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Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Another belting GEFS suite, can we get the 12z eps to agree and then get some run to run consistency?

Agreed very good.................P4 has the WOW factor for sure

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Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl

Despite any inconsistencies in the op charts, one thing has been consistent in them lately, that is by the end of the runs, the strat is looking decidedly unhealthy compared to its 'archery target' form of late-

gfsnh-10-384.png

Evidence of its weakened state beginning to emerge?.......

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

One for the diary?

Given the range there is a fairly strong signal for an Easterly type flow to set up later in the second week of January within GFS ensembles.

(Usual caveats apply for such long range signals, but it is there)

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

The ens will fall into line later or tomorrow morning.Im sorry that sounds negative ...sorry again got cut off, i dont buy into fab ens suites when the ops are consistently underwhelming, gawd i would LOVE to be wrong though..

Whilst I don't agree with you about ens - they are the best method in the 15d range, I do agree on this occasion there will be no sustained HLB.

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Posted
  • Location: Newton Aycliffe, County Durham... 90m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow and thunderstorms :)
  • Location: Newton Aycliffe, County Durham... 90m asl

Only 24hrs difference in the two ensemble charts below but you can clearly see there is more colder options on the latest 12z run compaired to yesterday. Also after the initial first northerly, the upper 850's rise a little more before the second fall around 6th.

27thgraphe3_1000_306_141___Londres.gif28thgraphe3_1000_306_141___Londres (1).gif

Mean colder too from 6/7th with the Op on its own really in FI

Lots of cold members so i would say all to play for and lets see what happens over this weekend... i'm sure to see snow :cold:

 

Edited by doctor32
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Posted
  • Location: Barnsley
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Barnsley
37 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

The ENS do not support the Op and look much better at day 8. No spoiler low

IMG_3897.PNG

Day 10 and there are some lovely northerners, mean back down do -5c again, not sure why so negative in here.

I can only imagine it is due to repeated failures in the past! We feel less disappointed if we 'expect' the worst to happen :)

GEFS looks great with the op out on its own. Perhaps it is on to something, perhaps not. Good to see repeated signals for more incursions from the north...again ;)It'll be very interesting to see where the ECM goes this evening...

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
9 minutes ago, Banbury said:

ENS look ok

P 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 ( cracker ) , 6 ( ish ) , 7 , 9 , 10 , 11 , 13 , 14 , 17 , 18  ( Belter ),

 

 

Certainly a cold outlook i'd say

Yes, a brilliant suite, not  a million miles away from being a majority flatliner suite at the back end, which is a very strong signal in the extended range, the problem is like that ECM suite the other day, the only way is probably down, if we can get some consistency run to run and an ECM eps upgrade this evening then we might be in business after all but as ever more runs needed.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

A cold start to 2017 then a slight recovery around the 4th to 6th before the 850's fall away again

gefsens850London0.png

Inverness hits 22 out of 22 on the snow row on Sunday it wasn't a white Christmas but it might be a white new year for some in the north

gefsens850Inverness0.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, a brilliant suite, not  a million miles away from being a majority flatliner suite at the back end, which is a very strong signal in the extended range, the problem is like that ECM suite the other day, the only way is probably down, if we can get some consistency run to run and an ECM eps upgrade this evening then we might be in business after all but as ever more runs needed.

Or even colder lol

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

The problem is the ENS often look great at day 8/9+ yet when they get into a reliable timeframe the OP moves away from anything sustained. Maybe it's just sods law but this always seems happen.

 

The GEFS have been very consistent in the last day during the day 8:9 period onwards so it's definitely of interest but my advice with the ensembles is to be cautious reading too much into them.

Edited by Weathizard
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Posted
  • Location: Barnsley
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Barnsley
Just now, Summer Sun said:

A cold start to 2017 then a slight recovery around the 4th to 6th before the 850's fall away again

gefsens850London0.png

 

 

Good to see the clustering from the 6th-9th Jan of falling 850s indicating another surge of cold from the NW/N :)

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

Ladies cut the arguing out its boring!!!!

Be interesting to see where ecm sits shortly but if i was a betting man id go middle ground.ens ete are pretty good and imo i woudnt rule out a move towards a modest easterly in the output during this week!!!! uto

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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

Agree with several of the above posts - the 12z GEFS are actually very good with strong clustering of sub -10hPa runs.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.aspx?model=gfs&var=2&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.1257&lid=ENS&country=de&zip=&bw=true

Good trend.

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: SE London Bromley
  • Weather Preferences: Very Cold with Fog, Frost and Snow all Hitting the Spot
  • Location: SE London Bromley
55 minutes ago, Banbury said:

Why do you guys always hang everything on the OP

Here is the Control

gensnh-0-1-240.png

Is the control more reliable and where would on find it ?  (is it alright to ask questions -mods)

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Lots of posts hidden, To save some members time please stick to to sensible polite model discussion.

Thanks.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
1 hour ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

I don't see a great deal changing ahead, the models are finding their way.   I asked the other had there been an SSW and reply was no and thus then I thought the HLB beauties wouldn't hold long.  But mind you the slug and blocked Atlantic has stumped everyone so who really knows.

However, there is masses (and i mean masses) of seriously cold air to tap into and building and I am convinced a major arctic/continental arctic outbreak is coming for us around mid month onwards.  Before that we are already going to get some nice cold conditions 

BFTP

 

I don't profess to know whether or not your mid-January prediction will come to fruition, Fred...? But, going by what the models are suggesting, this year bears quite a resemblance to those late 1960s' jobs that I - just about - still recall...Contrary to popular belief (judging from the current level of disappointment) your average UK winter does not consist of a single three-months'-long howling blizzard!:shok:

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