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Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

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6 minutes ago, feno13 said:

The question is what do the other 26 members show . 

And most importantly, do they show the end of the SCEuro high pressure. This has really stuffed our Turkey over the last few weeks!

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The drift towards some Atlantic amplification end week 2 continues on both the eps and GEFS in conjunction with the broad scrussian becoming sceuro trough backing slowly west. 

how that transpires on the ground away from a mean/anomoly is a decent envelope to begin the new year for coldies but it doesn't guarantee anything just yet. 

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4 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

And most importantly, do they show the end of the SCEuro high pressure. This has really stuffed our Turkey over the last few weeks!

The sceuro high is trending towards a sceuro trough for early 2017. whether that verifies or whether the euro heights hang on is another question! 

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What is "Scrussion" and "Sceuro" please? I never see these terms mentioned anywhere other than on this forum!

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2 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

What is "Scrussion" and "Sceuro" please? I never see these terms mentioned anywhere other than on this forum!

I guess Scandinavian/Russian or Scandinavian/Euro

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What a difference 12 hours makes

19:00 Saturday

60-778UK.GIF?22-6

07:00 Sunday

72-778UK.GIF?22-6

Close to the mid teens in the SE corner early afternoon

78-778UK.GIF?22-6

Colder air filtering down from the north Sunday night

84-778UK.GIF?22-6

Edited by Summer Sun
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5 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

What a difference 12 hours makes

19:00 Saturday

60-778UK.GIF?22-6

07:00 Sunday

72-778UK.GIF?22-6

14c on the map now

78-778UK.GIF?22-6

Rtavn10817.gif

And straight back to this for Boxing Day

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Gefs clusters at the end do show some Atlantic ridging with the largest cluster 35% showing a trough heading se into Europe so a lowering of heights over the continent .

17010612_2200_01.gif

however the rest are flatter with Euro heights and a more westerly flow off the Atlantic.

Link.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cslp&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

Edited by phil nw.
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Just now, Banbury said:

Rtavn10817.gif

And straight back to this for Boxing Day

 

Yep how ironic the mild blip falls on Christmas day either side of the 25th looks cooler

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15 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

gfs-0-240.png

If any one missed this morning Parallel run it shows a classic toppler for NYD.

It seems to me like the gfs p is the new version of cfs

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Interesting,  WAA and Greeny high developing, can it hold I wonder.

IMG_3820.PNG

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1 minute ago, Banbury said:

gfsnh-0-222.png?6

Could have an early Northerly from this

The problem is still the darn Euro heights. They need to do one! Well outstayed it's welcome, which was about 24 hours, TOPS!

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2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Interesting,  WAA and Greeny high developing, can it hold I wonder.

IMG_3820.PNG

Those are some strong heights over Europe...still. I get the feeling that is going to be the bane of this winter...blocking where we don't want it!!

Edited by Chris K
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The question is can we build on the Amplification into greenland run by run as we have really struggled to keep a good trend going this winter.

GFSOPEU06_240_1.png

Edited by booferking
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4 minutes ago, Chris K said:

Those are some strong heights over Europe...still. I get the feeling that is going to be the bane of this winter...blocking where we don't want it!!

No heights now 

IMG_3821.PNG

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A credible 06z given Ian's post yesterday about possible ridge with high west of Ireland. Would like to see it a bit further west so there is more chance of snow showers. 

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A northerly to start 2017

gfs-0-252.png?6

The high out west soon moves back in

gfs-0-276.png?6gfs-0-300.png?6

Cold under the high too

gfs-1-276.png?6gfs-1-300.png?6gfs-1-324.png?6

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Very temporary lowering of heights unfortunately, they soon bounce back :wallbash:

IMG_4637.PNG

an excuse for a low in the med. which is nice :whistling:

Edited by karlos1983
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Yes that low on 1st Jan just off the east US coast and SW of Greenland, barrels straight through Greenland rather than west of it, killing the fledgling high and sending the blocking back east and over the UK.....again! Need more amplitude and less energy in the northern arm of the jet.

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06Z

25th December

Mass influx to Haltwistle?

1prectypeuktopo.png

 

NW Scotland gets a good blast Boxing Day

prectypeuktopo.png

Edited by Iceaxecrampon
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At day 7 with see differences with the position of the Euro high between GFS and ECM which will affect surface temperatures across the UK.

GFS has more of a SW flow with Atlantic trying to make inroads.

h850t850eu.png

This chart above is likely to give above average temperatures for the time of year.

ECM shows the high closer to the UK with winds more S/SE so despite the warm uppers the surface temperatures are likely to be cooler with risk of frost and fog.

ecmt850.168.png

Further into FI we see the GFS and the GFS Para singing from the same hymn sheet with regards to possible height rises in the Atlantic giving a brief cold shot around the New Year.

 

h850t850eu.pngh850t850eu.png

Whilst not a complete outlier the GFS OP is one of the coldest runs at this time frame.

graphe_ens3_tzm6.gif

The ECM does show a small rise in pressure in the Atlantic for around that time frame but nowhere near as good as the GFS and its hard to see how we could get a decent cold shot from there.

ecmt850.240.png

In an ideal world I would like to see ECM verifying at day 7 so we can have below average temperatures with frost and fog, and then across the GFS for an Atlantic ridge with a Northerly, however we live in the UK where if there's an opportunity for us to be warmer we always seem to get that option :p

Edited by vizzy2004
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