Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Agreed, even when the high builds in it stays chilly..I just want winter like temperatures, surely not too much to ask for is it?

Fri 23rd looks chilly Frosty, a break in the zonality! could be sunny as well, cold high that

[IDO]

6 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Agreed, even when the high builds in it stays chilly..I just want winter like temperatures, surely not too much to ask for is it?

Early days, but Christmas Day looks more likely to be quite pleasant. SE about 80% chance dry: here

2m max temps look above average for the SE/S/SW: here

Less certainty re Boxing Day, 50:50 at the moment but again if there is no rain max temp look good.

[Frosty.]

10 minutes ago, IDO said:

Early days, but Christmas Day looks more likely to be quite pleasant. SE about 80% chance dry: here

2m max temps look above average for the SE/S/SW: here

Less certainty re Boxing Day, 50:50 at the moment but again if there is no rain max temp look good.

Hmm not what I was hoping for..oh well it is winter after all!

[A.J]

1 hour ago, Seasonality said:

No one is being lippy. You were questioning why charts showing precipitation 7 days away were being posted in light of them not being reliable and not fitting with your own interpretation. I answered you, we look at a day ahead as well as a week ahead. It is all part of the the thread. A 7 day precipitation chart shows a solution generated by the model so is perfectly valid to show here. You need to calm down a bit. This isn't a pub at throwing out time and I'm not going to fight you or engage in bickering. And if being clever means having a calm, logical discussion then I am guilty as charged.

Just to add and hopefully to close this particular discussion, of course posting precipitation charts from any time frame with accompanying text is model discussion, no problems with that at all, but it should be posted with the caveat that precipitation charts at T168 are honestly about as much use as mammary glands on fish and are about as accurate as me attempting to hit double 20 on a dartboard having consumed enough alcohol to sink an aircraft carrier.........just being honest! 

[mhielte]

16 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Hmm not what I was hoping for..oh well it is winter after all!

Good job you live in West Yorkshire then! Potential wintry showers depending on your elevation.

[Seasonality]

47 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

Just to add and hopefully to close this particular discussion, of course posting precipitation charts from any time frame with accompanying text is model discussion, no problems with that at all, but it should be posted with the caveat that precipitation charts at T168 are honestly about as much use as mammary glands on fish and are about as accurate as me attempting to hit double 20 on a dartboard having consumed enough alcohol to sink an aircraft carrier.........just being honest! 

I'll drink to that 

[Snowy L]

3 hours ago, West is Best said:

Well now. Some will be disappointed in the short to medium term 'downgrade' on the 6z. But synoptically it's an interesting development, with the easterly block rebuilding. FI has lots of potential.

I still think we could see some very interesting runs in the next few days.

We've had a lot of potential since October now, but the story of Autumn and early winter has been abundant mid-lattitude blocking with zero HLB and I don't see any reason why that will change. Just another awful winter we have to brave through until we reach solar minimum, hopefully next year.

[sundog]

22 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

We've had a lot of potential since October now, but the story of Autumn and early winter has been abundant mid-lattitude blocking with zero HLB and I don't see any reason why that will change. Just another awful winter we have to brave through until we reach solar minimum, hopefully next year.

I think you could well be right. We will probably have to wait for solar min to get anything decent considering how our climate has changed. Hopefully by the early 2020s our winters will improve for cold prospects due to the sun because other then that our winters are probably as good as dead OVERALL regards proper cold spells etc imo

Edited December 17, 2016 by sundog

[Summer Sun]

Looking windy on Christmas day

[frosty ground]

Bit of a widespread storm on this run

[Summer Sun]

Still differences between UKMO and GFS

[Frosty.]

Nice to see some parts of the uk have a chance of snow towards christmas eve and overnight into the big day on the Gfs 12z...and a cold start to xmas day!

Edited December 17, 2016 by Frosty.

[frosty ground]

The 12z GFS is a good run for the Scottish ski industry with pressure lower over Europe and lows getting across the UK

[SMU]

Afternoon All

Nothing of real interest in the models today, as expected really - a bit of modified cold - but not any proper cold zonality as the low pressure isnt anchored to the North of the UK- Theres probably a couple of days around xmas with 6-12 hour windows for wintryness in the NW / NI & scotland @ elevation -

We are now seeing the next 5-7 days of peak zonal winds - circa 58 M/S at the top, thats only 2-3 off the record & HIGHER than 2015-

AO Peaking towards + 5 & if we go over 5 it will be a 1 in approx 10 year event-

Plus 4

20/01/1957  +5.07
28/02/1967  +4.30
02/12/1979   +5.04
08/01/1983  +4.42
11/01/1989   +5.29
09/02/1990  +5.14
17/12/1991    +4.70
14/01/1993   +5.24
05/01/2005   +4.70
24/01/2008   +4.5
02/12/2011    +4.35

In short summary then - other than a bit modified cold from the NW allign your expectations to something very low until the new year.

CFS still bullish on SSW event however thats now more towards the end of Jan-

Wave 2 activity will be low until the new year --

So sit tight & hope however its looking pretty grim ATM-

S

 

 

[Frosty.]

3 minutes ago, Blizzard 63 said:

One word for gfs 12z not good for coldies 

At least there's snow on the map for the first time this winter!

[frosty ground]

Another storm on its way developing out West 

 

[Summer Sun]

A cold start to Christmas day but a mild end

Then boxing day it's a mild start and a colder end

[Blizzard 63]

 If you on a hill up north yes Not good for southern central England I'm fast given up on this winter 

[frosty ground]

Just now, Blizzard 63 said:

 If you on a hill up north yes Not good for southern central England I'm fast given up on this winter 

Then find the right thread to post in.....#notthisone

[Mucka]

Some unusual interpretations of this mornings ECM ensembles. They show zonal for the most part with temps around average, alternating milder/cooler as troughs pass through. There is a small cluster that go for something slightly cooler than average from the 28th but there is no cold signal that I can see.

The big day looks likely to have around average temps at the moment, could be a little milder or cooler depending on positioning of low pressure. There is a good deal more chance of it being notable for storminess rather than whiteness.

Thereafter no real sign of an early pattern change back to something more blocked, maybe end of Dec start of January we may get more amplification again?

[Frosty.]

At least we are seeing a change from the utterly tedious mild benign start to winter. Midweek sees the change and frankly I'm looking forward to some active weather for a change!

[Iceaxecrampon]

12Z keeps up the expectation with increasing Polar incursions T+174 pick of the run Christmas Eve 

 

[Summer Sun]

High pressure over Europe drags up a lot of mild air in between Christmas and New year

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

High pressure over Europe drags up a lot of mild air in between Christmas and New year

Hopefully a mild outlier for that period. :- )

[IDO]

2 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Any thing to back it up. Looks pretty mobile and plenty of wintry Ness for Northern and upland areas standard stuff

FWIW Christmas Day now a washout into Boxing Day. Not that it will happen, but hard to call that wintry: 

And remember uppers generally downgrade on the GFS as we approach T0. The GEM is quite mild already washing out the upper temps:

Zonal for sure but cold zonality not really. As for snow, sea-level unlikely IMO even up North, down south no chance at the moment. After D10 upper anomalies way above average for western Europe. That promises a very mild post Christmas period, though that is to do with the trending resurgence to mid-lat of the Azores energy; however where the core high sits will guide us to surface temps and on this run very mild, conversely the 06z was cool.