Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

[Snowman.]

Blocking is gone from the UK but it has shop to the east. Wonder if it can influence the Atlantic.

[radiohead]

12Z GEM at T240

 

[Scandinavian High.]

4 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

t198 shows the storm is further east quicker on the 12z compared to the 06z

12z                                                               06z

Take that with a pinch of salt blocking to hold on for longer models being to progressive.

[Ravelin]

2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

High pressure certainly closer by on this run backs up the mets thoughts of a settled Christmas in the south

12z                                                               06z

What you meant to say was cold and settled...

With cold rain incoming....

[Seasonality]

More widespread cold unsettled air across Europe on the 12z. 

 

[Geordiesnow]

19 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

UKMO looks like it will sink the block shortly after T144

GFS doesn't even get to forming a block at all, now - what a change from the past few days, where have the 1050mb highs gone!

I like hearing about the LRFs, but it just doesn't seem wise to look 30 days ahead when there is significant uncertainty within the 10 day period.

Got to say, only the GFS was forecasting such a large area of high pressure(1050MB) whereas the other models were more modest in this and besides, the block was over Europe and I can't say I have ever seen a 1050MB Euro high before.

I also seen the trend of strengthning the Northern arm of the jet by the models also with deep purples over Greenland, the question now will be, will that jet be strong enough to remove that deep cold block over Western Russia or will we see something like the ECM where the block is fighting back and could end up in a more interesting place? You have to say this morning's ECM is a complete outlier and I'll be shocked if the 12Z run is anything like this morning's run but who knows. As I said in my post this morning though, the chances of a deep low heading our way is increasing and the trends does seem to be towards more mobile weather. Infact, i would love for a deep low to occur, it is winter afterall and winter does involve very windy spells aswell as wintry spells so a spell of cold zonal weather will be welcomed by me. Not guranteed to come off of course and blocking over Russia could well affect our weather also.

[geordiekev]

40 minutes ago, Ravelin said:

Still major differences between the UKMO & GFS at t120...

What's interesting in most of the evolutions is the displaced azores High out into the Atlantic. This increases the probability of an Atlantic/Greeny high once any amplification occurs between low systems zipping through. Seems to be how most of the recent wintry spells have appeared in past few years. Just a case of playing the waiting game,  but things looking up imo.

[knocker]

6 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

High pressure certainly closer by on this run backs up the mets thoughts of a settled Christmas in the south

12z                                                               06z

You are a wag SS

[Summer Sun]

1 minute ago, knocker said:

You are a wag SS

 

What does it show during daylight hours?

Netweathers charts are updating very slowly again tonight

[I Cumbria Marra I]

3 hours ago, radiohead said:

I presume he is talking about mountain conditions.

 

A lot of low ground in Scotland as well

[Gael_Force]

9 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

High pressure certainly closer by on this run backs up the mets thoughts of a settled Christmas in the south

12z                                                               06z

It will never be settled (as in dry) where the greens and yellows meet.

[knocker]

1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

What does it show during daylight hours?

Netweathers charts are updating very slowly again tonight

[Snowman.]

Russian high shows its face.

 

[Seasonality]

2 minutes ago, SN0WM4N said:

Russian high shows its face.

 

Beat me to it! But yes, very different in that part of the world on this run.

[Summer Sun]

Quite a difference between the NW and SW

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

ECM first hinted at this 2 days ago. The fact it came out with its 00z run made me sit up.   With GFS joining I feel we have a way forward.  I think the stormier the Xmas period the more I go for it.  Could be a notable weather period.    Interested that GFS is continuing the theme, let's see where ECM takes us.  But even with today it will need to continue to t48 for it to be believed I fancy.....and that's just by me 

BFTP

[booferking]

Quite a few ens showing a serious storm 22nd like the ecm earlier some of them are off the chart far from boring.  Boxing day storm 1998 anybody we also got 3 inches of snow after the cold front passed through.

Edited December 14, 2016 by booferking

[Singularity]

It's been a weird old day with the models so far - the 00z runs mostly blowing away the ridge a lot sooner than had looked likely just 12 hours before but UKMO not so keen and now bringing back a chilly continental flow for early next week.

Despite GFS' progressive mid-range, we still end up seeing signs of 'the block fights back' as Fergie / the Met Office inferred from the most recent of the GloSea5 and EC46 updates, which seems a reasonable take on things if we assume some modest Pacific MJO activity. Raw (not adjusted for bias) ECM ens. still notably lacking in this respect as of the mid-afternoon update, modified version more keen but still a bit slower than GFS. Noteworthy that both adjusted products have come together on a gain in amplitude in phase 6, which could be ideal for forcing HLB where we want it provided there's then propagation to 7-8-1.

  

Alas, there was little movement in the observed MJO over the past 24 hours form which to extract clues.

[Summer Sun]

It's certainly looking rather stormy over Christmas at the moment

Just after Christmas the high over Europe has another go

12z

06z

Edited December 14, 2016 by Summer Sun

[Gowon]

That Russian ridge is looking impressive on the NH view..

[Summer Sun]

A cold Christmas eve for Scotland and possibly the far north of England but elsewhere it's fairly mild

[Seasonality]

And we end with another ridge of high pressure over the uk!

[Summer Sun]

After a stormy Christmas, we end the year on a calm note with light southerly winds

Edited December 14, 2016 by Summer Sun

[Gowon]

4 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

And we end with another ridge of high pressure over the uk!

Which is exactly what Ian F has been saying - zonal for a little while then back to blocked.

Edited December 14, 2016 by D.V.R

[Paul_1978]

4 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

After a stormy Christmas, we end the year on a calm note with light southerly winds

We *may* end the year on a calm note with light southerly winds.