Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

[AGAL]

16 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

Careful, you won't get any likes for not telling it as it is!!! :-)

Sadly, the 36 hour shot on New Years is as good as it gets in the foreseeable!

The GFS doesn't exactly scream rush down to B&Q and break out the rock salts

[mcweather]

Unlike last year With none of the atmospheric drivers running having a big enough effect over and above any of the others. This winter more than any other it is completely pointless looking beyond seven days. I think we will see some genuinely wintry weather but it pop unexpectedly up in short time frame

[Ali1977]

Control much better than the Op with the high holding to our NW

[Polar Maritime]

Some post hidden, Model Output Discussion only please.

Thanks please continue.

[Mucka]

I mentioned a few of the more obvious "moving parts" earlier but I neglected to mention the cut off low to our SW (you could go on and on with such complex setups)

 

I mention that because previously it was well behaved and further out but lately it is being programmed to move up the Western flank of the ridge which kills the amplification

and then phases with the trough 

Again there is plenty of wiggle room for how this low behaves and it will have a big influence on the pattern from 96h through 144.

Thereafter it is about how fast and flat or slow and amplified it is upstream as to whether we get another bite at the cherry - it just so happens that GFS 12z Op throws us a negative at every available chance so I regard it as very plausible but also worse case scenario.

The niggle I have is how poor UKMO is too and even GEM is pretty progressive.

I expect ECM to be less rabid and vicious and to spare cold lovers the same savaging though,

"The fat lady has not yet arrived" (Hope that doesn't trigger some Partisans to blow up a railway)

 

Edited December 28, 2016 by Mucka

[chris55]

19 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

 

We don't necessarily need sustained high lat blocking to get some colder conditions with the potential for some snowfall.

Plus extended range ensembles from both GFS and ECM not to mention EC46 and Glosea are not the most solid forecast tool, sure they can give a best guess scenario but how many times have we seen that flip in the mid/long term recently. For me the best bet is to just ride the wave of winter and see what unfolds without making to many long reach analysis.

[Methuselah]

Just now, AGAL said:

The GFS doesn't exactly scream rush down to B&Q and break out the rock salts

Indeed not; but, neither does it suggest purchasing half-a-million charcoal briquettes:

The NY teaser is still on (maybe cold enough for snow - though generally marginal) and, more importantly, the Orthodox White Christmas is on again - but does raise the obvious question: why worry about 'might' happen twelve-or-more days' hence?

Certainly no sign of anything remotely resembling last-year's abomination!

[Geordiesnow]

22 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

 

I think that is personally quite a fair reflection on the current output as the details are uncertain but the trend is certainly not for high latitude blocking as of yet however its one of those outputs where things could change quite quickly. Again i'm encouraged at the models wanting to develop a cold pool to our east so whilst that is there, then there is always some hope. 

[Snowman.]

7 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Control much better than the Op with the high holding to our NW

I think that's the previous run, just a glitch. Below is the control.

GEFS seems to have jumped ship with the low in the Atlantic now becoming a spoiler. 

 

Edited December 28, 2016 by SN0WM4N

[booferking]

The pv could,nt be any different between control & op plenty miles in this yet.

[MR EXTREMES]

Well tonight the end of the garden path has been found.

But part 2 starts soon and a cold nights cool days under winter blue sky's is not the worst and no zonal train.

It's been a hard 4 years.

but hey still reckon there's a chance either the models flip again in the morning,

or by the weekend were have northern blocking and another northerly.

but for now not worst outcome if the 12z are correct that is.

[Ali1977]

The ENS do not support the Op and look much better at day 8. No spoiler low

Day 10 and there are some lovely northerners, mean back down do -5c again, not sure why so negative in here.

Edited December 28, 2016 by Ali1977

[stewfox]

GFS 12z That's two  'short lived northerlies' in the first week of the New Year. 

Lets see what we have within reliable time frames and how awful it all is 

1 January 

-10c 850s uk check

2 January -5c 850s uk check

3 January -5c 850s uk check

6 January -10c 850s UK check

7 January 2017 -10c 850s uk check

 

Edited December 28, 2016 by stewfox

[Snowman.]

7 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

The ENS do not support the Op and look much better at day 8. No spoiler low

Actually they support it, just the OP was probably worst case, check the control run it has it but it behaves itself much better. So its just another variable to track but the UKMO is in dire need a of a kick up the a**

It can be friend or foe at the moment, lets hope for friend.

Edited December 28, 2016 by SN0WM4N

[The PIT]

UKMO likes to collapse the high much more rapidly than the GFS at T144. Gem agrees with the UKMO so it's going to be interesting what the ECM comes up with.

[Mucka]

9 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

The ENS do not support the Op and look much better at day 8. No spoiler low

You're right Ali. It is only backed by a minority. The much larger clusters go for some form of Northerly outbreak and more sustained blocking to our West.

It is to be noted they do not have that cut off low to our SW playing spoiler and moving N as with GFS 12z Op and upstream is less progressive.

Edited December 28, 2016 by Mucka

[Geordiesnow]

5 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

The ENS do not support the Op and look much better at day 8. No spoiler low

ensembles run at a lower evolution so probably less likely to pick up any spoiler shortwaves. That said, its still uncertain what will happen for sure after the short lived cold blast but any cold snowy set ups look unlikely for the moment. 

[Ali1977]

Best set of ENS this season coming up - v good now average -6/7 at day 11

[Banbury]

19 minutes ago, AGAL said:

The GFS doesn't exactly scream rush down to B&Q and break out the rock salts

Why do you guys always hang everything on the OP

Here is the Control

[Stuie]

@SN0WM4N Saw a model performance chart yesterday and pretty sure the UKMO was the 2nd best performing model recently.

[mulzy]

The 12z GEFS much more amplified in the 9-12 day range.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I don't see a great deal changing ahead, the models are finding their way.   I asked the other had there been an SSW and reply was no and thus then I thought the HLB beauties wouldn't hold long.  But mind you the slug and blocked Atlantic has stumped everyone so who really knows.

However, there is masses (and i mean masses) of seriously cold air to tap into and building and I am convinced a major arctic/continental arctic outbreak is coming for us around mid month onwards.  Before that we are already going to get some nice cold conditions 

BFTP

 

[feb1991blizzard]

Another belting GEFS suite, can we get the 12z eps to agree and then get some run to run consistency?

[Snowman.]

Just now, Stuie W said:

@SN0WM4N Saw a model performance chart yesterday and pretty sure the UKMO was the 2nd best performing model recently.

Today it wants gate crash an already poor but still somewhat alive party. 

GEFS looking great, I have noticed that a lot them slow down the low heading through the states allowing for more amplification.

[northwestsnow]

9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Another belting GEFS suite, can we get the 12z eps to agree and then get some run to run consistency?

The ens will fall into line later or tomorrow morning.Im sorry that sounds negative ...sorry again got cut off, i dont buy into fab ens suites when the ops are consistently underwhelming, gawd i would LOVE to be wrong though..

Edited December 28, 2016 by northwestsnow