Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

[booferking]

5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Surely this is the coldest snowiest run i have EVER seen in the internet era!!

I have to agree with you 100%..

[Scandinavian High.]

Hi could this chart bring snow down to the south east England in this setup thanks.

[radiohead]

[cornish snow]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

Just for Fun but in FI even areas on the South cost are under 20cm of snow!  Would be a long cold snowy spell for the UK if the 06z GFS came off !

 

Heaven above,even i might see something white

[mhielte]

Just now, abbie123 said:

Hi could this chart bring snow down to the south east England in this setup thanks.

Absolutely, as could the rest of the run thereafter!

[BARRY]

In all the years that i have been on this Forum it always the same when we get to the the reliable time scale if it's mild it is taken as Gospel, but when it's chilly people always knock it.

  

[swfc]

Well the 6z if nothing else has cheered folk up.Great run just to watch it develop from start to finish.Obv wont get there but a near perfect set up and as SM said post mark that epic snow storm .

[SMU]

11 minutes ago, radiohead said:

Ha -17c in London. That would be a shock to everyone..

[ALL ABOARD]

First Cobra run I have seen in a whileeeee???

[chionomaniac]

1 minute ago, WINTRY WALES said:

How nice to see you!

 

 

Thanks. I think we now have a 'THAT GFS' moment to match the ECM!

[Cloud 10]

11 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

-14c uppers touching the NE coast @ 288

The whole of the UK sub -10c

....

 

Never has that avatar been more apt!

 

[blizzard81]

Lets see what the control run shows and the ens for that matter. 

[radiohead]

We should prepare for an inevitable downgrade on the 12Z because I don't think much of an upgrade is possible following that...

Let's see where it stands with the GEFS.

 

[Gael_Force]

12 minutes ago, West is Best said:

I know. I almost totally agree. Even to see such a run is worth it

So reminiscent of 1978/9 where we had these north and north-east lows (point taken about whether it's a true polar low) which brought some massive snowfall. I can remember HUGE drifts: some of them were ten feet high over the hedgerows.

Can it still happen today? Is this just a dream?

It cannot be just a dream as computer modelling says the physics are there for it to be possible. NWP don't dream but will the same set up be there in ten days time? ... that's the dream.

Edited December 29, 2016 by Gael_Force

[Methuselah]

What a stonker! Not only has the Orthodox White Christmas re-surfaced, it's turned into a 7-day snow-fest!

[NL]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Ha -17c in London. That would be a shock to everyone..

Friday the 13..!!

[mhielte]

1 minute ago, pip22 said:

New thread anyone?

New pants more like 

Next we'll see just how much of an outlier this epic run is  Good to see the GFS maintain rather than sink the Atlantic ridging closer to the reliable timeframe. That straight tongue of WAA to Greenland is what we need going forward.

[Pembroke Dangler]

Iv got a really good feeling about this coming few weeks the ensembles should provide a clearer picture later but if there is support I think some local councils will be needing a s&*t load of grit. The kind of snow that could bring the country to a standstill may be just around the corner. 

[Frank Trough]

2 minutes ago, radiohead said:

We should prepare for an inevitable downgrade on the 12Z because I don't think much of an upgrade is possible following that...

Let's see where it stands with the GEFS.

 

I'm going to stick my neck out and say it will be "on the colder side" of the ensembles...

[bluearmy]

Of course a cobra run that wasn't a million miles away from the ec op at day 10 and fits fairly well with the ens in general is worth noting 

only comment I have is the amplification days 8/10 is probably overdone - the ridge may well have ended suppressed further south (and if the ens are on the same page probably will be in the mean anomolies) 

 

and most notably, it managed to drag Ed out of hibernation! 

Edited December 29, 2016 by bluearmy

[wightwootton]

8 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Frame it. Frame it because its unlikely to happen-

A full on snow event for the UK from top to tail in -12 continental air - Deep snow & accumulations followed by severe surface cold.

-12 dewpoints in london + -20c in Scotty

It all happened possibly due to the positioning of the High in the Atlantic (W of UK)  at around +138 ? In all the years that was the most exciting chart run ever!

Can the 12oz follow suite?

[Jason M]

Thing is, the seeds are sown at day 5ish because the heights to our south drop away and hey presto cold nirvana. Completely ludicrous run in isolation but it's what happens on this one at day 5 that I'm interested in. Interesting GEFS and evening runs today.

Edited December 29, 2016 by Jason M

[karlos1983]

Just now, wightwootton said:

It all happened possibly due to the positioning of the High in the Atlantic (W of UK)  at around +138 ? In all the years that was the most exciting chart run ever!

Can the 12oz follow suite?

Just a hunch, but I'm going to say No lol

[chris55]

As Steve says...what a chart!

every single corner of the UK with snowfall, and some parts seeing 36 hours of heavy snow !!!!!

Itll probably happen one day........ 

[radiohead]

Gale force winds along the east coast here. True blizzard conditions.

Edited December 29, 2016 by radiohead