Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Banbury said:

WOW

Id like the control to be the leader, stunning

[SMU]

Yep all in all a good celebratory day thus far-

The initial ridging seems fairly well alligned now from all 3, then some questions around how far the high rolls over -with perhaps the 00z GFS being the flattest solution at day 8-9 & the ECM being the most Amplified in the same timeline..

Post that signs of another go at the cherry in differing scenarios - however lets get phase 1 resolved first without getting to carried away - Very cold upper air pushing south as we enter 2017 so thats great-

As for snow, well the more amplified the better, PTB 20 brings north of a foot of snow for the NE...  Lets have some of that!!

Edited December 26, 2016 by Steve Murr

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Steve Murr said:

Yep all in all a good celebratory day thus far-

The initial ridging seems fairly well alligned now from all 3, then some questions around how far the high rolls over -with perhaps the 00z GFS being the flattest solution at day 8-9 & the ECM being the most Amplified in the same timeline..

Post that signs of another go at the cherry in differing scenarios - however lets get phase 1 resolved first without getting to carried away - Ver cold air pushing south as we enter 2017 so thats great-

As for snow, well the more amplified the better, PTB 20 brings north of a foot of snow for the NE...  Lets have some of that!!

Exciting!!!!!!

[Paul_1978]

5 minutes ago, IDO said:

but we are seeing a few permutations and all (so far) lead to cold. The odds seem very much to favour an extended cold spell, though quite where it leads us viz surface conditions, still remains elusive.

"winter is coming".

Are you feeling alright IDO? 

[ArHu3]

10 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Looking at some of those projected 850s (and assuming cloudless skies and little or no wind) some places, especially the fog-prone, could well see minima below -10C?

Waiting to discover when/where/if the snow's going to come from, however, could cause some frustration?

no chance for the lake effect to happen?

[SMU]

anyone looking for what a 'Classic' 

-EPO / -NAO couplet looks like then look no further than this run - PTB 5

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

no chance for the lake effect to happen?

The minor adjustment I am hoping for, would allow for just that!

[blizzard81]

4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

anyone looking for what a 'Classic' 

-EPO / -NAO couplet looks like then look no further than this run - PTB 5

A thing of beauty. Well, I for one wasn't expecting these upgrades this morning. We have received some special boxing day presents from the models today, especially the ecm op

[gottolovethisweather]

On 21/12/2016 at 13:00, gottolovethisweather said:

Yes indeed Legritter, I think some cold days ahead as we close out the year, a tad deja vu, but I'm not bothered, dry, frosty by night, chance of ice days all suggest it'll be fantastic for walks out in the countryside. 

 

1

 

 

BUMP. 

 

Not that I've followed the outputs of late as I've been otherwise engaged but it seems five days on, most predictions are still on course for a rather cold end to this year and potentially and even colder beginning to the new one. Glad to witness plenty of consistency in the modelling (based on other folk's analysis of it) as there often is when HP is ruling the roost somewhere nearby. 

Get outside and enjoy the beautiful weather away from parts NW while you can, people. 

 

 

 

Edited December 26, 2016 by gottolovethisweather

[northwestsnow]

LOL GFS6Zis actually one of the milder solutions! And its a jolly cold run itself!

[weatherguy]

Holy moley, ECM goes all out with its 240 chart!!! 

Won't be getting my ramp out just yet however, GFS +240 below for comparison, shows the huge spread in solutions...

[Summer Sun]

Early Jan onwards we see the 850's going below zero with the Op on the warm side from the 4th to 8th

Inverness has the best chance of snow

[feb1991blizzard]

This is where its starting to get interesting, the number of flatliners starting to increase with each run, IF the trend continues for anywhere near 48 hours, then a fridgid spell is guaranteed, the very worst we will do though is a cold spell of some description.

[SMU]

Lets have a last ramp before later-

one( short) window for IMBY

Minus -14 & 510 thickness-

The 850 table shows T162 being about the point where the cold is in for the SE ( 144 for scotland )

S

 

[karyo]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

LOL GFS6Zis actually one of the milder solutions! And its a jolly cold run itself!

Am I dreaming???

[Southender]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Lets have a last ramp before later-

one( short) window for IMBY

Minus -14 & 510 thickness-

The 850 table shows T162 being about the point where the cold is in for the SE ( 144 for scotland )

S

 

Mother Thames snow machine on standby Steve...

[Ben Sainsbury]

9 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Early Jan onwards we see the 850's going below zero with the Op on the warm side from the 4th to 8th

Inverness has the best chance of snow

What is positive to note is for a 10 day spell from 1st Jan to 11th Jan the majority of the runs don't reach >0 850hpa temp bare a small few. Being in London this is something we haven't seen for a while.

Edited December 26, 2016 by Ben Sainsbury

[Gowon]

16 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Yep all in all a good celebratory day thus far-

The initial ridging seems fairly well alligned now from all 3, then some questions around how far the high rolls over -with perhaps the 00z GFS being the flattest solution at day 8-9 & the ECM being the most Amplified in the same timeline..

Post that signs of another go at the cherry in differing scenarios - however lets get phase 1 resolved first without getting to carried away - Very cold upper air pushing south as we enter 2017 so thats great-

As for snow, well the more amplified the better, PTB 20 brings north of a foot of snow for the NE...  Lets have some of that!!

I have to say, I much prefer this new change of attitude, SM! ..No more premature ramping

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Lets have a last ramp before later-

one( short) window for IMBY

Minus -14 & 510 thickness-

The 850 table shows T162 being about the point where the cold is in for the SE ( 144 for scotland )

S

 

Yes, heavy snow showers for you there, the mother of all beltings for Northern France as well.

[Ali1977]

Awesome ENS, I'm still thinking they could get better and as Ian F mentioned, this cold could stay for a long time...The models showing this, not necessarily Ian saying this

Edited December 26, 2016 by Ali1977

[JennyJane1]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, heavy snow showers for you there, the mother of all beltings for Northern France as well.

what date is this?

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, JennyJane1 said:

what date is this?

1st / 2nd Jan but it is only one perturbation of aa 20 member suite but shows what could realistically happen.

[JennyJane1]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

1st / 2nd Jan but it is only one perturbation of aa 20 member suite but shows what could realistically happen.

Thanks, I will keep an eye on the model thread as it gets nearer.

[Penrith Snow]

The only problem with this mornings excellent runs is that things can only get worse!

I am worried that the 12z and future runs will downgrade as so often happens, but hey let's enjoy it while we can, IF these charts verify it would have been a remarkable turnaround from the appalling charts that were being vomitted out of the computers a few days ago.

Either way this is model watching at its best.

Just a thought but for those of us who remember the great cold spell of January 1987 it's worth noting the previous Decembe was mild and non descript with little frost and no snow.......a bit like this year.

Thats my Ramp for the day.

Andy

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Well well well, hope you all had a merry Christmas and are having a jolly Boxing Day 

beginning to see some agreement within the far end of the mid timeframe scale with the big two as from this morning, which is the main thing.

just to note also, the sun has been blank with no sunspots at all for 3 days in a row and even before that, only one or two tiny ones over the past week. Just wondering if this is playing into our hands and if the models take these kind of things into account. 

Anyway enjoy those turkey sandwiches and Boxing Day buffets ! I'm sure many will be keeping a close eye on these runs from now on in!!