Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

[knocker]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

While we are on the subject of who has access to what, how much is a weatherbell subscription please?

$240 annually or 25 monthly Special discount for Squirrels

Edited December 25, 2016 by knocker

[Frosty.]

38 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Met office 30 dayer looks to be from the ec 46 which built a high anomoly to our east. Assume mogreps sees similar 

I expected better..but then again

At least high pressure is soon to take charge for most of the uk with frost and fog apart from the very far nw / n which looks more unsettled.

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, knocker said:

$240 annually or 25 monthly Special discount for Squirrels

Its surprising really given that that even the rank bottom subscription on the ECMWF website is thousands.

[gottolovethisweather]

Well, the future must be bright given some of the outputs of late and the fact that the sun even came out briefly here in Newbury, complete with seasonal drizzle, so a kind of a drizzly sunshine, lol. If any the films I've watched of late verify, it'll be an interesting end to 20-16 and beginning of 2017.

SNOWMAGGEDON and ICETASTROPHE 

If only? One never knows.

 

Have a great day, all. 

 

Best Wishes

gottolovethisweather

 

 

Edited December 25, 2016 by gottolovethisweather

[bluearmy]

7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Its surprising really given that that even the rank bottom subscription on the ECMWF website is thousands.

Yes and no - the bastardi/d'aleo videos etc are quite insightful but the ecm ens data is pretty well all mean and anomolies so no idea re clustering or spreads 

[A.J]

I've had far too much to drink today, my missus says that come tomorrow morning my output will be definitely be missing some data....merry christmas all  

[Paul_1978]

2 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Looks great crewe, unfortunately the latest meto update is very underwhelming!! They are talking of high pressure to the SE of the UK which suggests to me the mid Atlantic high collapsing across us into Europe. 

Your glass is always half empty!

[That ECM]

Noticeable improvement from this morning from the ukmo.

However gfs goes the other way.

Edited December 25, 2016 by That ECM

[Summer Sun]

Not the best of runs from GFS

Northerly to start the year

The high then move over the UK quite quickly

Not warm/mild by any means plenty of surface cold and dry weather to be had bar some isolated wintry showers

[Cheshire Freeze]

3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Not the best of runs from GFS

Northerly to start the year

The high then move over the UK quite quickly

Not warm/mild by any means plenty of surface cold and dry weather to be had bar some isolated wintry showers

An improvement in the longer term though...

Something is stirring...

Cross polar ridging is a repeating theme...even if it is seemingly pushed back. Usually it means that there is a signal being picked up.

Edited December 25, 2016 by CreweCold

[snow mad]

6 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Not the best of runs from GFS

Northerly to start the year

The high then move over the UK quite quickly

Not warm/mild by any means plenty of surface cold and dry weather to be had bar some isolated wintry showers

I quite like his run after 240hrs

[Summer Sun]

Just now, CreweCold said:

An improvement in the longer term though...

Something is stirring...

 

Yep anything better still at week 2, for now, a case of wait and watch but not getting your hopes up

[northwestsnow]

Excellent gfs12z with some very cold conditions under the high! 

Into fi and its actually amazing !!

Edited December 25, 2016 by northwestsnow

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, Summer Sun said:

Yep anything better still at week 2, for now, a case of wait and watch but not getting your hopes up

If it's a snowy set up you want to establish, it doesn't get much better than this

[bluearmy]

More missing data ............

[That ECM]

Ever wondered why fi is fi?

[feb1991blizzard]

Stonking run hemispherically, that's exactly what you want to give longjevity of cold wave 2 slicing the vortex.

[cheshire snow]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Excellent gfs12z with some very cold conditions under the high! 

Into fi and its actually amazing !!

Indeed the old saying"lets get the cold in place first"then see what follows

C.S

[Brenda 'Bee' Lau]

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, Brenda 'Bee' Lau said:

Looks like those crazy CFS runs you see at 700 hours +

A real pipe freezer to end the GFS run this afternoon.

[Pembroke Dangler]

Just now, Brenda 'Bee' Lau said:

Oh my days that's got to be the biggest channel low Iv seen with its little bro just behind please Santa a late Christmas present is better than no Christmas present merry Christmas all 

[Jason M]

Cold spell forecast at 300 hours plus on GFS. I think there's a trend here somewhere

I think I know where we are headed.............

 

Edited December 25, 2016 by Jason M

[snow mad]

Reminds me a bit of 2013... nothing great height wise but just enough to deflect what we want in the right direction. At least this is January and not march this time if it happens of course....

[Lampostwatcher]

On Tuesday, December 13, 2016 at 20:09, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Just one more, the personal remark not an issue for me and no complaints made but you have your rules. The one liners are generally when on a bus to or from Croydon on the iPhone which is useless for lengthy posting and uploading model run stills.  Still think the ECM run wasn't a good run.  No doubt this will be removed but just needed to put it out there......

Ingham85.....my career is somewhat different 

BFTP

Gfs fantastic in f1 

Ukmo looks fantastic at t144

Can ECM make at a hatrick 

[Stuie]

Even the jest stream looks like it doesn`t know how things will pan out either..