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Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

ECM1-240.GIF?26-0

As predicted - rebuilding heights in the mid-Atlantic. Trough angle to west of that looks okay to allow the high to try and build north, but the Arctic profile has the Canadian vortex segment trying to join the Siberian one so we'd probably see the ridge ending up more toward Iceland, then Svalbard, with us relying on the Scandi trough drifting not just S but S then SW as it decays, in order to prevent a 'sinker'.

Troposphere-led splits are tricky beasts to nail down and more often than not end up too short-lived to produce much interest - but expert advice has long been leaning toward more of a mid-lat block which could spend some time over Scandi if we get lucky enough. A cross-polar ridge is a wildcard that I expect depends on what exactly happens with the tropical activity that the models are struggling so much to resolve at the moment.

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
8 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Right then - one run of one model suggests that the HP will sink - it may well do? But, come on, eh? When was the last time we saw prospects like this?:D

True Ed but how often do you see a model backtrack?

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Posted
  • Location: Locksbottom, NW Kent 92m asl(310ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers but not too hot and colder winters with frost and snow
  • Location: Locksbottom, NW Kent 92m asl(310ft)
4 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Right then - one run of one model suggests that the HP will sink - it may well do? But, come on, eh? When was the last time we saw prospects like this?:D

Agree.If it becomes a trend then fair enough but it has taken 25 days to see charts like GFS 12z lol!!.It is amazing though that you very rarely get GFS,ECM & UKMO singing from the same hymn sheet when you want them to though!!

At least we have potential atm for coldies:)!! 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl

I'd say the 18z gfs will be different to the 12z but then so will tomorrows and so on, at this stage I'd say it's all looking very positive and hopefully will continue to do so

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

Some posts which add nothing have been removed.Sensible and on topic posts please all.

Thanks.

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Posted
  • Location: Morden, Surrey.
  • Location: Morden, Surrey.

I wish some can take perspective here...

 

WE ARE GOING COLD!

(Pretty much nailed on with the initial blast from the north)

 

AFTER..

how cold and how snowy the backend of the 1st week of Jan onwards is anyone's guess but most signs point to cold atm so let's all worry about that down the line. 

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

The ECM was always going to back track a little as this mornings run was epic and a rare chart, didn't quite expect a big back track and though something akin to the GFS and UKMO but hey ho!! I imagine that the EPS due out at 2030 might give us more of a clue as to this run, lets hope the Op is on the milder and we have a much better cold set, the op this morning was epic but the EPS were nothing special as a whole.

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Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
7 minutes ago, london-snow said:

I wish some can take perspective here...

 

WE ARE GOING COLD!

(Pretty much nailed on with the initial blast from the north)

 

AFTER..

how cold and how snowy the backend of the 1st week of Jan onwards is anyone's guess but most signs point to cold atm so let's all worry about that down the line. 

You could also take another viewpoint in that the very dry Winter continues with a high cell replacing the old one for this week. Dry and mild replaced with dry and cold.

The frustration for me is that I'm a weather fanatic.....storms, cold, etc and my least favourite is dry and boring. This Winter has been v boring so far....yawnfest!

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Just discussion on what the "current model outputs" are showing in here please.

Thanks please continue. 

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m

graphe_ens3_lse8.gif

These are certainly the best ensembles for my area I've seen for a while. Mean around -5c for upper 850's with plenty of snow chance.

The ECM has got me slightly on edge tonight at what could potentially happen, cold and dry rather than cold and snowy.

Definitely will be viewing tomorrow mornings runs from behind the sofa :ninja:

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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent

Looks like we are moving in to an extended cold period let's get the cold in the snow will follow .:D it's looking much better for us coldies the models will chop and change but it's looking very interesting for sure..

IMG_0108.PNG

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
1 hour ago, SN0WM4N said:

Compare today's 12z and yesterdays 12z the ecm has done well to continue 

Absolutely. Looking back at the ECM over the past 4 days, brilliant continuity on the whole. Really pleased to see this, as it looks like it is going to nail the one and only north Atlantic height rise of the winter so far. Massive improvement in performance in this region compared with the last couple of years.

Totally understandable that outputs are going to vary after T168/T192 given the complex interaction of small troughs and general ridging in the Azores area. 

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
7 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

The 12z DET sat comfortably within scope of 00z clusters/ENS. Just one of a few potential outcomes retrospectively but let's see where it sits versus ensembles this time. Where ECMWF monthly heads tonight is of particular interest, given paucity of signals beyond Jan week 1 in last Thursday's outing... Incidentally, someone posted along lines of UKMO-GM being of no credence at T+144, but I've never seen evidence for that published or cited elsewhere.

Is the change to cold on New Year's Day coming with the threat of snow Ian, or is this more of a coastal threat like many Northerlies bring? 

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Posted
  • Location: North Somerset, UK
  • Location: North Somerset, UK

PS What is worth noting re UKMO is that the GM isn't modified at Ops Centre beyond T+132. That's considered a reasonable cut-off point for fair medium range steer, in terms of tweaking additional fields such as frontal positions/shortwave elements & associated upper forcing/ppn/cloud cover/ etc.

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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

Here is the latest comparison charts for N Atlantic at 168t. First chart is UKMO and other ECM hres. Clearly quite a difference with the UKMO not sinking the high SE as shown by ECM. Still from this chart at day 7  looks like a delay of clearance of the front from the South coast ( UKMO ) maybe 12/24 hours difference in timing. Think UKMO is the likely prognosis for this time span.

 C

ukm2.2017010212.168.lant.troplant.prp.fcst.gentracker.png

ecm2.2017010212.168.lant.troplant.prp.fcst.gentracker.png

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Oh dear, the ECM mean has flattened the pattern at T240 in sharp contrast to the 0z, expect the extended eps to be a much poorer and Atlantic driven suite than the 0z when the London graph comes out latter.

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

ECM mean at 240 showing the cold heading into the USA, following the Op by the looks of it!! Not ideal.

I know means are masked, hopefully someone can shed more light on the different clusters.

IMG_3881.PNG

De Bilt ENS over the water however show plenty of cold runs are amongst the EPS with the Op one of the mildest for the whole run - interesting!! 2nd week of Jan could be much better.

IMG_3882.PNG

Edited by Ali1977
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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

The ECM mean is massively different to the GFS mean... Bizzare! 

ECM must have quite a lot of UK high style setups amongst it's suite.

Edited by Weathizard
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Eps not nearly as good for cold (wrt previous suite) as the Atlantic upper pattern pretty flat days 8/10. This looks to be in response to a mean energy transfer Siberian vortex to Canadian which wasn't apparent previous few runs. This a move towards the earlier gefs but a cross between the two could be pretty muted re any deep cold for us if we can't drop the euro heights convincingly. 

rather hoped we would retain some polar profile continuity. No chickens can be counted apart from an initial cool down days 6/8 to below av temps. 

Edited by bluearmy
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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
22 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

. Incidentally, someone posted along lines of UKMO-GM being of no credence at T+144, but I've never seen evidence for that published or cited elsewhere.

Hi

I was referring to when it forecasts height rises in the Greenland region, as with the other models, like ECM D10 cross polar flows to GFS Atlantic domination, each model has their foibles, and UKMO, based on my experience blows up the heights in that region.

One example found was this:

 

T144 chart with sharper ridge in to Greenland: UN144-21.gif

The following day's run, therefore T120: UN120-21.gif

And T0:ECH1-0.gif

No one argues that UKMO is 2nd to ECM as a whole, but it has weaknesses, and from my anecdotal chart watching this one has been pretty obvious.

 

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