mate esp over xmas ete!!!

[Frosty.]

Just now, swfc said:

tbh frosty id rather it be mild and bright!!! wind and cold rain dont really do it for me mate esp over xmas ete!!!

There would be snow in northern uk which would be welcome for the scottish ski centres.

[Ventnor Viking]

Just now, nick sussex said:

Unfortunately you need a trigger to get that jet angle, either a lot more amplification upstream or high pressure to the ne  which helps to lock low pressure over central Europe. Neither look on the cards in the shorter term going off tonights outputs. We do need a very big shake up in the NH pattern otherwise we're going to be feeding off scraps.

Hi Nick,

I agree that we do need a trigger. However what is clear at the moment from the previous run is that both agree that a hit of unsettled weather is due but both don't agree on the HP situation as the HP on the 0z run is very different to that of the 12z. This indicates that there is a probable chance of some changes aloft as there as some quite big differences with regards to HP position from run to run.

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, shaky said:

That ecm is just horrendous and theres nothing else to describe it!!its different as early as 72 hours with high pressure not as robust over the uk compared to the gfs and ukmo!!

Guys, I really wouldn't be too worried by what the GFS, ECM and UKMO models are showing just now; as others have said, the longer-term signals/teleconnections and what-have-you are currently 'at odds' with them (If I understand things correctly?)?

Given that the longer-range models, like those employed by the MetO, seem to be the more consistent, I feel like we ought to just 'bear with it' for the time being?

It might all come to nothing; but then, conversely, it might not...

[Frosty.]

520 dam thicknesses in the north on tonight's Ecm 12z, the Scottish skiing industry would welcome this with open arms, a blast of cold zonality with plenty of snow for higher ground in the north.

[carinthian]

11 minutes ago, shaky said:

That ecm is just horrendous and theres nothing else to describe it!!its different as early as 72 hours with high pressure not as robust over the uk compared to the gfs and ukmo!!

That run is the worst scenario, but think it will change tomorrow.

[blizzard81]

Incredible differences with regards to heights to our north east on the 12z ecm compared to the 00z run. 12z run please, please do not verify! That comment from BA this morning describing it as poppycock to say zoneality will set in for for 4 weeks is vivid in my mind after watching that ecm run lol. I have known zoneality to last much longer than 4 weeks!