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Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

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53 minutes ago, weirpig said:

I dont know if anyone has posted any commemnts on the Gfs Parra   but its certainly showing blocking.  Just wish the opp would follow suit

gfsnh-0-264.png

This is what I imagine when I read the Meto Long range and is a very strong possibility IMO.  Not great for snow lovers but hopefully some sunny cool frosty days like we have had recently and the chance for something more interesting further down the line if the high goes North West or North East

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8 minutes ago, MidnightSnow said:

Do you have these particular charts from a month ago? I'm just interested to know if there's been much change. Thanks

I'm afraid not

Sorry

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1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

This is what I imagine when I read the Meto Long range and is a very strong possibility IMO.  Not great for snow lovers but hopefully some sunny cool frosty days like we have had recently and the chance for something more interesting further down the line if the high goes North West or North East

Yep  the control is very similar aswell  keeps blocking right thorugh to the end of the run,  not amazing uppers but will feel cold 

gensnh-0-1-384.png

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And, once again, this morning's GFS 06Z looks more than a tad underwhelming...

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2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

And, once again, this morning's GFS 06Z looks more than a tad underwhelming...

Not sure there are colder than this morning set and Blocking is in a fair few.

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2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

And, once again, this morning's GFS 06Z looks more than a tad underwhelming...

yes pete,  However some of the ensembles now are starting to show blocking  including the control. Hopefully we will start to see this being shown soon on the opp.

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Well the ECM dangles a carrot!

Its reverted more to its output of a few days ago with better trough disruption, overall the models agree on those two PV lobes elongating north/south and the pattern upto T144hrs, the ECM almost delivers but fails because we don't have another shortwave cutting the link between that nose of high pressure circled red and the weaker ridge to the north in black. The black arrow shows where we want the energy to go from that upstream troughing. Instead what happens the troughing sends energy ne and then theres only one way the highs going to go by toppling and sinking.

 

ECH1-144.gif

 

Trough disruption and shortwave ejection is better handled in general by the ops upto T144hrs because of their higher resolution, that's often why ensembles can look lukewarm until closer in.

Its notable that  the big 3 models have picked up on this signal today and so its whether this is a one off over reaction or if theres still more mileage in this.

Theres little middle ground in this set up because energy over the top means a totally different evolution after that. So theres an opportunity around T144hrs, I'd still put this as just a low probability because the upstream pattern flattens out just when we needed it to hold onto that amplification.

We'll see this evening.

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So it looks like we should be looking for height rises to our north east as opposed to the north atlantic. Does anybody know why the emphasis has changed from the north atlantic towards more of a scandi height rise?

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Just had a browse of the 0z ECMWF, and check out Wednesday 14th/Thursday 15th...

ecmwf wed.pngecmwf thurs.pngTemp.png

Given the extreme temperature contrasts, I'm not surprised it has deepened so quickly! Some drop of possibly 40mb in 24 hours. 

Now that is some "Explosive Cyclogenesis"

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The Gfs 6z shows the first mild spell of the winter almost upon us and it lasts a while with temps in the 11/13c range, occasionally a little cooler / milder and it also looks like being breezy / windy at times with some rain but most of the rain in the north with some decent fine and pleasant weather in the south. Further ahead shows an unsettled start to next week but then a north / south split as high pressure builds in close to the south but low pressure to the nw / n keeps northern uk in a more zonal atlantic flow but we would all see changeable weather at times through low res.

hgt500-1000.png

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Edited by Frosty.
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14 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

I'm beginning to wonder if we've been led up the garden path of all garden paths! The GFS OP continues to underwhelm! It's like being a spurs fan I'd imagine, so much potential but rarely delivering! 

I'm wondering whether we might have been collectively leading ourselves 'up the garden path'? After all, if the PV lobes end up where they look like ending up, we'll be sat slap, bang between them...with not much to look forward to, barring one-or-two spells of still, cold and anticyclonic weather.? And, although mostly snowless, such a scenario would still be broadly in line with current MetO suggestions...I think!

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8 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

I'm beginning to wonder if we've been led up the garden path of all garden paths! The GFS OP continues to underwhelm! It's like being a spurs fan I'd imagine, so much potential but rarely delivering! 

sounds like it but that is the perils of long range forecasting ,so a period of mild coming up ,then possibly the atlantic firing up but still whether we get deep lows next week [week monday 12th ]all depends on positioning of any euro hi . Recent met off update to me points to euro high rather than high pressure to our north ,but really looking past two weeks  is a mine field ,lets hope some of these Enns postage stamps etc are going to play in our favour ,So lets get the atlantic fired up and move on a bit who knows whats around the corner [over the horizon ] it could all suddenly fall in our favour , lets chill out ,STellas all round sausage bap for me , cheers gang .:cold::drinks:

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24 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

It just occurred to me, the GFS parallel rarely gets a mention on here. It seems to be showing more in line with the Meto longer range forecasts. They seem to have been ignoring the recent GFS Op runs. Here, for example, is the 240hrs chart from the parallel-

gfsnh-0-240-4.png

Now i'm not saying this just because it looks better (even though it does) but shouldn't we be taking more notice? considering it will become the operational run in May next year.

Bobby - the met office will only take note of the gfs op in rare circumstances (perhaps if mogreps was in disagreement with ec and it's own model ) and generally at shortish range. perhaps the new version currently running in parallel will prove to be a worthwhile tool for the mid range.

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2 hours ago, bluearmy said:

It really shouldn't surprise anyone if a gfs op picks a stellar run at some point today 

with a fair proportion of the ens showing such solutions recently, it would be odd if it didn't 

 

I think today has to be the day, BA. If one were to take the last 20 GFS op runs, you'd get a very different picture to any of the ensemble runs. If the situation carries on, I'd have to assume the more sensitive op runs are picking up on something the less sensitive ensembles are not.

Encouraging to see the parallel trying to dive lows to our SW, though.

Edited by Man With Beard
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9 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Bobby - the met office will only take note of the gfs op in rare circumstances (perhaps if mogreps was in disagreement with ec and it's own model ) and generally at shortish range. perhaps the new version currently running in parallel will prove to be a worthwhile tool for the mid range.

Hi BA, I know it's not used as a main tool but I'm sure it's given good consideration by the Meto. Either way, it does seem to be more in line with their forecast. If that is the case, shouldn't we (as forum amateurs) be taking more notice. I suppose the question would be "is it verifying better than the current Op?" If so, then we should be.

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2 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

Hi BA, I know it's not used as a main tool but I'm sure it's given good consideration by the Meto. Either way, it does seem to be more in line with their forecast. If that is the case, shouldn't we (as forum amateurs) be taking more notice. I suppose the question would be "is it verifying better than the current Op?" If so, then we should be.

Anything past 10 days changes so often, you need to ask yourself is it just by chance that the two matched up this time.

 

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5 minutes ago, jvenge said:

Anything past 10 days changes so often, you need to ask yourself is it just by chance that the two matched up this time.

 

Of course that could be the case. However, the chart I posted was day 10. That is part of my point though, I don't really know because I  (like many others) haven't been taking much notice. Has it been merrily churning out accurate charts and we've missed it? Or not...

GFSP or not GFSP? That is the question.....

Edited by bobbydog

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7 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

Hi BA, I know it's not used as a main tool but I'm sure it's given good consideration by the Meto. Either way, it does seem to be more in line with their forecast. If that is the case, shouldn't we (as forum amateurs) be taking more notice. I suppose the question would be "is it verifying better than the current Op?" If so, then we should be.

Aye, bobby, I think we should. And that ought to apply to all of its runs, and not just those that tell us all what we want to hear...Not that anyone would ever do that?:D

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15 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

I think today has to be the day, BA. If one were to take the last 20 GFS op runs, you'd get a very different picture to any of the ensemble runs. If the situation carries on, I'd have to assume the more sensitive op runs are picking up on something the less sensitive ensembles are not.

Encouraging to see the parallel trying to dive lows to our SW, though.

Doesn't the GFS ensemble run at the same resolution as the op, unlike ecmwf where the ensemble runs at half the resolution? 

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4 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

Doesn't the GFS ensemble run at the same resolution as the op, unlike ecmwf where the ensemble runs at half the resolution? 

no , I think they are at 35km. the op is 13km.  will be less horizontal layers too.

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7 minutes ago, Banbury said:

I'm starting to realise that blocking in favour of wintry conditions is looking less likely ( for December ) , I think the best we are going to see is a block over us with frosty / foggy conditions keeping temps down .

I'm now looking at January I'm afraid

 

EDIT

Just looked in the Media thread on TWO and there is talk of unsettled conditions 'possibly' returning in the NY , so that rules a block out as well

 

Of course all miles off and things can change very quickly , but at the moment we are waiting for the bus that never comes...................it seems

There is simply to much energy in the Atlantic and pretty much zero in the way of blocking highs to force enough energy south gooner, nothing i have seen in the NWP for the last numbet of days changes my opinion.The ecm this morning looks the most likely at 144 but again at the critical juncture the northern arm kicks in.Thats not an emotive reaction, thats just how it is.

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The GEFS 6z mean indicates more in the way of high pressure or at least ridging by the second half of the month and consequently temperatures start to fall, eventually below average due to surface cold, frost and fog.

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Edited by Frosty.
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